Social perception of systemic risks
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The article distinguishes between two types of risks: conventional and systemic risks. Conventional risks can be contained in space and time, follow linear cause-effect relationships and can be addressed with effective and pointed interventions into the cause-effect chain. Systemic risks, however, are characterized by high complexity, transboundary effects, stochastic relationships, nonlinear cause-effect patterns with tipping points, and are often associated with less public attention than they require. The article addresses the reasons why systemic risks seem to be attenuated in public perception. The article goes on to consider how the social amplification of risk framework is useful in the context of systemic risks and describes needed extensions of that framework. It identifies practical tools for assessing the significance of perceptions for systemic risk situations. Finally, it argues that a graphic representation and simulation of evolving systemic risks and potential countermeasures as well as a participatory deliberative approach of inclusive risk governance are suitable governance strategies for preventing, mitigating, or managing systemic risks.
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Systemic risk is inherently complex, uncertain, and ambiguous due to the dynamic interplay of factors that amplify or attenuate causal relationships.
“Different from the conventional aspects of risks, systemic risk is inherently complex, uncertain, and ambiguous due to the dynamic interplay of factors that amplify or attenuate causal relationships.”
From Risk Governance, State Capacity, and Critical Human Security: Evolution of Risk Governance in Response to Systemic Risk in the UK and South Korea (2025) · cites this paper as Schweizer et al., 2022
Complexity intensifies uncertainty beyond statistical confidence levels, with systemic risks heightening ambiguity around both the magnitude and likelihood of adverse effects.
“Complexity intensifies uncertainty beyond statistical confidence levels, with systemic risks heightening ambiguity around both the magnitude and likelihood of adverse effects.”
From Risk Governance, State Capacity, and Critical Human Security: Evolution of Risk Governance in Response to Systemic Risk in the UK and South Korea (2025) · cites this paper as Schweizer et al., 2022
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Model-based Climate Action Plans for ambitious local emissions reduction: A project-focused approach
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Dyadic risk mechanisms–a nomenclature for 36 proto-cascading effects determining humanity’s future
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As vacinas no Brasil da pandemia: um estudo de percepção pública
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Black swans to gray rhinos: Robust decision making for Natech scenarios caused by floods
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Agent-Supported Foresight for AI Systemic Risks: AI Agents for Breadth, Experts for Judgment
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Constructing a cross-field scenario system to aware systemic risk: national security as an example
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Adawiah, A., Asmini, A., Umar, A., & Abdu, W. J. (2023) · Jurnal Obsesi Jurnal Pendidikan Anak Usia Dini · doi:10.31004/obsesi.v7i5.5154 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
From worshipping Tyche to playing with wild cards
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Characterizing the defense industry for risk management: a systems approach
Antai, I., & Hellberg, R. (2024) · Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics · doi:10.1108/jdal-08-2023-0008 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Uncertainty, risk and the Dutch energy transition. A commentary
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Kim, E., Oh, Y., & Kennett, P. (2025) · Social Policy and Society · doi:10.1017/s1474746425000144 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Shifting probabilities and distributions make predictions challenging, unlike conventional risks that are well understood and predictable within established frameworks (Schweizer et al ., 2022).”
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Nadeau, C. (2023) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-2023-23-ac3
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Lonergan, K. E., Köll, J. F., & Sansavini, G. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5084812
Kim, E., Kennett, P., & Kwon, H. (2025) · Social Policy and Society · doi:10.1017/s1474746425000296
Makrominas, M., Menelaou, A. A., & Kletou, D. (2025) · ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT · doi:10.3280/efe2025-001001
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Kras, H. R. (2025) · Victims & Offenders · doi:10.1080/15564886.2025.2553141
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Lu, B. C. Y. (2025) · International Conference on Computer Science and Management Technology (ICCSMT) · doi:10.1145/3795154.3795316
Kras, H. R. (2026) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009537001
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Früh, H. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-46851-4_25-1
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Qazi, A. J., & Aziz, F. (2026) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.70363
Keil, M., & Arning, K. (2026) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104989
- Authors
- Schweizer, P., Goble, R., & Renn, O.
- Affiliations
- Research Institute for Sustainability at GFZ (DE)
- Clark University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Schweizer, Pia‐Johanna
- Venue
- Risk Analysis
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021-10-02
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1455-1471
- ISSN
- 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-6924
- OpenAlex
- W3204432734
- Cited by
- 63
- References
- 122
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 8
- FWCI
- 12.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Risk Analysis (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Clark Digital Commons (Clark University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Publication Database IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
- Keywords
- systemic risk, risk perception, social amplification of risk, tipping points, transboundary effects, participatory deliberation, risk simulation, risk countermeasures
- MeSH terms
- Risk Management, Social Perception
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