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Cited by 3,885Risk Perception and ManagementDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsLeadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies

Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality

Slovic, Paul, Finucane, Melissa L., Peters, Ellen, MacGregor, Donald G.·2004·Risk Analysis
DOI 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.x
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Abstract

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The “analytic system” uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The “experiential system” is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange‐smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed “doses of feeling” into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too “coldly rational”? This article addresses these important questions.

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  • Under the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, affective responses to vivid outcome representations drive decision behavior by increasing motivational engagement.

    “Under the alternative risk-as-feelings hypothesis (Loewenstein et al. 2001;Slovic et al. 2004), affective responses to vivid outcome representations drive decision behavior by increasing motivational engagement.”

    From Limits of Interventions in AI-Assisted Decision Making (2026) · cites this paper as Slovic et al. 2004

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Authors
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G.
Affiliations
  • University of Oregon (US)
  • Kaiser Permanente Center for Health Research (US)
Corresponding author
Slovic, Paul
ORCID
Venue
Risk Analysis
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2004-04
Volume
24
Issue
2
Pages
311-322
ISSN
  • 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
  • 1539-6924
DOI
10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.x
OpenAlex
W2126824225
Cited by
3,885
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 153 · 2025: 161 · 2024: 160 · 2023: 181 · 2022: 247 · 2021: 299 · 2020: 259 · 2019: 224 · 2018: 215 · 2017: 238 · 2016: 193 · 2015: 213 · 2014: 236 · 2013: 190 · 2012: 162
FWCI
269.28
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 12 d)
Locations
  • Risk Analysis (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation
  • National Research Foundation
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
Keywords
risk perception, affect, reason and emotion, dual-process theory, analytical thinking, risk management, rational decision-making, cognitive biases
MeSH terms
Affect, Humans, Models, Psychological, Perception, Probability, Risk, Risk-Taking, Smoking, Terrorism

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