Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
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Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth’s radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
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All radiative forcing geoengineering techniques are still theoretical or at very early trial stages and carry a lot of uncertainty and risk in terms of practical large-scale deployment.
“All these techniques are still theoretical or at very early trial stages and carry a lot of uncertainty and risk in terms of practical large-scale deployment.”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
Current mitigation efforts and future emissions commitments are not sufficient to achieve the temperature goals set by the Paris agreement.
“There is growing evidence that confirms that current mitigation efforts, as well as future emissions commitments, are not sufficient to achieve the temperature goals set by the Paris agreement (Nieto et al. 2018;Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
Based on model simulations, the maximum cooling effect through cirrus cloud thinning is estimated to be in the range of 2-3.5 W/m2.
“Based on model simulations, the maximum cooling effect through this approach has been estimated to be in the range of 2-3.5 W/m 2 (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
There are no published costs for cirrus cloud thinning and this approach still requires further research to understand side effects and conduct appropriate research on potential delivery methods.
“According to Lawrence et al., there are no published costs for cirrus cloud thinning and this approach still requires further research to understand side effects as well as to conduct appropriate research on potential delivery methods (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
Based on an extensive literature review, the cooling potential for surface-based brightening is too limited, and substantial negative side effects are associated, such as disruption of desert ecosystems.
“According to Lawrence et al., based on an extensive literature review, the cooling potential for this approach is too limited.Furthermore, substantial negative side effects are associated, such as disruption of desert ecosystems (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
The potential cooling effect of marine sky brightening has been estimated between 0.8 and 5.4 W/m2, due to uncertainty, limited knowledge and spatial considerations.
“The potential cooling effect has been estimated between 0.8 and 5.4 W/m 2 , due to uncertainty, limited knowledge and spatial considerations (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
For space-based mirrors to be economically feasible, material transport costs need to be reduced from approximately $10,000/kg to less than $100/kg.
“For this technology to be economically feasible, material transport costs need to be reduced from approximately $10,000/kg to less than $100/kg (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
The maximum potential cooling from stratospheric aerosol injection is estimated between 2 and 5 W/m2.
“Through modelling and past volcanic eruption data, the maximum potential cooling from this approach is estimated between 2 and 5 W/ m 2 (Lawrence et al. 2018).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Lawrence et al. 2018
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Anthropogenic aerosol drives uncertainty in future climate mitigation efforts
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Mixed-phase regime cloud thinning could help restore sea ice
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- Authors
- Lawrence, M. G., Schäfer, S., Muri, H., Scott, V., Oschlies, A., Vaughan, N. E., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Haywood, J., & Scheffran, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Met Office (GB)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Lawrence, Mark G.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2018-09-13
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3734-3734
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6137062
- OpenAlex
- W2891242691
- Cited by
- 305
- References
- 203
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 2.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Boettcher Foundation
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (ComparCE-2, SPP 1689)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Brandenburger Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur
- Norges Forskningsråd (261862/E10, 229760, 261862, 229760/E10)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019951/1, NE/P019749/1, 1221323)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- geoengineering, Paris Agreement temperature goals, radiation balance, climate change mitigation, ethics of geoengineering
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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