Boom-and-Bust Development Patterns Across the Amazon Deforestation Frontier
Abstract
Boom and Bust: The Brazilian Amazon is renowned for its biodiversity and for its influence on climate regulation and geochemical cycles. It is also one of the country's poorest regions. For decades, much economic development has been pursued through conversion of forest for agriculture and cattle-ranching. Rodrigues et al. (p. 1435 ) investigated whether this pattern of land use brings lasting prosperity by analyzing data on the economic development of nearly 300 municipalities across the deforestation frontier. Relative development, in terms of life expectancy, literacy, and standard of living, increases as deforestation begins but then declines again as the frontier passes through. As a result, pre- and postfrontier levels of development are similarly low, indicating a pattern of boom and bust.
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The cross-sectional boom-bust results are a spurious artifact of spatial correlation, driven primarily by large, multifaceted, unobserved differences between municipalities in and around Amazonas and Maranhão.
“We show that the cross sectional results are a spurious artifact of spatial correlation, driven primarily by the large, multifaceted (and unobserved) differences between municipalities in the states of Amazonas and Maranhão.”
From Boom-bust patterns in the Brazilian Amazon (2015) · cites this paper as Rodrigues et al. (2009)
Census sector data presents a finer spatial scale than the municipal data traditionally used in socio-economic studies.
“As IBGE raw data are produced for 37,295 census sectors covering the entire Amazon, whereas there are only 775 Amazonian municipalities, the census sector data presents a finer spatial scale than the municipal data traditionally used in socio-economic studies (e.g.Rodrigues et al., 2009, Celentano et al., 2012and Weinhold et al., 2015).”
From Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation (2016) · cites this paper as Rodrigues et al., 2009
In the late 2000s, seminal studies evidenced a boom-and-bust development pattern in the Brazilian Amazon.
“In the late 2000s, seminal studies evidenced a boom-and-bust development pattern (Rodrigues et al., 2009, Celentano and Veríssimo, 2007and Celentano et al., 2012).”
From Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation (2016) · cites this paper as Rodrigues et al., 2009
The frontier classification proposed by Rodrigues et al. (2009) is not appropriate for the study because it is not inclusive; cells with a moderate extent of deforestation and low deforestation activity remain unclassified.
“In this regard, the frontier classification proposed by Rodrigues et al. (2009) is not appropriate since it is not inclusive.Indeed, cells with a moderate extent of deforestation and low deforestation activity remain unclassified (white cells in Fig. 1).”
From Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation (2016) · cites this paper as Rodrigues et al., 2009
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- Authors
- Rodrigues, A. S. L., Ewers, R. M., Parry, L., Souza, C., Veríssimo, A., & Balmford, A.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- IMAZON–Amazon Institute of People and the Environment, Belém, PA, Brazil.
- Imazon (BR)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Rodrigues, Ana S. L.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2009-06-12
- Volume
- 324
- Issue
- 5933
- Pages
- 1435-1437
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2058042183
- Cited by
- 330
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 29
- FWCI
- 19.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Latin American rural development
- Keywords
- Amazon deforestation, deforestation frontiers, human development, economic development, cattle ranching, logging, forest conversion, living standards, literacy, life expectancy, ecosystem services, financial incentives, development policy, Brazilian Amazon
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Brazil, Cities, Conservation of Natural Resources, Educational Status, Humans, Income, Life Expectancy, Population Dynamics, Socioeconomic Factors, Ecosystem
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