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Cited by 80Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementLand Use and Ecosystem ServicesEnergy, Environment, Economic Growth

Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation

Open access
Tritsch, Isabelle, Arvor, Damien·2016·Land Use Policy
DOI 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.018
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AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper argues that the Brazilian Amazon’s boom-and-bust development pattern reversed between 2000 and 2010, with post-frontier areas showing better socio-economic indicators than active frontier areas. It finds evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation, linked to strengthened environmental governance and market-oriented policies.

Key findings

  • Active frontier cells (classes C–E) fell from 4,310 to 1,268 cells, a 70% decrease, while post-frontier areas (F and G) rose from 1,425 to 3,010 cells and stabilized unclassified areas rose from 3,530 to 7,265 cells.
  • In 2000, post-frontier class G had lower socio-economic development than active frontier classes and was similar to pre-frontier class B; in 2010, post-frontier areas (F, G) had better socio-economic development than pre-frontier and active frontier areas, indicating the end of the boom-and-bust pattern.
  • Quadratic regressions found an EKC for both 2000 and 2010: β1 = 0.985437* and 0.322695*, and β2 = −0.029710* and −0.040279*. The 2000 inflection point was at 2.5 times the Brazilian minimum wage, while in 2010 the turning point was around one minimum wage per household.
  • In 1998–2000, 85.3% of total deforested area occurred in cells with mean income above one minimum wage, falling to 48.9% in 2008–2010; low-income cells (< one minimum wage) rose from 33.9% to 56.7%, and average deforestation activity in low-income cells increased from 0.61% to 0.85%. In 2010, incomes were always higher in inactive areas than in areas undergoing active deforestation, so no deforestation extent threshold was identified.

Methods

  • The authors crossed IBGE full-population census data for 2000 and 2010 at census sector scale with PRODES deforestation maps, projected both onto a 10 × 10 km regular grid, and analyzed 24,068 cells in 2000 and 23,123 cells in 2010 after exclusions.
  • They classified cells into seven frontier classes (A–G) based on deforestation extent and deforestation activity, then used Kruskal-Wallis and Tukey’s honestly significant difference tests to compare socio-economic variables across classes.
  • To test the EKC, they estimated a quadratic model: DEF = β0 + β1 INC + β2 INC² + ε, with income per household expressed relative to the Brazilian minimum wage (151 R$ in 2000 and 510 R$ in 2010), and identified thresholds using percentile groupings, moving averages, and ratios of median income in inactive versus active cells.

Limitations

  • The paper states that EKC application to tropical deforestation is debated, that EKC analyses often omit institutional factors, and that empirical shortcomings include choices about data properties, econometric strategy, deforestation measure, geographical area, and control variables; it also notes that panel data are usually preferred over cross-sectional analysis.
  • The paper states that PRODES treats deforestation as irreversible and does not account for forest regeneration, that urban areas were kept despite possible artifacts, that HDI could not be used at census scale, and that cells with No data values were deleted.
  • The text makes evident that the 2010 Tukey test did not confirm a boom pattern, that within-class variance increased and between-class separability decreased, and that the observed end of boom-and-bust may partly reflect “business as usual” frontier expansion; it also notes that political and economic crisis could weaken environmental governance.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.018

Cites

68 of 68 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

24 of 82 cited sources checked · 10 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisereasoning

    In the state of Mato Grosso, the generalization of double-cropping systems is a major driver of the decoupling of deforestation and crop production.

    “In the state of Mato Grosso, the generalization of double-cropping systems is a major driver of the decoupling of deforestation and crop production (Macedo et al., 2012, Arvor et al., 2012and Arvor et al., 2013).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Macedo et al., 2012 source

      The Conclusions (page unavailable) say that increased soy production after 2005 was mainly due to expansion onto previously cleared land, with higher yields contributing only partially. The paper documents decoupling in Mato Grosso, but it does not identify the spread of double-cropping as a major driver; its account of the main driver is different. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Arvor et al., 2012 source
    • cites Arvor et al., 2013 source
  • Interpretationcitation

    Ambitious and effective policies at national, state and local levels to contain deforestation and support socioeconomic development have shaped a new environmental and socio-economic development pattern in the Amazon.

    “have shaped a new environmental and socio-economic development pattern in the Amazon.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rudorff et al., 2011 source

      The Introduction describes the Soy Moratorium as an initiative intended to reduce deforestation associated with soybean expansion, and the Conclusions say it inhibited expansion of the soybean frontier. The Conclusions also say it is premature to attribute the broader reduction in deforestation to the moratorium. The paper does not establish that policies at national, state and local levels supported socioeconomic development or shaped a new environmental and socioeconomic pattern across the Amazon (page numbers unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Gibbs et al., 2015 source
    • cites Le Tourneau, 2015 source

      In “La politique de l’État fédéral brésilien vis-à-vis de la déforestation” (para. 52), the paper attributes much of the decline in deforestation to determined federal action. But its concluding discussion (paras. 78–81) says deforestation continues and defining sustainable, profitable production systems remains a future challenge; it does not establish that national, state and local policies have already shaped a new Amazon-wide environmental and socioeconomic development pattern. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premiseown data

    Census sector data presents a finer spatial scale than the municipal data traditionally used in socio-economic studies.

    “As IBGE raw data are produced for 37,295 census sectors covering the entire Amazon, whereas there are only 775 Amazonian municipalities, the census sector data presents a finer spatial scale than the municipal data traditionally used in socio-economic studies (e.g.Rodrigues et al., 2009, Celentano et al., 2012and Weinhold et al., 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rodrigues et al., 2009 source
    • cites Celentano et al., 2012 source
    • cites Weinhold et al., 2015 source
  • Premisecitation

    Forest degradation has critical magnitude in the Brazilian Amazon.

    “because of its critical magnitude in the Brazilian Amazon (Souza et al., 2013, Aragão and Shimabukuro, 2010, Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2015and Bustamante et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Souza et al., 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Aragão and Shimabukuro, 2010 source
    • cites Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2015 source
  • Interpretationcitation

    The emergence of the EKC inverted U-shaped relationship between deforestation and socioeconomic development in the Brazilian Amazon is the result of a transition in environmental governance over the last decade to ensure a move toward land use sustainability.

    “The emergence of the EKC inverted U-shaped relationship between deforestation and socioeconomic development in the Brazilian Amazon is the result of a transition in environmental governance that occurred over the last decade to ensure a move toward land use sustainability (Culas, 2007 andGalford et al., 2013).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Culas, 2007 source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Galford et al., 2013 source

      The “Policies for reducing deforestation” section says Brazil adopted conservation policies and that effective enforcement can decrease Amazon deforestation. The Conclusions also describe top-down and bottom-up approaches to reducing deforestation. Our copy does not establish an inverted U-shaped relationship with socioeconomic development or attribute its emergence to a governance transition over the last decade (searched: environmental Kuznets curve and governance transition). (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 18
  • May combine two claims. 27

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    How the ABC plan will effectively be implemented remains a challenging question.

    “But by now, how this ambitious program will effectively be implemented remains a challenging question ( Galford et al., 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Galford et al., 2013 source

      The Policy mechanisms to reduce agricultural emissions section describes Programa ABC’s ambitious goals and warns that agricultural intensification does not guarantee reduced deforestation. The Conclusions also identify barriers to applying some policies, especially for small farmers. These passages support a general concern about effective implementation, but the paper does not specifically frame implementation of Programa ABC as an unresolved question. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The intensification process is connected with social and environmental degradation, including increased inequality in land ownership, greenhouse gas emissions, soil degradation, and water pollution.

    “However, although the intensification process may have reduced pressure on forests, it is also connected with social and environmental degradation, linked to increased inequality in land ownership (Lapola et al., 2014) and greenhouse gas emissions, soil degradation and water pollution.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lapola et al., 2014 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Recent studies evoked the emergence of a new soybean frontier in Southern Africa, where Brazil is reinforcing its economic presence.

    “Recent studies also evoked the emergence of a new soybean frontier in Southern Africa, where Brazil is reinforcing its economic presence ( Gasparri et al., 2015, Clements and Fernandes, 2013, Seibert, 2011, Oliveira, 2015and Shankland and Gonalves, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Gasparri et al., 2015 source
    • cites Clements and Fernandes, 2013 source
    • cites Seibert, 2011

      The 'Brazilian investments and trade relations' section describes Brazilian investment and agricultural cooperation in Africa, including biofuel deals with Mozambique. It does not describe an emerging soybean frontier in Southern Africa; searches for soybean, soy and soya returned no such passage. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Soy cultivation is associated with increased household incomes but also increased inequality among producers.

    “Yet, the soy cultivation is associated with increased household incomes but also increased inequality among producers (Weinhold et al., 2013 andLapola et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Weinhold et al., 2013 source

      The paper measures growth in median rural household income (table, p. 19) and reports an association between soy and increased rural inequality (section 3b, p. 12). But its inequality finding concerns rural populations in municipalities, not inequality specifically among soy producers. The Amazon inequality estimates are also only marginally significant for soy growth. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Lapola et al., 2014 source

      The 'Collateral effects on land distribution' section says the shift toward large-scale commodity farming reinforced inequality in land ownership. But it does not establish increased inequality specifically among soy producers. The 'Food security' passage mentions increased per capita income mainly in the Caatinga and attributes it to short-term welfare policies, not soy cultivation; neither passage establishes increased household income from soy. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Institutional factors and macroeconomic policies can reduce the amplitude of the EKC and consequently the environmental price of economic growth.

    “In fact, institutional factors and macroeconomic policies can reduce the amplitude of the EKC and consequently the environmental price of economic growth (Culas, 2007, Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001and Bhattarai and Hammig, 2004).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Culas, 2007 source

      The supplied passages, including the material labelled Abstract, contain bibliographic metadata and keywords rather than findings. Searches for EKC amplitude, institutional factors, macroeconomic policies, and the environmental cost of growth found no passage in our copy addressing whether those factors reduce it. (LLM, conf=0.72)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001 source
    • cites Bhattarai and Hammig, 2004 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The expansion of post-frontier areas increased the within-class variance and decreased the between-class separability, explaining why the Tukey's test was not conclusive for 2010.

    “However, it also increased the within-class variance and decreased the between-class separability, explaining why the Tukey's test was not conclusive for 2010.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Ten years later, post-frontier areas expanded to other states, mainly Rondônia (11% of total G cells), Mato Grosso (22%) and Pará (30%), and better represented the spatial variability of socio-economic conditions across the entire arc of deforestation.

    “In contrast, ten years later, post-frontier areas expanded to other states, mainly Rondônia (11% of total G cells), Mato Grosso (22%) and Pará (30%) and better represented the spatial variability of socio-economic conditions across the entire arc of deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2010, the inverted U-shaped curve is typical of an environmental Kuznets curve and illustrates a decoupling between deforestation and socio-economic development in the Brazilian Amazon.

    “In 2010, the inverted U-shaped curve is typical of an EKC and illustrates a decoupling between deforestation and socio-economic development in the Brazilian Amazon as also expressed by Caviglia-Harris et al. (2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Caviglia-Harris et al., 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The decrease in active frontier areas corresponds to an increase in post-frontier areas (from 1425 to 3010 cells for F and G classes) and stabilized areas (from 3530 to 7265 unclassified cells).

    “The decrease in active frontier areas corresponds to an increase in post-frontier areas (from 1425 to 3010 cells for F and G classes) and stabilized areas (from 3530 to 7265 unclassified cells).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Tukey's honestly significant test does not evidence any boom-and-bust pattern (G differs significantly from classes A and B), but neither does it confirm a boom pattern, since class G does not significantly differ from class C.

    “Nonetheless, while Tukey's honestly significant test logically does not evidence any boom-and-bust pattern (G differs significantly from classes A and B), neither does it confirm a boom pattern, since class G does not significantly differ from class C, for example.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Maranhão had a significantly lower level of development than other states in the Amazon and thus pulled the average socio-economic measures of post-frontier areas downwards.

    “which had a significantly lower level of development than other states in the Amazon and thus pulled the average socio-economic measures of post-frontier areas downwards.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the case of high incomes, the relationship between deforestation and income is stable in 2000 and negative in 2010.

    “In the case of high incomes, the relationship is stable in 2000 and negative in 2010.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2010, the quadratic regression coefficients were β1=0.322695 and β2=-0.040279, both significant at the 0.1% level.

    “2000 2010 β1 0.985437*** 0.322695*** β2 -0.029710*** -0.040279*** *** Significance at the 0.1% level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2000, the inflection point is over an income per household equal to 2.5 times the Brazilian minimum wage, above which the relationship between income and deforestation reaches a plateau at high levels of deforestation activity.

    “Concerning the income threshold, in 2000, our results (Fig. 4) indicate an inflection point over an income per household equal to 2.5 times the Brazilian minimum wage, above which the relationship between income and deforestation reaches a plateau at high levels of deforestation activity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2000, the quadratic regression coefficients were β1=0.985437 and β2=-0.029710, both significant at the 0.1% level.

    “2000 2010 β1 0.985437*** 0.322695*** β2 -0.029710*** -0.040279*** *** Significance at the 0.1% level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    Classes that do not have a letter (u, v, w, x, y, z) in common differ significantly (Tukey's honestly significant difference test: P< 0.05).

    “All variables present significant variation across the frontier classes (Kruskal-Wallis: P< 0.0001); classes that do not have a letter (u, v, w, x, y, z) in common differ significantly (Tukey's honestly significant difference test: P< 0.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Brazilian efforts to contain deforestation in the Amazon have produced promising results.

    “Indeed, although Brazilian efforts to contain deforestation in the Amazon have produced promising results”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2010, the relationship between income and deforestation activity follows an inverted U-shape, evidence of the emergence of the EKC.

    “In 2010, this relationship follows an inverted U-shaped, evidence of the emergence of the EKC: beyond a income threshold of one minimum wage per household, deforestation activity begins to decrease.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The growing importance of low-income populations in total deforestation is explained by the rapid increase in the number of low-income cells, which was due to the minimum wage rising faster than inflation in the 2000s.

    “The growing importance of low income populations in total deforestation is first explained by the rapid increase (from 33.9% to 56.7% between 2000 and 2010) in the number of cells with low income values (< one minimum wage) due to the fact that the minimum wage evolved faster than inflation in the 2000s (Cornia, 2014).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cornia, 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation still represents the main threat to the environment in the Amazon and the major source of greenhouse gas emissions.

    “However, deforestation still represents the main threat to the environment in the Amazon and the major source of greenhouse gas emissions (Baccini et al., 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Baccini et al., 2012 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Caviglia-Harris et al. (2016) asserted that socio-economic welfare has become decoupled from environmental factors and is converging to rising national averages.

    “Caviglia-Harris et al. (2016) asserted that socio-economic welfare has become decoupled from environmental factors and is converging to rising national averages.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Caviglia-Harris et al., 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Assigning an economic value to natural resources can encourage new market-oriented forms of regulation and foster the emergence of the EKC.

    “A way to encourage new market-oriented forms of regulation consists in assigning an economic value to natural resources, which can then foster the emergence of the EKC (Dinda, 2004).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dinda, 2004 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationcitation

    Investments promoting technological progress and replacing obsolete technologies with upgraded new and cleaner ones may combine with environmental preservation and the emergence of the EKC.

    “This may combine with environmental preservation and the emergence of the EKC if investments are made to promote technological progress and replace obsolete technologies by upgraded new and cleaner ones (Dinda, 2004).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dinda, 2004 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    The frontier classification proposed by Rodrigues et al. (2009) is not appropriate for the study because it is not inclusive; cells with a moderate extent of deforestation and low deforestation activity remain unclassified.

    “In this regard, the frontier classification proposed by Rodrigues et al. (2009) is not appropriate since it is not inclusive.Indeed, cells with a moderate extent of deforestation and low deforestation activity remain unclassified (white cells in Fig. 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rodrigues et al., 2009 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    These efforts required investment of considerable capital stock, which was made available after the expansion of the commodity-oriented agricultural model.

    “These efforts required the investment of considerable capital stock, which was made available after the expansion of the commodity-oriented agricultural model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The recent launch of the ABC plan demonstrates a willingness to ensure a transition toward a more environmentally friendly agricultural model.

    “On the one hand, in relation to the environmental aspects of agriculture, the recent launch of the ABC plan (”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The ABC plan has objectives including restoration of degraded pastures, promotion of integrated crop-pasture-forest systems, generalization of no-tillage practices, improvement of biological nitrogen fixation, increase in forest plantation, recycling of animal waste, and adaptation to climate change.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In neoclassical growth theory, long-term growth rates depend on technical progress.

    “In neoclassical growth theory, long-term growth rates depend on technical progress (Caviglia-Harris et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Caviglia-Harris et al., 2016 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Environmental preservation efforts to date were mainly directed towards reducing deforestation.

    “Nonetheless, environmental preservation efforts to date were mainly directed towards reducing deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forest regeneration can mark the beginning of a forest transition dynamic, which may represent the next path towards environmental preservation after the emergence of the EKC.

    “Furthermore, forest regeneration can mark the beginning of a forest transition dynamic (Rudel et al., 2010, Rudel et al., 2005and Barbier et al., 2010) which may represents the next path towards environmental preservation after the emergence of the EKC (Pfaff andWalker, 2010 andCulas, 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rudel et al., 2010 source
    • cites Rudel et al., 2005 source
    • cites Barbier et al., 2010 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The combination of technical progress with environmental preservation and the EKC is especially true for large-scale agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon, which underwent a rapid shift towards the adoption of intensive practices.

    “This is especially true for large-scale agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon that underwent a rapid shift towards the adoption of intensive practices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Effective social policies and cash transfer programs led at federal level enabled several millions of Brazilians to leave poverty behind.

    “If so, one should carefully consider the environmental benefits of the effective social policies and cash transfer programs (Barrientos, 2013 andTritsch et al., 2015) led at federal level to enable several millions of Brazilians to leave poverty behind.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Barrientos, 2013 source
    • cites Tritsch et al., 2015 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Social policies and cash transfer programs have enabled several millions of Brazilians to leave poverty behind.

    “while the social policies and cash transfer programs have enabled several millions of Brazilians to leave poverty behind (Barrientos, 2013 andFenwick, 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Barrientos, 2013 source
    • cites Fenwick, 2009 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Governance structures have significantly affected the Brazilian Amazon deforestation process and the path toward land use sustainability.

    “As we have seen, it has significantly affected the Brazilian Amazon deforestation process and the path toward land use sustainability”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The structure of production of the agricultural model is changing rapidly, but it is not being accompanied by equivalent changes in the structure of consumption.

    “Additionally, even though the structure of production of the agricultural model is changing rapidly, it is not being accompanied by equivalent changes in the structure of consumption.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The recent decline of the Brazilian GDP per capita (from US$13,000 in 2013 to US$8540 in 2015) may affect the transition in environmental governance.

    “As a consequence, considering how the more recent decline of the Brazilian GDP per capita (from US$13,000 in 2013 to US$8540 in 2015) may affect the transition in environmental governance is a worrying issue.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The potential of environmental preservation as a source of income is still undervalued.

    “However, these strategies remain mainly oriented toward the production of raw commodities and the potential of environmental preservation as a source of income is still undervalued.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    The emergence of the EKC in Brazil occurred approximately at the same time period as Brazil reached the per capita GDP threshold of US$8000.

    “i.e. approximately (but maybe coincidentally) at the same time period we identified the emergence of the EKC.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Greater emphasis that society places on environmental value of forest resources (biodiversity, wildlife conservation, aesthetic value, and carbon sequestration) is a traditional mechanism of causality claimed in the EKC literature.

    “the greater emphasis that the society places on environmental value of forest resources (biodiversity, wildlife conservation, aesthetic value, and carbon sequestration, all yet still little merchantable) (Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The transformation of the structure of the economy (e.g., agricultural intensification and substitution of forest products by alternative sources) is a traditional mechanism of causality claimed in the EKC literature.

    “the transformation of the structure of the economy (e.g.agricultural intensification and the substitution of forest products by alternative sources (Cropper and Griffiths, 1994))”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cropper and Griffiths, 1994

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Society can avoid potential environmental catastrophes while achieving sustainable growth.

    “Thus the society can avoid potential environmental catastrophes while achieving sustainable growth (Torras and Boyce, 1998, Panayotou, 1997, Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001and Bhattarai and Hammig, 2004).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Torras and Boyce, 1998 source
    • cites Panayotou, 1997 source
    • cites Bhattarai and Hammig, 2001 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    EKC may actually record displacement of dirty industries from developed economies to less developed economies.

    “In this case,”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dinda, 2004 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Brazil has willingness to export its environmental leadership and expertise in tropical agriculture to other countries.

    “This point is of critical importance when considering the willingness of Brazil to export its environmental leadership (Ferreira et al., 2014) and its expertise in tropical agriculture to other countries that would not previously have had the necessary conditions to establish effective socio-economic programs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ferreira et al., 2014 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Current very low oil prices and high exchange rates between US$ and R$ could encourage agricultural expansion by reducing the costs for forest clearing and crop production.

    “On the other hand, current very low oil prices and high exchange rates between US$ and R$ could encourage agricultural expansion by reducing the costs for forest clearing and crop production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
43 of 43

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Brazilian Amazon region was subject to the same public policies during the study period.

    “we compared changes that occurred between two periods in a regional area subject to the same public policies.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Efficient command-and-control and market-oriented policies discouraged producers from investing their capital in the acquisition of new areas to be cleared.

    “(i) efficient command-and-control and market-oriented policies discouraged producers from investing their capital in the acquisition of new areas to be cleared”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The ABC plan has objectives including restoration of degraded pastures, promotion of integrated crop-pasture-forest systems, generalization of no-tillage practices, improvement of biological nitrogen fixation, increase in forest plantation, recycling of animal waste, and adaptation to climate change.

    “It has the following objectives: restoration of degraded pastures, promotion of integrated crop-pasture-forest systems, generalization of no-tillage practices, improvement of biological nitrogen fixation, increase in forest plantation, recycling of animal waste and adaptation to climate change.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Smallholder agriculture is responsible for the major part of the food consumed in Brazil.

    “yet responsible for the major part of the food consumed in Brazil”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Today the economic activities of the post-frontier regions are dominated by intensive agricultural production of commodities including soybean.

    “This sounds consistent as today the economic activities of the post-frontier regions are dominated by intensive agricultural production of commodities including soybean.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The modern economy of post-frontier regions is fully integrated, with national and international investments, markets and improvement programs, and has enabled an efficient transition to intensive agriculture.

    “This modern economy is fully integrated, with national and international investments, markets and improvement programs, and has enabled an efficient transition to intensive agriculture.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Post-frontier areas remain vulnerable to international (commodity prices) and national (exchange rates) economic conditions.

    “Although these post-frontier areas remain vulnerable to international (commodity prices) and national (exchange rates) economic conditions, they now have a sufficiently strong economic base to avoid a future economic collapse.”
7 of 7

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Authors
Tritsch, I., & Arvor, D.
Affiliations
  • Université Sorbonne Nouvelle (FR)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
Corresponding author
Tritsch, Isabelle
ORCID
Venue
Land Use Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2016-12
Volume
59
Pages
446-455
ISSN
0264-8377 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.018
OpenAlex
W2525825144
Cited by
80
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 2
FWCI
8.63
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Land Use Policy (publishedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Agritrop (Cirad) (submittedVersion)
  • Americanae (AECID Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
French National Agency for Research (ANR) (ANR-11-BSH1-0003)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Keywords
environmental governance, deforestation, socio-economic development, environmental Kuznets curve, Brazilian Amazon, sustainable land use, deforestation control, environmental degradation, turning points

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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