Constraints on global temperature target overshoot
Open accessAbstract
In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, the climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., “overshoot”) of temperature targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO 2) removal rates will be an important contribution to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing, independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the scope of scenarios broadly-consistent with the WG3 database, the magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization. However, limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries requires ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature target overshoot’s properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to consider how climate impacts depend on both the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Conventional mitigation technologies are well established and carry an acceptable level of managed risk.
“Most of these technologies are well established and carry an acceptable level of managed risk (Ricke et al. 2017;Victor et al. 2018;Bataille et al. 2018;Mathy et al. 2018;Shinnar and Citro 2008;Bustreo et al. 2019).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Ricke et al. 2017
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., & Meinshausen, M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature18307 · Cited by 3,480 · see citing works
Models of technology diffusion
Geroski, P. A. (2000) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/s0048-7333(99)00092-x · Cited by 1,522 · see citing works
Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2870 · Cited by 1,440 · see citing works
Future CO <sub>2</sub> Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1188566 · Cited by 1,399 · see citing works
The trouble with negative emissions
Anderson, K., & Peters, G. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aah4567 · Cited by 1,252 · see citing works
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Nakicenovic, N., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2392 · Cited by 1,114 · see citing works
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876 · see citing works
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2572 · Cited by 875 · see citing works
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Pages 1029 to 1076
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.024 · Cited by 689 · see citing works
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., et al. (2016) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016 · Cited by 680 · see citing works
Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?
Fawcett, A. A., Iyer, G. C., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Hultman, N., McJeon, H. C., Rogelj, J., Schuler, R., Alsalam, J., Asrar, G., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad5761 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit
Rogelj, J., Hare, B., Lowe, J. A., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Matthews, B., Hanaoka, T., Jiang, K., & Meinshausen, M. A. (2011) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1258 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled
Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N. P., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Allen, M., & Knutti, R. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2868 · Cited by 288 · see citing works
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission
Ricke, K., & Caldeira, K. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Self-citationA critical review of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility?
Loftus, P. J., Cohen, A. M., Long, J. C. S., & Jenkins, J. (2014) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.324 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets
Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., & Edenhofer, O. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Millar, R. J., Nicholls, Z., Friedlingstein, P., & Allen, M. R. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Self-citationSimulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
JONES, C. D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Cowie, A., et al. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Research priorities for negative emissions
Fuss, S., JONES, C. D., Kraxner, F., Peters, G. P., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Milne, J., et al. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/115007 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Assessing Transformation Pathways
(2015) · Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415416.012 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Meeting global temperature targets—the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Azar, C., Johansson, D. J. A., & Mattsson, N. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034004 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions
Tavoni, M., & Socolow, R. H. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0757-9 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?
Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., Reuster, L., Luderer, G., & Klein, D. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0681-4 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change
Tokarska, K. B., & Zickfeld, K. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth
Richardson, M., Cowtan, K. D., Hawkins, E., & Stolpe, M. B. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3066 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario
Tilmes, S., Sanderson, B. M., & O’Neill, B. C. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl070122 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Impact of short-lived non-CO 2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. A., Schaeffer, M., Knutti, R., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy
Otto, F. E. L., Frame, D. J., Otto, A., & Allen, M. R. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2716 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response
Millar, R. J., Otto, A., Forster, P. M. D. F., Lowe, J. A., Ingram, W., & Allen, M. R. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1384-4 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationPolicy thresholds in mitigation
Ricke, K., Moreno‐Cruz, J., Schewe, J., Levermann, A., & Caldeira, K. (2015) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2607 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationSchaller, N., Sedláčék, J., & Knutti, R. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2013jd021258 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Berman, E. L. (2004) · IEEE Engineering Management Review · doi:10.1109/emr.2004.1302747 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
(2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2676 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [5]Board, O. S. & others. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration. (National Academies Press, 2015).
- [26]Board, O. S., Council, N. R. & others. Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth. (National Academies Press, 2015).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review
Fawzy, S., Osman, A. I., Doran, J., & Rooney, D. W. (2020) · Environmental Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1007/s10311-020-01059-w · Cited by 1,522 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ricke, K. L., Millar, R. J., & MacMartin, D. G.
- Affiliations
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Cornell University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ricke, K. L.
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2017-11-07
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 14743-14743
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5676680
- OpenAlex
- W2767011636
- Cited by
- 63
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 8.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- David R. Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future , Cornell University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- temperature overshoot, 1.5°C target, 2°C target, energy decarbonization, negative emissions technologies, carbon dioxide removal, global mean temperature, climate change mitigation scenarios, Paris Agreement
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
