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Net-zero emissions energy systems
Open accessAbstract
Path to zero carbon emissions: Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al.review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Science, this issue p.eaas9793
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“Massively expanding renewable energy sources would allow for a rapid substitution of fossil fuels in the power sector as well as in the industry, transport, and heating sector via electrification, a widely recognized decarbonization strategy also referred to as “sector coupling”1–5.”
From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [3]
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“Aviation, long-distance road transportation, and ocean shipping require fuels with high energy density and thus are not conducive to electrification [162].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [162]
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“Industrial production, logistics, and building materials are leading causes of difficult-to-eliminate GHG emissions [162].”
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“Liquid biofuel production (BP) is currently among the most technologically mature and cost-effective routes to decarbonizing aviation, shipping, long-haul transport, and residual nonelectrified light-duty transport ( 4 , 5 ).”
From Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels (2020) · cites this paper as [5]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Davis, S. J., Lewis, N. S., Shaner, M., Aggarwal, S., Arent, D., Azevedo, I. L., Benson, S. M., Bradley, T., Brouwer, J., Chiang, Y.-M., Clack, C. T. M., Cohen, A., Doig, S., Edmonds, J., Fennell, P., Field, C. B., Hannegan, B., Hodge, B.-M., Hoffert, M. I., Ingersoll, E., Jaramillo, P., Lackner, K. S., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M., Ogden, J., Peterson, P. F., Sanchez, D. L., Sperling, D., Stagner, J., Trancik, J. E., Yang, C.-J., & Caldeira, K.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Energy Innovation, San Francisco, CA, USA.
- National Laboratory of the Rockies (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Vibrant Clean Energy, Boulder, CO, USA.
- Clean Air Task Force (US)
- Rocky Mountain Institute (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Glens Falls Hospital (US)
- New York University (US)
- Lucid Strategy, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Arizona State University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Independent researcher.
- Corresponding author
- Davis, Steven J.
- Lewis, Nathan S.
- Caldeira, Ken
- ORCID
- Davis, Steven J.
- Lewis, Nathan S.
- Shaner, Matthew
- Arent, Doug
- Azevedo, Inês L.
- Benson, Sally M.
- Bradley, Thomas
- Brouwer, Jack
- Chiang, Yet-Ming
- Clack, Christopher T. M.
- Edmonds, Jae
- Fennell, Paul
- Field, Christopher B.
- Hannegan, Bryan
- Hodge, Bri-Mathias
- Ingersoll, Eric
- Jaramillo, Paulina
- Lackner, Klaus S.
- Mach, Katharine J.
- Mastrandrea, Michael
- Ogden, Joan
- Peterson, Per F.
- Sanchez, Daniel L.
- Sperling, Daniel
- Stagner, Joseph
- Trancik, Jessika E.
- Yang, Chi-Jen
- Caldeira, Ken
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2018-06-29
- Volume
- 360
- Issue
- 6396
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2811133697
- Cited by
- 2,391
- References
- 121
- Citations by year
- 2026: 336 · 2025: 390 · 2024: 401 · 2023: 343 · 2022: 329 · 2021: 284 · 2020: 196 · 2019: 98 · 2018: 14
- FWCI
- 8.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (EAR1639318)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research
- Heising-Simons Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Keywords
- net-zero emissions, energy decarbonization, CO2 emissions, climate change mitigation, energy integration, aviation emissions, long-distance transport, electricity supply reliability, industrial decarbonization
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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