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Net-zero emissions energy systems
Open accessAbstract
Path to zero carbon emissions: Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al.review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Science, this issue p.eaas9793
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“Massively expanding renewable energy sources would allow for a rapid substitution of fossil fuels in the power sector as well as in the industry, transport, and heating sector via electrification, a widely recognized decarbonization strategy also referred to as “sector coupling”1–5.”
From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [3]
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“Aviation, long-distance road transportation, and ocean shipping require fuels with high energy density and thus are not conducive to electrification [162].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [162]
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“Industrial production, logistics, and building materials are leading causes of difficult-to-eliminate GHG emissions [162].”
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“Liquid biofuel production (BP) is currently among the most technologically mature and cost-effective routes to decarbonizing aviation, shipping, long-haul transport, and residual nonelectrified light-duty transport ( 4 , 5 ).”
From Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels (2020) · cites this paper as [5]
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Sonter, L. J., Barrett, D. J., Moran, C. J., & Soares-Filho, B. S. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2515 · Cited by 64
Kapetaki, Z., & Scowcroft, J. (2017) · Energy Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1816 · Cited by 62
Piketty, M.-G., Wichert, M., Fallot, A., & Aimola, L. (2008) · Biomass and Bioenergy · doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2008.06.002 · Cited by 59
Jarre, M., Noussan, M., & Poggio, A. (2016) · Applied Thermal Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2016.02.040 · Cited by 58
Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 34
Davis, S. C., EE USDOE - Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE), Williams, S. E., & Boundy, R. G. (2015) · doi:10.2172/1224755 · Cited by 56
Self-citationUse of NH3 fuel to achieve deep greenhouse gas reductions from US transportation
Kang, D. W., & Holbrook, J. H. (2015) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2015.08.001 · Cited by 55
Efficiency evaluation of a biomass gasification-based hydrogen production
Cohce, M. K., Rosen, M. A., & Dinçer, İ. (2011) · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2011.02.033 · Cited by 55
The Theoretical Limit to Plant Productivity
DeLucia, E. H., Gomez‐Casanovas, N., Greenberg, J. A., Hudiburg, T. W., Kantola, I. B., Long, S. P., Miller, A. D., Ort, D. R., & Parton, W. J. (2014) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es502348e · Cited by 51
Schiebahn, S., Grube, T., Robinius, M., Zhao, L., Otto, A., Kumar, B., Weber, M., & Stolten, D. (2013) · doi:10.1002/9783527673872.ch39 · Cited by 50
Catalytic Ammonia Decomposition Over Ruthenium Nanoparticles Supported on Nano-Titanates
Klerke, A., Kegnæs, S., & Fehrmann, R. (2009) · Catalysis Letters · doi:10.1007/s10562-009-9964-4 · Cited by 49
Hydrogen Generation by Ammonia Cracking with Iron Metal-Rare Earth Oxide Composite Catalyst
Itoh, M., Masuda, M., & Machida, K. (2002) · MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS · doi:10.2320/matertrans.43.2763 · Cited by 47
Mechleri, E. D., Fennell, P. S., & Dowell, N. M. (2017) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.09.018 · Cited by 45
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Ponciroli, R., Wang, Y., Zhou, Z., Botterud, A., Jenkins, J., Vilim, R., & Ganda, F. (2017) · Nuclear Technology · doi:10.1080/00295450.2017.1388668 · Cited by 39
Environmental impacts of technology learning curve for cellulosic ethanol in Brazil
Cavalett, O., Chagas, M. F., Junqueira, T. L., Watanabe, M. D. B., & Bonomi, A. (2016) · Industrial Crops and Products · doi:10.1016/j.indcrop.2016.11.025 · Cited by 37
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Self-citationManaging carbon-intensive materials in a decarbonizing world without a global price on carbon
Denis-Ryan, A., Bataille, C., & Jotzo, F. (2016) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2016.1176008 · Cited by 34
Hydrogen Plasma Smelting Reduction - an Option for Steelmaking in the Future
Hiebler, H., & Plaul, J. F. (2004) · Hrčak Portal of scientific journals of Croatia (University Computing Centre) · Cited by 30
Phase evolution, characterisation, and performance of cement prepared in an oxy-fuel atmosphere
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Self-citationClosing the carbon cycle through rational use of carbon-based fuels
MacElroy, J. M. D. (2015) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0728-7 · Cited by 15
The Business Case for Fuel Cells 2014: Powering the Bottom Line for Businesses and Communities
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Critical Evaluation of Dynamic Reversible Chemical Energy Storage with High Temperature Electrolysis
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Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 121 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 6
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Progress and perspectives of electrochemical CO2 reduction on copper in aqueous electrolyte
Nitopi, S., Bertheussen, E., Scott, S. B., Liu, X., Engstfeld, A. K., Horch, S., Seger, B., Stephens, I. E. L., Chan, K., Hahn, C., et al. (2019) · Chemical Reviews · doi:10.1021/acs.chemrev.8b00705 · Cited by 5,223
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A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
Lamb, W. F., Wiedmann, T., Pongratz, J., Andrew, R. M., Crippa, M., Olivier, J. G. J., Wiedenhofer, D., Mattioli, G., Khourdajie, A. A., House, J. I., et al. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abee4e · Cited by 1,320
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Davis, S. J., Lewis, N. S., Shaner, M., Aggarwal, S., Arent, D., Azevedo, I. L., Benson, S. M., Bradley, T., Brouwer, J., Chiang, Y.-M., Clack, C. T. M., Cohen, A., Doig, S., Edmonds, J., Fennell, P., Field, C. B., Hannegan, B., Hodge, B.-M., Hoffert, M. I., Ingersoll, E., Jaramillo, P., Lackner, K. S., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M., Ogden, J., Peterson, P. F., Sanchez, D. L., Sperling, D., Stagner, J., Trancik, J. E., Yang, C.-J., & Caldeira, K.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Energy Innovation, San Francisco, CA, USA.
- National Laboratory of the Rockies (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Vibrant Clean Energy, Boulder, CO, USA.
- Clean Air Task Force (US)
- Rocky Mountain Institute (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Glens Falls Hospital (US)
- New York University (US)
- Lucid Strategy, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Arizona State University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Independent researcher.
- Corresponding author
- Davis, Steven J.
- Lewis, Nathan S.
- Caldeira, Ken
- ORCID
- Davis, Steven J.
- Lewis, Nathan S.
- Shaner, Matthew
- Arent, Doug
- Azevedo, Inês L.
- Benson, Sally M.
- Bradley, Thomas
- Brouwer, Jack
- Chiang, Yet-Ming
- Clack, Christopher T. M.
- Edmonds, Jae
- Fennell, Paul
- Field, Christopher B.
- Hannegan, Bryan
- Hodge, Bri-Mathias
- Ingersoll, Eric
- Jaramillo, Paulina
- Lackner, Klaus S.
- Mach, Katharine J.
- Mastrandrea, Michael
- Ogden, Joan
- Peterson, Per F.
- Sanchez, Daniel L.
- Sperling, Daniel
- Stagner, Joseph
- Trancik, Jessika E.
- Yang, Chi-Jen
- Caldeira, Ken
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2018-06-29
- Volume
- 360
- Issue
- 6396
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2811133697
- Cited by
- 2,391
- References
- 121
- Citations by year
- 2026: 336 · 2025: 390 · 2024: 401 · 2023: 343 · 2022: 329 · 2021: 284 · 2020: 196 · 2019: 98 · 2018: 14
- FWCI
- 8.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (EAR1639318)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research
- Heising-Simons Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Keywords
- net-zero emissions, energy decarbonization, CO2 emissions, climate change mitigation, energy integration, aviation emissions, long-distance transport, electricity supply reliability, industrial decarbonization
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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