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Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests
Abstract
Risks to mitigation potential of forests: Much recent attention has focused on the potential of trees and forests to mitigate ongoing climate change by acting as sinks for carbon. Anderegg et al. review the growing evidence that forests' climate mitigation potential is increasingly at risk from a range of adversities that limit forest growth and health. These include physical factors such as drought and fire and biotic factors, including the depredations of insect herbivores and fungal pathogens. Full assessment and quantification of these risks, which themselves are influenced by climate, is key to achieving science-based policy outcomes for effective land and forest management. Science , this issue p. eaaz7005
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“At the same time, the West Coast experiences catastrophic wildfires fueled by climate change-driven droughts [2] and a hundred years of misinformed forest management strategies [35],Steel, Safford, and [24, 38].”
From DIY mass timber: development of low-tech and low-cost structural mass timber manufacturing to support forest utilization in California (2025) · cites this paper as [2]
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“These climate change impacts also amplify the impacts of forest mismanagement (12) (Section 3).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
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“Future climate change is expected to accelerate degradation most strongly through weather extremes (heatwaves, drought, floods) and associated episodic events such as wildfire and insect outbreaks (12), given that these extremes override the positive impacts that might arise from trends in temperature, precipitation, or CO 2 .”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
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“Furthermore, relying on forests for long-term carbon sequestration is a risk, particularly for monocultures with high vulnerability to storms, fire, or pest outbreaks (12,116).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
In the citing paper
“Future climate change will cause shifts in species distributions and ranges that may go beyond the boundaries of static protected areas and/or increase the number and frequency of episodic, forest stand-destroying events such as wildfire or insect and pest outbreaks (12).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Anderson, C. M., Bartuska, A., Ciais, P., Cullenward, D., Field, C. B., Freeman, J., Goetz, S. J., Hicke, J. A., Huntzinger, D., Jackson, R. B., Nickerson, J., Pacala, S., & Randerson, J. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Utah (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- World Wildlife Fund (US)
- Resources For The Future (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Stanford University (US)
- CarbonPlan, San Francisco, CA 94110, USA.
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- University of Idaho (US)
- Climate Action Reserve, Los Angeles, CA 90017, USA.
- Princeton University (US)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderegg, William R. L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2020-06-19
- Volume
- 368
- Issue
- 6497
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W3035911052
- Cited by
- 854
- References
- 129
- Citations by year
- 2026: 152 · 2025: 183 · 2024: 159 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 107 · 2021: 99 · 2020: 15
- FWCI
- 4.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- David and Lucile Packard Foundation (NA)
- United States Department of Agriculture (2018-67019-27850, 2018-67012-28020)
- US National Science Foundation (1714972, 1802880, DMS-1520873)
- NASA Earth Ventures (NNL15AA03C)
- NASA Applied Sciences (NNX17AG51G)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Keywords
- forest carbon sink, forest stability, natural climate solutions, forest carbon sequestration, forest fires, drought, biotic disturbance, vegetation modeling, remote sensing of forests, climate change mitigation
- MeSH terms
- Fires, Policy Making, Droughts, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration, Forests
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