Cited by 2,010COVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Prevention and ImpactSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research

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An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

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Tian, Huaiyu, Liu, Yonghong, Li, Yidan, Wu, Chieh-Hsi, Chen, Bin, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Li, Bingying, Cai, Jun, Xu, Bo, Yang, Qiqi, Wang, Ben, Yang, Peng, Cui, Yujun, Song, Yimeng, Zheng, Pai, Wang, Quanyi, Bjornstad, Ottar N., Yang, Ruifu, Grenfell, Bryan T., Pybus, Oliver G., Dye, Christopher·2020·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.abb6105PMC PMC7164389

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Abstract

Abstract Respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in China during December 2019. Attempting to contain infection, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. Here we evaluate the spread and control of the epidemic based on a unique synthesis of data including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown slowed the dispersal of infection to other cities by an estimated 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29), delaying epidemic growth elsewhere in China. Other cities that implemented control measures pre-emptively reported 33.3% (11.1-44.4%) fewer cases in the first week of their outbreaks (13.0; 7.1-18.8) compared with cities that started control later (20.6; 14.5-26.8). Among interventions investigated here, the most effective were suspending intra-city public transport, closing entertainment venues and banning public gatherings. The national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic and, by 19 February (day 50), had averted hundreds of thousands of cases across China. One sentence summary Travel restrictions and the national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

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Authors: Tian, H., Liu, Y., Li, Y., Wu, C.-H., Chen, B., Kraemer, M. U. G., Li, B., Cai, J., Xu, B., Yang, Q., Wang, B., Yang, P., Cui, Y., Song, Y., Zheng, P., Wang, Q., Bjornstad, O. N., Yang, R., Grenfell, B. T., Pybus, O. G., & Dye, C.
Affiliations: Beijing Normal University (CN)
University of Southampton (GB)
Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Boston Children's Hospital (US)
Tsinghua University (CN)
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CN)
Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology (CN)
University of Hong Kong (HK)
Peking University (CN)
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
National Institutes of Health (US)
University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author: Tian, Huaiyu
Yang, Ruifu
Grenfell, Bryan T.
Pybus, Oliver G.
Dye, Christopher
ORCID: Tian, Huaiyu
Li, Yidan
Wu, Chieh-Hsi
Chen, Bin
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Li, Bingying
Cai, Jun
Xu, Bo
Yang, Qiqi
Wang, Ben
Yang, Peng
Cui, Yujun
Song, Yimeng
Zheng, Pai
Wang, Quanyi
Bjornstad, Ottar N.
Yang, Ruifu
Grenfell, Bryan T.
Pybus, Oliver G.
Dye, Christopher
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2020-05-08
Volume: 368
Issue: 6491
Pages: 638-642
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105
PMC: PMC7164389
OpenAlex: W3013188135
Cited by: 2,010
References: 32
Citations by year: 2026: 45 · 2025: 75 · 2024: 129 · 2023: 214 · 2022: 386 · 2021: 627 · 2020: 532
FWCI: 70.26
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (publishedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
Greater South Information System
Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China (81673234)
Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST (2018QNRC001)
Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ18025)
Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science (None)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, Wuhan lockdown, public health interventions, epidemic spread, human mobility
MeSH terms: Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, China, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Pneumonia, Viral, Regression Analysis, Travel, Models, Statistical, Public Health Practice, Incidence, Coronavirus Infections, Epidemics, Pandemics

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An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

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