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Cited by 1,107COVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 Prevention and Impact

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

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Zhang, Juanjuan, Litvinova, Maria, Liang, Yuxia, Wang, Yan, Wang, Wei, Zhao, Shanlu, Wu, Qianhui, Merler, Stefano +4 more·2020·Science
DOI 10.1126/science.abb8001PMC PMC7199529
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Abstract

Who and what next?: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought tighter restrictions on the daily lives of millions of people, but we do not yet understand what measures are the most effective. Zhang et al. modeled virus transmission in Wuhan, China, in February 2020, investigating the effects of interventions ranging from patient management to social isolation. Age-mixing patterns were estimated by contact surveys conducted in Wuhan and Shanghai at the beginning of February 2020. Once people reduced their average daily contacts from 14 to 20 down to 2, transmission rapidly fell below the epidemic threshold. The model also showed that preemptive school closures helped to reduce transmission, although alone they would not prevent a COVID-19 outbreak. Limiting human mixing to within households appeared to be the most effective measure. Science , this issue p. 1481

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  • This contextual information can provide insight into the effect of interventions to slow transmission, including the impact of handwashing, social distancing and school closures.

    “This contextual information can provide insight into the effect of interventions to slow transmission, including the impact of handwashing 92 , social distancing and school closures 93 .”

    From Digital technologies in the public-health response to COVID-19 (2020) · cites this paper as [93]

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Cited by

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Authors
Zhang, J., Litvinova, M., Liang, Y., Wang, Y., Wang, W., Zhao, S., Wu, Q., Merler, S., Viboud, C., Vespignani, A., Ajelli, M., & Yu, H.
Affiliations
  • Fudan University (CN)
  • Institute for Scientific Interchange (IT)
  • Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
  • Fondazione Bruno Kessler (IT)
  • Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
  • Northeastern University (US)
Corresponding author
  • Ajelli, Marco
  • Yu, Hongjie
ORCID
Venue
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
2020-06-26
Volume
368
Issue
6498
Pages
1481-1486
ISSN
  • 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
  • 1095-9203
DOI
10.1126/science.abb8001
PMC
PMC7199529
OpenAlex
W3021923959
Cited by
1,107
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 35 · 2025: 61 · 2024: 79 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 198 · 2021: 388 · 2020: 228
FWCI
37.16
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science and Technology Major Project of China (No. 2018ZX10201001-010, No. 2018ZX10713001-007, No. 2017ZX10103009-005)
  • National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. 81525023)
  • Key Emergency Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee (No. 20411950100)
  • European Commission H2020 MOOD project
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, contact patterns, social distancing, school closures, age-specific susceptibility, household contacts, contact tracing, transmission dynamics, epidemic control, Wuhan, Shanghai, Hunan Province, non-pharmaceutical interventions
MeSH terms
Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Behavior, Child, Child, Preschool, China, Communicable Disease Control, Disease Outbreaks, Disease Susceptibility, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral, Schools, Contact Tracing, Workplace, Coronavirus Infections, Young Adult, Pandemics

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