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Cited by 96Smoking Behavior and CessationGlobal Public Health Policies and EpidemiologyGlobal Cancer Incidence and Screening

Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions

Open access
Hoffman, Steven J, Mammone, Jessica, Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan, Sritharan, Lathika, Tran, Maxwell, Al-Khateeb, Safa, Grjibovski, Andrej, Gunn, Elliot +12 more·2019·BMJ
DOI 10.1136/bmj.l2231PMC PMC6582269
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Abstract

Objectives: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. Design: Systematic collection of comparable data. Setting and population: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. Main outcome measures: Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset. Results: Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. Conclusions: Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported.

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  • Diabetes is very common and cigarette smoking is rising in China while falling in most high-income countries.

    “Diabetes is very common and cigarette smoking is rising in China while falling in most HIC.31”

    From Dementia prevention, intervention, and care: 2020 report of the Lancet Commission (2020) · cites this paper as [31]

    The Results and Discussion (page numbers unavailable) report rising cigarette consumption per capita in China and declines in several high-income countries, including the US, Canada, Australia, and countries in western and northern Europe. They do not establish a decline in most high-income countries, and no passage addresses how common diabetes is. The paper measures cigarette consumption rather than the number or prevalence of people who smoke. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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Authors
Hoffman, S. J., Mammone, J., Rogers Van Katwyk, S., Sritharan, L., Tran, M., Al-Khateeb, S., Grjibovski, A., Gunn, E., Kamali-Anaraki, S., Li, B., Mahendren, M., Mansoor, Y., Natt, N., Nwokoro, E., Randhawa, H., Yunju Song, M., Vercammen, K., Wang, C., Woo, J., & Poirier, M. J.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • York University (CA)
  • McMaster University (CA)
  • Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KZ)
  • Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
Corresponding author
Poirier, Mathieu JP
ORCID
Venue
BMJ
Publisher
BMJ
Published
2019-06-19
Volume
365
Pages
l2231
ISSN
  • 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
  • 0959-8138
DOI
10.1136/bmj.l2231
PMC
PMC6582269
OpenAlex
W2951486167
Cited by
96
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 8
FWCI
9.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Government of Ontario
  • Norges Forskningsråd (234608)
  • Canadian Institutes of Health Research (312902)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
Keywords
tobacco control, Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, consumption trends, tobacco control policy evaluation, data standardization, China, Russia, Indonesia, Japan, United States, data reporting standards, data sharing agreements
MeSH terms
Smoking Prevention, Data Collection, Health Policy, Humans, Smoking, Global Health, Tobacco Products

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