Estimating the effect size of the 15Q11.2 BP1–BP2 deletion and its contribution to neurodevelopmental symptoms: recommendations for practice
Open accessAbstract
Background: The 15q11.2 deletion is frequently identified in the neurodevelopmental clinic. Case–control studies have associated the 15q11.2 deletion with neurodevelopmental disorders, and clinical case series have attempted to delineate a microdeletion syndrome with considerable phenotypic variability. The literature on this deletion is extensive and confusing, which is a challenge for genetic counselling. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect size of the 15q11.2 deletion and quantify its contribution to neurodevelopmental disorders. Methods: We performed meta-analyses on new and previously published case–control studies and used statistical models trained in unselected populations with cognitive assessments. We used new (n=241) and previously published (n=150) data from a clinically referred group of deletion carriers. 15q11.2 duplications (new n=179 and previously published n=35) were used as a neutral control variant. Results: The deletion decreases IQ by 4.3 points. The estimated ORs and respective frequencies in deletion carriers for intellectual disabilities, schizophrenia and epilepsy are 1.7 (3.4%), 1.5 (2%) and 3.1 (2.1%), respectively. There is no increased risk for heart malformations and autism. In the clinically referred group, the frequency and nature of symptoms in deletions are not different from those observed in carriers of the 15q11.2 duplication suggesting that most of the reported symptoms are due to ascertainment bias. Conclusions: We recommend that the deletion should be classified as ‘pathogenic of mild effect size’. Since it explains only a small proportion of the phenotypic variance in carriers, it is not worth discussing in the developmental clinic or in a prenatal setting.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The 15q11.2 BP1–BP2 deletion has a mild effect on cognition, decreasing IQ by about 4.3 points, and confers small or uncertain risks for neurodevelopmental and medical conditions. The authors recommend classifying it as “pathogenic of mild effect size” and not discussing it in the developmental clinic or prenatal setting.
Key findings
- The deletion decreases IQ by 4.3 points (95% CI 6.5 to 2.03), equivalent to 0.28 z-scores, and translates into a 4% risk for intellectual disability versus 2% in the general population.
- Estimated ORs and frequencies in deletion carriers were 1.7 (3.4%) for intellectual disabilities, 1.5 (2%) for schizophrenia, and 3.1 (2.1%) for epilepsy; there was no increased risk for heart malformations or autism.
- In the clinically referred group, symptom frequencies in deletion carriers were not different from those in 15q11.2 duplication carriers: ID 42.3% vs 35.2%, ASD 12.9% vs 13.6%, epilepsy 15.3% vs 14.2%, and CHD 8.9% vs 5.7%, suggesting most reported symptoms are due to ascertainment bias.
- The authors recommend classifying the deletion as “pathogenic of mild effect size” and state it is not worth discussing in the developmental clinic or prenatal setting.
Methods
- Meta-analyses of new and previously published case–control studies, plus statistical models trained in unselected populations with cognitive assessments, using UK Biobank controls (151,619 individuals) and DECIPHER data (28,970 cases).
- Clinically referred carrier groups included 391 deletion carriers (326 probands and 65 relatives) and 214 duplication carriers (176 probands and 38 relatives), combining new data (deletions n=241; duplications n=179) and previously published data (deletions n=150; duplications n=35).
- Analyses included Fisher’s exact tests, random-effects meta-analyses, logistic regression for de novo occurrence, and pLI-based models; frequencies were computed by multiplying relative risk by general-population prevalence.
Limitations
- Stated: estimates derive from case–control studies and statistical models trained in unselected populations; different unselected cohorts may yield slightly different deletion prevalences and change estimates, and early case–control studies grossly underestimated deletion frequency due to very small control groups.
- Stated: the statistical model estimates small individual-gene effects and could underestimate the overall deletion effect; case–control association studies do not clearly rank which symptoms drive enrichment in disease cohorts.
- Evident from the text: clinically referred case series are strongly affected by ascertainment bias, as shown by the similar symptom frequencies in deletion and neutral duplication carriers.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
31 of 41 cited sources checked · 16 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The 15q11.2 deletion is associated with schizophrenia (OR 1.8).
“a mild enrichment of the deletion is observed in individuals with schizophrenia (OR 1.8),2”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] source
The Gene CNV association section reports a schizophrenia association for deletions at 15q13.3, not 15q11.2. Searches of our copy for 15q11.2 and an odds ratio of 1.8 found no passage establishing the claimed enrichment; the two loci cannot be treated as interchangeable. (LLM, conf=0.73)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The 15q11.2 deletion is associated with learning disabilities (OR 4.4).
“learning disabilities (OR 4.4, dyslexia and dyscalculia combined).5”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] Ulfarsson, 2017, 15q11.2 CNV affects cognitive, structural and functional correlates of dyslexia and dyscalculia, Transl Psychiatry source
- Findingown data
The 15q11.2 deletion is significantly enriched in the SJCHU CMA database (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4) compared with UK Biobank.
“The deletion is significantly enriched in the SJCHU (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4) and OUH CMA database (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.7), compared with the deletion prevalence from the UK BIOBANK (0.36%, 544/151619)16 (table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
The Results report 151,659 UK Biobank samples passing quality control, and the CNV Calling Criteria include 15q11.2 deletions. But our copy does not give the cited deletion prevalence of 0.36% (544/151,619) or the SJCHU comparison and odds ratio; it directs readers to a separate Excel file for locus-specific frequencies (CNV Breakpoints and Frequencies, Table S2). The citation is attached to the UK Biobank baseline, not clearly to the citing authors’ enrichment calculation. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
More than 200 15q11.2 deletion carriers have been reported in clinical series with mild, moderate and severe neurodevelopmental symptoms as well as malformations.
“More than 200 15q11.2 deletion carriers have been reported in clinical series with mild, moderate and severe neurodevelopmental symptoms as well as malformations leading authors to delineate a microdeletion syndrome with considerable phenotypic variability9 and incomplete penetrance.10”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [9] source
The Abstract reviews clinical features from about 200 deletion carriers, and Table 5 in §2.5 includes a series totaling 216 carriers. The Introduction and Results describe variable neurodevelopmental findings and congenital anomalies, but the review does not classify carriers as having mild, moderate, and severe neurodevelopmental symptoms. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [10] source
- Findingown data
The meta-analysis of CHD case-control studies shows an OR of 4.96 when the small control groups from the original publications are used.
“Our meta-analysis of CHD case–control studies6–8 shows an OR of 4.96 when the small control groups from the original publications are used (figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [6] Geng J , Picker J , Zheng Z , Zhang X , Wang J , Hisama F , Brown DW , Mullen MP , Harris D , Stoler J , Seman A , Miller DT , Fu Q , Roberts AE , Shen Y . Chromosome microarray testing for patients with congenital heart defects reveals novel disease causing loci and high diagnostic yield. BMC Genomics 2014;15.doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-1127 source
The Methods section (Statistical analysis; page unavailable) describes Fisher’s exact tests comparing CNV frequencies, not a meta-analysis of CHD case–control studies. The Discussion (Diagnostic yields of CMA testing; page unavailable) summarizes diagnostic yields from earlier studies, but gives no OR of 4.96 or analysis using their small control groups. Searches for the OR and the stated meta-analysis found no supporting passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [7] source
- cites [8] source
- Findingown data
The reciprocal 15q11.2 duplication is not enriched in the SJCHU and OUH cohorts when using UK Biobank prevalence (0.5%).
“The reciprocal duplication is not enriched in both the SJCHU and OUH cohorts (table 2) when using the prevalence in an unselected population provided by the UK BIOBANK (0.5%, 762/151619)16 and is therefore used as a control neutral CNV throughout the rest of this study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
- Premisecitation
The 15q11.2 deletion is associated with epilepsy (OR 4.9).
“epilepsy (OR 4.9)4”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] source
- Interpretationreasoning
The estimated frequency of CHD in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 4.5%-1.4% based on the prevalence of CHD of 9 per 1000 live births.
“This suggests that the frequency of CHD in deletion carriers is 4.5%–1.4% based on the prevalence of CHD of 9 per 1000 live births (table 4).40”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [40] source
- Premisecitation
The 15q11.2 deletion is associated with developmental delay (OR 2.36).
“developmental delay (OR 2.36),3”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] source
- Findingown data
The 15q11.2 deletion is significantly enriched in the OUH CMA database (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.7) compared with UK Biobank.
“The deletion is significantly enriched in the SJCHU (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4) and OUH CMA database (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.7), compared with the deletion prevalence from the UK BIOBANK (0.36%, 544/151619)16 (table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
The Results and the section describing Table S2 establish that the paper measured CNV frequencies in UK Biobank, including the 15q11.2 deletion listed in the CNV Calling Criteria. Our copy does not give the cited deletion prevalence of 0.36% (544/151619), and it does not report an OUH CMA comparison or the stated odds ratio and confidence interval. In the citing sentence, the reference appears next to the UK Biobank prevalence, not the authors’ OUH enrichment result. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingcitation
The 15q11.2 deletion decreases IQ by 4.3 points (95% CI 6.5 to 2.03).
“The deletion decreases IQ by 4.3 points.”
- Also stated in: § Effect on IQ · hedged
“Using our model33 based on observation of IQ measured in deletion carriers in the general population, we estimate that the 15q11.2 deletion decreases IQ by 4.3 points (95% CI 6.5 to 2.03).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
The Conclusions figure caption identifies 15q11.2 among recurrent CNVs assessed for predicted IQ loss, and the Characteristics of Autosomal Deletion Contents That Affect IQ section describes comparing predictions with measured IQ loss. Neither passage gives a 4.3-point decrease or the stated 95% confidence interval (searched: 15q11.2, 4.3 points, and 6.5 to 2.03). Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Also stated in: § Effect on IQ · hedged
- Study design and conductown data
The 15q11.2 duplication is used as a control neutral CNV throughout the study.
“The reciprocal duplication is not enriched in both the SJCHU and OUH cohorts (table 2) when using the prevalence in an unselected population provided by the UK BIOBANK (0.5%, 762/151619)16 and is therefore used as a control neutral CNV throughout the rest of this study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
- Findingown data
There is no significant enrichment of CHD in 15q11.2 deletion carriers (OR 1.55, 95% CI 0.97 to 2.48) if the UK Biobank population frequency is used as control.
“There is, however, no significant enrichment 1.55 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.48) if the UK BIOBANK population frequency of 0.36% is used as the control group.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
The Results and the section on CNV frequencies say the study measured copy-number-variant frequencies in UK Biobank, but the available text directs readers to an Excel supplement for the locus-specific figures. Searches for the 15q11.2 deletion frequency, CHD, and the stated odds ratio found no passage giving 0.36% or assessing CHD enrichment. Our copy therefore does not verify the claimed comparison. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The UK Biobank data used as control is from an unselected population (151,619 individuals).
“We used data on CNV frequency from the UK BIOBANK (151 619 individuals),16 which is an unselected population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
Methods and Materials says UK Biobank participants were recruited without exclusion criteria, supporting the description of an unselected sample. However, Methods and Materials and Results report 151,659 samples passing quality control, not 151,619. The Discussion also cautions that the sample is not fully representative of the general population. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The sum of pLI of genes included in a deletion is tightly correlated to its effect size on cognition.
“Our previous study suggests that the sum of pLI of genes included in a deletion is tightly correlated to its effect size on cognition.33”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
- Interpretationcitation
Our estimate of the effect size on IQ is concordant with the frequency of de novo occurrence observed in deletion carriers (8.3%).
“Our estimate of the effect size on IQ is concordant with the frequency of de novo occurrence observed in deletion carriers (8.3%), which is tightly related to the effect size of deletions on IQ.33”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
- Interpretationcitation
It is likely that the 15q11.2 deletion acts additively on cognition with other genetic and environmental factors.
“Instead, it is likely that the deletion acts additively on cognition with other genetic and environmental factors, which is consistent with the fact that most of the genetic contribution to general intelligence is thought to be additive.44”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [44] source
- Interpretationcitation
Clinical series are especially problematic for genetic variants with an effect size much smaller than the average referral criteria.
“Clinical series are especially problematic for genetic variants with an effect size much smaller than the average referral criteria (ie, 16p13.11, 1q21.1 TAR, 17q12, 16p11.2 Distal (SH2B1), 1q21.1 Distal (Class I) and 15q13.3).33”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
The Discussion (page unavailable) says IQ effects for 15q13.3 and 3q29 deletions may be overestimated because carriers are often referred to clinics for behavioral or neurologic symptoms. This supports a concern about clinical ascertainment, but the paper does not establish that clinical series are especially problematic for every listed variant or compare their effects with an average referral criterion. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingcitation
The statistical model estimates effect sizes on IQ for CYFIP1, NIPA1, NIPA2, and TUBGCP5 of -2.72, -0.59, -1.33, and 0.0 IQ points, respectively.
“Our statistical model estimates small effect sizes on IQ for CYFIP1, NIPA1, NIPA2, and TUBGCP5 (-2.72, –0.59, −1.33 and 0.0 points of IQ, respectively) and could underestimate the overall effect of the deletion.33”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
The Characteristics Underlying the Associations of Deletions With IQ section describes a model estimating gene-level effects on performance IQ, but it does not give estimates for CYFIP1, NIPA1, NIPA2, or TUBGCP5. Searches for those genes and the four stated values found no passage in our copy that verifies the gene-specific figures. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The best estimates of the population frequency of the 15q11.2 deletion range from 0.36% (UK BIOBANK) to 0.24% (Icelandic population).
“Currently, the best estimates range from 0.36% (UK BIOBANK)16 to 0.24% (Icelandic population).41”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [16] Kendall, 2017, Cognitive performance among carriers of pathogenic copy number variants: analysis of 152,000 UK Biobank subjects, Biol Psychiatry source
The Discussion says the authors established frequencies for 93 CNVs in UK Biobank, but the CNV Breakpoints and Frequencies section directs readers to Table S2 in a separate Excel file. Our copy does not give a 0.36% frequency for the 15q11.2 deletion (searched: 0.36%, 15q11.2 deletion frequency). The Icelandic estimate has a separate citation in the citing sentence and is not attributed to this paper. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [41] source
- Interpretationcitation
The statistical model could underestimate the overall effect of the 15q11.2 deletion.
“Our statistical model estimates small effect sizes on IQ for CYFIP1, NIPA1, NIPA2, and TUBGCP5 (-2.72, –0.59, −1.33 and 0.0 points of IQ, respectively) and could underestimate the overall effect of the deletion.33”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] Huguet, 2018, Measuring and estimating the effect sizes of copy number variants on general intelligence in community-based samples, JAMA Psychiatry source
The Discussion (page unavailable) says the model underestimates the IQ effects of 15q13.3 and 3q29 deletions, showing that underestimation is possible. The paper includes 15q11.2 among the recurrent deletions considered (figure caption in Conclusions, page unavailable), but our copy does not say its effect is underestimated. The claim applies a documented model limitation to a deletion for which the source does not establish it. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
The individual gene estimates are concordant with the absence of any de novo mutations in NIPA1, NIPA2, CYFIP1, and TUBGCP5 in ClinVar.
“Our individual gene estimates are, however, concordant with the absence of any de novo mutations in NIPA1, NIPA2, CYFIP1 and TUBGCP5 in the public archive of interpretations of clinically relevant variants, ClinVar accessed March 2018 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/clinvar).47”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [47] source
The Introduction identifies ClinVar as a public database of submitted variant interpretations, supporting the citation’s identification of the archive. The paper does not report whether de novo mutations in NIPA1, NIPA2, CYFIP1, or TUBGCP5 were absent from ClinVar in March 2018; searches for those genes and de novo mutations found no such passage. The citing authors’ individual gene estimates are their own finding, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
The frequency of ID reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 42.3% (138/326).
“This mild effect is in strong contrast with the ID frequency of 42.3% (138/326) reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of epilepsy reported in duplication-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 14.2% (25/176).
“A similar frequency of epilepsy is observed in carriers of the neutral duplication (14.2%, 25/176)) (table 4 and online supplementary table S10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of additional pathogenic CNVs in the clinically referred group is similar in deletion probands (8.3%, 27/326) and duplication probands (7.4%, 13/176).
“The frequency of additional CNVs reported as pathogenic, in the clinically referred group is similar in probands carrying a deletion (8.3%, 27/326) and duplication (7.4%, 13/176).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of CHD reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 8.9% (29/326).
“Again the frequency reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is high (8.9%, 29/326) (table 4) but it is not significantly different from the frequency of CHD in duplication-carrying proband from the clinically referred group (5.7%, 10/176; 95% CI 2.8 to 10.2) (online supplementary table S13).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The meta-analysis of case-control studies did not show a significant association between the 15q11.2 deletion and autism spectrum disorder (OR 1.30).
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies (figure 1) did not show a significant association between the deletion and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (OR 1.30), which again is discordant with the frequency of ASD in deletion (12.9%, 42/326)) and duplication-carrying probands (13.6%, 24/176)) from the clinically referred group (table 4 and online supplementary table S9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of CHD in deletion-carrying probands is not significantly different from the frequency in duplication-carrying probands (5.7%, 10/176; 95% CI 2.8 to 10.2).
“Again the frequency reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is high (8.9%, 29/326) (table 4) but it is not significantly different from the frequency of CHD in duplication-carrying proband from the clinically referred group (5.7%, 10/176; 95% CI 2.8 to 10.2) (online supplementary table S13).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There is no increased risk for heart malformations in 15q11.2 deletion carriers.
“There is no increased risk for heart malformations and autism.”
- Also stated in: § Congenital heart disease · hedged
“There is, however, no significant enrichment 1.55 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.48) if the UK BIOBANK population frequency of 0.36% is used as the control group.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Congenital heart disease · hedged
- Findingown data
No other recurrent major malformations, medical conditions or dysmorphism were reported in carriers of the 15q11.2 CNVs.
“In the same group, there were no other recurrent major malformations, medical conditions or dysmorphism reported in carriers of the 15q11.2 CNVs (online supplementary results S1.3, S1.4 and S1.5 and online supplementary table S14 and S15).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of ASD in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 12.9% (42/326).
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies (figure 1) did not show a significant association between the deletion and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (OR 1.30), which again is discordant with the frequency of ASD in deletion (12.9%, 42/326)) and duplication-carrying probands (13.6%, 24/176)) from the clinically referred group (table 4 and online supplementary table S9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Merging data from the clinically referred group and DECIPHER provides a de novo frequency of 8.3% (38/457; 95% CI 6.0 to 11.2).
“Merging the data from the clinically referred group and the DECIPHER data set (n=306) (online supplementary table S8) provides a de novo frequency of 8.3% (38/457; 95% CI 6.0 to 11.2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the clinically referred group, the frequency and nature of symptoms in 15q11.2 deletion carriers are not different from those in 15q11.2 duplication carriers.
“In the clinically referred group, the frequency and nature of symptoms in deletions are not different from those observed in carriers of the 15q11.2 duplication suggesting that most of the reported symptoms are due to ascertainment bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A broad spectrum ranging from benign focal epilepsies to severe syndromic epilepsies is reported in deletion and duplication-carrying probands.
“A broad spectrum ranging from (benign) focal epilepsies to severe syndromic epilepsies is reported in deletion and duplication-carrying probands, with a predominance of generalised seizures in both deletion (6.4%, 21/326)) and duplication probands (5.7%, 10/76)).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The mean full scale IQ of deletion-carrying probands in the clinically referred group is 70.9 (±15.3 SD).
“In the same group, the mean full scale IQ (FSIQ) (available in 20/138) of deletion-carrying probands is 70.9 (±15.3 SD) (online supplementary table S3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated OR for intellectual disabilities in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 1.7.
“The estimated ORs and respective frequencies in deletion carriers for intellectual disabilities, schizophrenia and epilepsy are 1.7 (3.4%), 1.5 (2%) and 3.1 (2.1%), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated frequency of intellectual disabilities in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 3.4%.
“The estimated ORs and respective frequencies in deletion carriers for intellectual disabilities, schizophrenia and epilepsy are 1.7 (3.4%), 1.5 (2%) and 3.1 (2.1%), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated OR for epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 3.1.
“The estimated ORs and respective frequencies in deletion carriers for intellectual disabilities, schizophrenia and epilepsy are 1.7 (3.4%), 1.5 (2%) and 3.1 (2.1%), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated de novo frequency for any deletion with a pLI of 1.69 is 7.5% (95% CI 6.3 to 8.9, p=2e−71).
“The estimated de novo frequency for any deletion with a pLI of 1.69 is 7.5% (95% CI 6.3 to 8.9, p=2e−71) (online supplementary figure S1) and is consistent with an impact on IQ of 4.3 (95% CI 6.5 to 2.03) points.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The enrichment of the 15q11.2 deletion in NDD cohorts is consistent with meta-analyses of previously published studies (OR 1.7-2.7).
“The enrichment is consistent with our meta-analyses of previously published studies in NDD cohorts (OR 1.7–2.7, figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There is no increased risk for autism in 15q11.2 deletion carriers.
“There is no increased risk for heart malformations and autism.”
- Also stated in: § Autism and other psychiatric disorders · hedged
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies (figure 1) did not show a significant association between the deletion and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (OR 1.30), which again is discordant with the frequency of ASD in deletion (12.9%, 42/326)) and duplication-carrying probands (13.6%, 24/176)) from the clinically referred group (table 4 and online supplementary table S9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Autism and other psychiatric disorders · hedged
- Findingown data
The frequency of epilepsy reported in deletion-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 15.3% (50/326).
“This is in strong contrast with the frequency of epilepsy reported in deletion-carrying probands (15.3%, 50/326)) from the clinically referred group (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The estimated OR for schizophrenia in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 1.5.
“The estimated ORs and respective frequencies in deletion carriers for intellectual disabilities, schizophrenia and epilepsy are 1.7 (3.4%), 1.5 (2%) and 3.1 (2.1%), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of ID reported in duplication-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 35.2% (62/176; 95% CI 28.2 to 42.8).
“ID is reported in 35.2% (62/176; 95% CI 28.2 to 42.8) of duplication-carrying probands (table 4) and their mean FSIQ is 75.3 (±23.0 SD) (online supplementary table S3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of ASD in duplication-carrying probands from the clinically referred group is 13.6% (24/176).
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies (figure 1) did not show a significant association between the deletion and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (OR 1.30), which again is discordant with the frequency of ASD in deletion (12.9%, 42/326)) and duplication-carrying probands (13.6%, 24/176)) from the clinically referred group (table 4 and online supplementary table S9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
None of the relatives who carry a 15q11.2 CNV reported epilepsy.
“None of the relatives who carry a 15q11.2 CNV reported epilepsy (online supplementary table S11 and S12).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The meta-analysis of epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers shows an OR of 5.14 when using the small control groups from the original studies.
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies for epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers4 23 26 27 shows an OR of 5.14 when using the small control groups from the original studies and 3.09 using the UK BIOBANK data (figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 4 23 26 27
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
The meta-analysis of epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers shows an OR of 3.09 using UK Biobank data.
“Our meta-analysis of case–control studies for epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers4 23 26 27 shows an OR of 5.14 when using the small control groups from the original studies and 3.09 using the UK BIOBANK data (figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A wide range of additional neurological manifestations is reported in deletion and duplication carriers at similar frequencies.
“A wide range of additional neurological manifestations is reported in deletion and duplication carriers at similar frequencies (online supplementary results S1.1 and S1.2 and online supplementary table S11 and S12).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The mean full scale IQ of duplication-carrying probands in the clinically referred group is 75.3 (±23.0 SD).
“ID is reported in 35.2% (62/176; 95% CI 28.2 to 42.8) of duplication-carrying probands (table 4) and their mean FSIQ is 75.3 (±23.0 SD) (online supplementary table S3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The de novo frequency observed in deletion carriers from the clinically referred group is 5.3% (8/151; 95% CI 2.3 to 10.2).
“The de novo frequency observed in the deletion carriers from the clinically referred group is 5.3% (8/151; 95% CI 2.3 to 10.2) (table 3 and online supplementary table S7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency or penetrance of epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 3.5%.
“Our estimates for the frequency or ‘penetrance’ of schizophrenia, epilepsy and heart malformation in deletion carriers are 2.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The average proband referred for CMA testing presents with autism in approximately 17% of cases.
“Using the duplication as a ‘neutral CNV’ control group, we show that the average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID, epilepsy, autism and cardiac malformations in approximately 35%, 14%, 17% and 6% of the cases, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No increased risk for ASD was detected in 15q11.2 deletion carriers.
“In all cases, we did not detect any increased risk for ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency or penetrance of schizophrenia in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 2.0%.
“Our estimates for the frequency or ‘penetrance’ of schizophrenia, epilepsy and heart malformation in deletion carriers are 2.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
If one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK, the estimate for epilepsy penetrance could be as low as 2.1%.
“These estimates could be as low as 1.5%, 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, if one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of epilepsy in 442 deletions with a pLI score between 1 and 3 from the DECIPHER and SJCHU databases is 9.3% (30/321, 95% CI 6.4 to 13.1).
“The frequency of epilepsy in 442 deletions with a pLI score between 1 and 3 from the DECIPHER (n=382) and SJCHU (n=60) database is 9.3% (30/321, 95% CI 6.4 to 13.1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
If one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK, the estimate for heart malformation penetrance could be as low as 1.4%.
“These estimates could be as low as 1.5%, 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, if one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
If one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK, the estimate for schizophrenia penetrance could be as low as 1.5%.
“These estimates could be as low as 1.5%, 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, if one uses the population frequency of the deletion estimated in the UK BIOBANK (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In clinically referred groups, there is no significant difference in symptom frequency between 15q11.2 deletion and duplication carriers.
“In our clinically referred groups, we observed no significant difference in symptom frequency between deletions and duplications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
When using the UK BIOBANK population frequency, no significant enrichment is detected for CHD.
“In the latter case, there is no significant enrichment detected for schizophrenia and CHD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A large proportion of non-overlapping deletions with similar effect size on cognition (based on the sum of pLI scores) are classified as benign.
“Our investigation of non-overlapping deletions with similar effect size on cognition (based on the sum of pLI scores) show that a large proportion of these rare CNVs are classified as benign (online supplementary figure S5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The pLI sum of the 15q11.2 deletion is 1.69.
- Findingown data
The average proband referred for CMA testing presents with epilepsy in approximately 14% of cases.
“Using the duplication as a ‘neutral CNV’ control group, we show that the average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID, epilepsy, autism and cardiac malformations in approximately 35%, 14%, 17% and 6% of the cases, respectively.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID in approximately 35% of cases.
“Using the duplication as a ‘neutral CNV’ control group, we show that the average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID, epilepsy, autism and cardiac malformations in approximately 35%, 14%, 17% and 6% of the cases, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency or penetrance of heart malformation in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 4.5%.
“Our estimates for the frequency or ‘penetrance’ of schizophrenia, epilepsy and heart malformation in deletion carriers are 2.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
When using the UK BIOBANK population frequency, no significant enrichment is detected for schizophrenia.
“In the latter case, there is no significant enrichment detected for schizophrenia and CHD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The frequency of CHD in deletions with 1<pLI<3 in the DECIPHER and SJCHU databases is 2.5% (8/321, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.9).
“The frequency of CHD in deletions with 1<pLI <3 in the DECIPHER and SJCHU database is 2.5% (8/321, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The average proband referred for CMA testing presents with cardiac malformations in approximately 6% of cases.
“Using the duplication as a ‘neutral CNV’ control group, we show that the average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID, epilepsy, autism and cardiac malformations in approximately 35%, 14%, 17% and 6% of the cases, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The enrichment of the 15q11.2 deletion in clinical cohorts is likely driven by the main referral motifs in probands (neurodevelopmental symptoms, epilepsy and CHD).
“The enrichment of the deletion in clinical cohorts are likely driven by the main referral motifs in probands, which are neurodevelopmental symptoms, epilepsy and CHD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The test for heterogeneity for OR using the original control population suggests important heterogeneity among the studies (Q=39.74, df=19, p=0.00, I2=61.5%).
“The test for heterogeneity (Q=39.74, df=19, p=0.00, I2=61.5%) for OR (left side) using the original control population suggests important heterogeneity among the studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Most of the reported symptoms in 15q11.2 deletion carriers are due to ascertainment bias.
“In the clinically referred group, the frequency and nature of symptoms in deletions are not different from those observed in carriers of the 15q11.2 duplication suggesting that most of the reported symptoms are due to ascertainment bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The 15q11.2 duplication should not have any detectable effect on IQ.
“The level of bias of the clinically referred group is illustrated by the duplication, which is not enriched in clinical cohorts and should therefore not have any detectable effect on IQ.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The risk for schizophrenia in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 2%.
“This translates into a 2% risk for schizophrenia based on a population prevalence of approximately 1.0% for this condition.38”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] source
- Interpretationreasoning
The estimated de novo frequency for a deletion with pLI 1.69 is consistent with an impact on IQ of 4.3 points.
“The estimated de novo frequency for any deletion with a pLI of 1.69 is 7.5% (95% CI 6.3 to 8.9, p=2e−71) (online supplementary figure S1) and is consistent with an impact on IQ of 4.3 (95% CI 6.5 to 2.03) points.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Removing deletion and duplication probands with additional pathogenic CNVs, SNVs and structural chromosomal rearrangements from all analyses did not change any of the results.
“Removing deletion and duplication probands with additional pathogenic CNVs, SNVs and structural chromosomal rearrangements from all analyses detailed above did not change any of the results (online supplementary table S9, S10, S13 and S16).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Publication bias was present in the duplication meta-analysis (Egger's test z=3.3826, p=0.0007).
“Publication bias was assessed in a funnel plot (online supplementary figure S3) and the Egger’s test was used to test for funnel plot asymmetry (z=3.3826, p=0.0007). This result suggests asymmetry in the funnel plot, and the presence of publication bias.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Publication bias was present in the deletion meta-analysis (Egger's test z=2.1337, p=0.0329).
“Publication bias was assessed in a funnel plot (online supplementary figure S2), and the Egger’s test was used to test for funnel plot asymmetry (z=2.1337, p=0.0329). A p value below 0.05 suggests the presence of publication bias in the funnel plot.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Assuming an additive model, the 4.3-point IQ decrease translates into a 4% risk for ID (compared with 2% in the general population).
“Assuming an additive model, this effect translates into a 4% risk for ID (compared with 2% in the general population).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: An additive model applies to the translation of the IQ effect into ID risk.
- Interpretationreasoning
Many initial case-control studies overestimated the enrichment of the 15q11.2 deletion in clinical cohorts because small control groups provided incorrect estimates of the deletion frequency in the general population.
“Many initial case–control studies overestimated the enrichment of the 15q11.2 deletion in clinical cohorts due to small control groups providing incorrect estimates of the deletion frequency in the general population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The presence or absence of the 15q11.2 deletion in a young child is a very poor predictor of developmental delay or IDs.
“The presence or absence of the deletion in a young child is therefore a very poor predictor of developmental delay or IDs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The 15q11.2 deletion cannot be used as a marker for prenatal testing because it explains only a small fraction of the phenotypic variance.
“This variant cannot be used as a marker for prenatal testing because it explains only a small fraction of the phenotypic variance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The contribution of the 15q11.2 deletion to the decrease in IQ observed in a proband carrier referred for ID would be negligible.
“In this context, the contribution of the deletion to the important decrease in IQ observed in a proband carrier referred for ID would be negligible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The contribution of the 15q11.2 deletion to symptoms of a proband referred to the neurodevelopmental clinic is modest.
“In conclusion, we recommend that the 15q11.2 deletion should not be reported back to patients, as the contribution of this variant to symptoms of a proband referred to the neurodevelopmental clinic is modest.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The effects of the 15q11.2 deletion are too small to support any relevant counselling in the clinic.
“The effects of the 15q11.2 deletion may point towards important biological mechanism, but they are too small to support any relevant counselling in the clinic.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The SD of IQ observed among siblings (±12 points around the parental mean) is three times higher than the effect size of the 15q11.2 deletion.
“In particular, the SD of IQ observed among siblings (±12 points around the parental mean)42 is three times higher than the effect size of the 15q11.2 deletion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [42] source
- Interpretationcitation
The estimate of the effect of the 15q11.2 deletion on IQ is identical to the estimate measured in carriers in the general Icelandic population.
“This is identical to the estimate of the impact on IQ measured in carriers of the 15q11.2 deletion in the general Icelandic population41 and translates into a frequency of ID of 4.0% (compared with 2% in the general population).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [41] source
- Interpretationreasoning
ID in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is mostly due to additional factors.
“Based on our estimates, ID in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is mostly due to additional factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Clinical series will report similar frequencies regardless of any formal association.
“This suggests that clinical series will report similar frequencies regardless of any formal association (ie, association of the 15q11.2 deletion with ASD and CHD has yet to be demonstrated).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The frequency of ID of 4.0% in deletion carriers is in line with the enrichment of the deletions in neurodevelopmental cohorts (OR 1.7).
“This is in line with the enrichment of the deletions in neurodevelopmental cohorts (OR 1.7, figure 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Estimates and frequencies derived from case-control association studies do not allow clear ranking of the symptoms contributing to enrichment in disease cohorts.
“Estimates and frequencies derived from case–control association studies do not allow to clearly rank the symptoms contributing to the enrichment in disease cohorts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 11
- May combine two claims. 10
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe 15q11.2 deletion is associated with congenital heart disease.
“The deletion has also been associated with congenital heart disease (CHD).6–8”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [6] Geng J , Picker J , Zheng Z , Zhang X , Wang J , Hisama F , Brown DW , Mullen MP , Harris D , Stoler J , Seman A , Miller DT , Fu Q , Roberts AE , Shen Y . Chromosome microarray testing for patients with congenital heart defects reveals novel disease causing loci and high diagnostic yield. BMC Genomics 2014;15.doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-1127 source
- cites [7] source
- cites [8] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationStatistical heterogeneity between studies was assessed with the Q (χ2) test and I2 statistic.
“We assessed statistical heterogeneity between studies with the Q (χ2) test and I2 statistic (total heterogeneity/total variability).36”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [36] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThis may lead to reassessment of the effect size of CYFIP1, which has been proposed as a large effect size neurodevelopmental gene.
“This may lead to reassessment of the effect size of CYPFIP1, which has been proposed as a large effect size neurodevelopmental gene.12 13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [12] source
The Introduction and the Results section ‘CYFIP1 Interactome Is Linked to Human Disease’ link CYFIP1 to intellectual disability, autism and schizophrenia. Neither passage describes CYFIP1 as a large-effect gene or estimates its effect size. The proposed reassessment is the citing authors’ own inference, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [13] source
The Discussion (page unavailable) describes CYFIP1 as having an important role in neurodevelopmental disease and reports pathological effects of increased dosage. It does not characterize CYFIP1 as a large-effect-size gene or estimate its effect size. The proposed reassessment is the citing authors’ own inference, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataGeneralised seizures predominate in deletion probands (6.4%, 21/326) and duplication probands (5.7%, 10/76).
“A broad spectrum ranging from (benign) focal epilepsies to severe syndromic epilepsies is reported in deletion and duplication-carrying probands, with a predominance of generalised seizures in both deletion (6.4%, 21/326)) and duplication probands (5.7%, 10/76)).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe mean number of genes, mean pLI score and median size of additional pathogenic autosomal CNVs are similar in deletion and duplication proband carriers.
“The mean number of genes, the mean pLI score and the median size of additional pathogenic autosomal CNVs are also similar in deletion and duplication proband carriers (online supplementary figures S4A-C).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningThe estimated frequency of epilepsy in 15q11.2 deletion carriers is 3.5% or 2.1% depending on control group.
“Based on the prevalence of epilepsy in the paediatric population of 6.8 per 1000 children,39 we estimate the frequency of epilepsy in deletion carriers at 3.5% or 2.1% (table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe effect size of the 15q11.2 deletion on general intelligence is a decrease of 4.3 IQ points, equivalent to a shift of 0.28 z-scores.
“The effect size of the 15q11.2 on general intelligence is very mild with a decrease of 4.3 points in IQ, which is equivalent to a shift in IQ of 0.28 z-scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe distribution of epilepsy types is similar in 15q11.2 deletion and duplication carriers, with generalised seizures in 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively.
“Even the distribution of epilepsy types was similar in deletion and duplication carriers (generalised seizures in 6.4%–5.7%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the SJCHU database, among 406 CNVs with a pLI between 0.5 and 3, 60.6% are classified as benign, 7.6% as unknown, and 31.8% as pathogenic.
“In the SJCHU database, the diagnostic classification of 406 CNVs with a pLI between 0.5 and 3 is benign for 60.6% (n=246), unknown for 7.6% (n=31) and pathogenic for 31.8% (n=129) (online supplementary figure S5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataPublication bias was evaluated with contour-enhanced funnel plots and Egger's test.
“Publication bias was evaluated with the contour-enhanced funnel plot with reference line in zero (online supplementary figures S2 and S3). Funnel plot asymmetry was evaluated with a regression test (Egger’s test).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe meta-analyses used a random-effects model.
“We fitted a random-effects model to the data used.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningIf the 15q11.2 deletion had been less frequent, it would not have been identified as a neurodevelopmental risk factor.
“If the 15q11.2 deletion had been less frequent, it would obviously not have been identified as a neurodevelopmental risk factor.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenMany early case-control studies grossly underestimated the frequency of the deletion in the general population due to very small control groups.
“However, many of the early case–control studies grossly underestimated the frequency of the deletion in the general population due to very small control groups.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningIt is unclear which features among cognitive symptoms, seizure, and heart malformations mainly drive enrichment in neurodevelopmental cohorts.
“For example, it is unclear, which features among cognitive symptoms, seizure and heart malformations are mainly driving enrichment in neurodevelopmental cohorts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe association of the 15q11.2 deletion with ASD and CHD has yet to be demonstrated.
“This suggests that clinical series will report similar frequencies regardless of any formal association (ie, association of the 15q11.2 deletion with ASD and CHD has yet to be demonstrated).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThere is strong evidence associating the 15q11.2 deletion with NDDs and a decrease in cognitive abilities.
“There is strong evidence associating the 15q11.2 deletion with NDDs and a decrease in cognitive abilities so this variant should not be classified as ‘uncertain significance’.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 15q11.2 deletion has been assigned in laboratories as a variant of uncertain clinical significance, likely pathogenic, or pathogenic with variable expressivity and incomplete penetrance.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationVariants with uncertain clinical significance are subcategorised into likely pathogenic, likely benign, and no subclassification.
“Variants with uncertain clinical significance are subcategorised in likely pathogenic, likely benign and no subclassification.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenDifferent unselected population cohorts may provide slightly different prevalences of the 15q11.2 deletion and therefore change our estimates.
“Different unselected population cohorts may provide slightly different prevalence’s of the 15q11.2 deletion and therefore change our estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe American College of Medical Genetics guidelines recommend three categories of clinical significance: pathogenic, uncertain clinical significance, and benign.
“The guidelines of the American College of Medical Genetics45 46 recommend three categories of clinical significance including pathogenic, uncertain clinical significance and benign.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe effect size of the 15q11.2 deletion translates into a frequency of ID of 4.0% in deletion carriers, compared with 2% in the general population.
“This is identical to the estimate of the impact on IQ measured in carriers of the 15q11.2 deletion in the general Icelandic population41 and translates into a frequency of ID of 4.0% (compared with 2% in the general population).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The general population frequency of ID is 2%.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Every proband with a 15q11.2 deletion or duplication carries additional pathogenic variants.
“our working hypothesis is that every proband with a 15q11.2 deletion or duplication carry additional pathogenic variants.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
An additive model applies to the translation of the IQ effect into ID risk.
“Assuming an additive model, this effect translates into a 4% risk for ID (compared with 2% in the general population).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The 15q11.2 deletion has been assigned in laboratories as a variant of uncertain clinical significance, likely pathogenic, or pathogenic with variable expressivity and incomplete penetrance.
“The 15q11.2 deletion has been assigned in laboratories as a variant of uncertain clinical significance; likely pathogenic as well as pathogenic with variable expressivity and incomplete penetrance.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The general population frequency of ID is 2%.
“This is identical to the estimate of the impact on IQ measured in carriers of the 15q11.2 deletion in the general Icelandic population41 and translates into a frequency of ID of 4.0% (compared with 2% in the general population).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The pLI sum of the 15q11.2 deletion is 1.69.
“We investigated features of deletions with a pLI sum similar to the 15q11.2 deletion (pLI sum=1.69).”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Consistentz = 2.1337reported p = .0329 · recomputed p = .033
“(z=2.1337, p = .0329”
- Consistentz = 3.3826reported p = .0007 · recomputed p < .001
“(z=3.3826, p = .0007”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Generalised-seizure percentage has an inconsistent denominator
MinorTen of 76 duplication probands is 13.2%, not 5.7%. The reported percentage corresponds approximately to ten of the 176 duplication probands described elsewhere.
Reported 5.7 · recomputed 13.157895
“duplication probands (5.7%, 10/76))”
Duplication proband percentages use the wrong denominator
MinorAmong 170 duplication probands, 152 children constitute 89.4%, not 86.4%. The stated 86.4% uses 176, the total number of duplication probands, rather than the 170 with age data.
Reported 86.4 · recomputed 89.411765
“Frequencies were similar in 170 duplication probands with 86.4% (n=152) being children and 10.2% (n=18) adults.”
Discussion gives a different autism frequency for duplication probands
MinorThe discussion assigns approximately 17% autism frequency to the duplication-based control group, whereas table 4 reports 13.6% for duplication probands.
“Using the duplication as a ‘neutral CNV’ control group, we show that the average proband referred for CMA testing presents with ID, epilepsy, autism and cardiac malformations in approximately 35%, 14%, 17% and 6% of the cases, respectively.”
“| ASD | 1.9% | 2.4% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 13.6% |”
Stated BP1-BP2 span conflicts with its coordinates
MinorThe stated coordinates span 0.2 Mb, or 200 kb, rather than approximately 500 kb.
“The BP1–BP2 region span approximately 500 kb”
“between BP1 and BP2 (22.8–23.0 Mb, according to the human genome build CRCh37/hg19)”
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15q11.2 CNV affects cognitive, structural and functional correlates of dyslexia and dyscalculia
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16p11.2 600 kb Duplications confer risk for typical and atypical Rolandic epilepsy
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Sønderby, I. E., Ching, C. R. K., Thomopoulos, S. I., van der Meer, D., Sun, D., Villalon‐Reina, J. E., Agartz, I., Amunts, K., Arango, C., Armstrong, N. J., et al. (2022) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.25354 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“Reflecting these small effects, the vast majority of carriers are not clinically affected, and the deletion is inherited in >90% of the cases (Cox & Butler, 2015; Jønch et al., 2019; Mohan et al., 2019).”
BackgroundSelf-citationJacquemont, S., Huguet, G., Klein, M., Chawner, S. J. R. A., Donald, K. A., van den Bree, M. B. M., Sebat, J. L., Ledbetter, D. H., Constantino, J. N., Earl, R. K., et al. (2022) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2021.21040432 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
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“that the deletion should be classified as “pathogenic, of mild effect size” [36].”
BackgroundClinical evaluation of patients with a neuropsychiatric risk copy number variant
Chawner, S. J. R. A., Watson, C. J., & Owen, M. J. (2021) · Current Opinion in Genetics & Development · doi:10.1016/j.gde.2020.12.012 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Structural and functional brain alterations revealed by neuroimaging in CNV carriers
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Self-citationGenetic Heterogeneity Shapes Brain Connectivity in Psychiatry
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Self-citationSubcortical Brain Alterations in Carriers of Genomic Copy Number Variants
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Self-citationShould We Report 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 Deletions and Duplications in the Prenatal Setting?
Maya, I., Perlman, S., Shohat, M., Kahana, S., Yacobson, S., Tenne, T., Agmon‐Fishman, I., Matar, R. T., Basel‐Salmon, L., & Halevy, R. S. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm9082602 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Recent Developments in Autism Genetic Research: A Scientometric Review from 2018 to 2022
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“[176], with a coverage of 11 and a GCS of 19.”
BackgroundKrepischi, A. C. V., Villela, D., da Costa, S. S., Mazzonetto, P. C., Schauren, J. D. S., Migliavacca, M. P., Milanezi, F., dos Santos, J. G., Guida, G., Guarischi‐Sousa, R., et al. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-19274-6 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
A survey of RNA editing at single-cell resolution links interneurons to schizophrenia and autism
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“For cluster analysis of the phs000834 data, nucleiwere coloredaccording to the neuronal phenotypeand cortical region designated by Lake et al. (2016).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSilva, A. I., Kirov, G., Kendall, K. M., Bracher-Smith, M., Wilkinson, L. S., Hall, J., Ulfarsson, M. O., Walters, G. B., Stefánsson, H., Stefánsson, K., et al. (2021) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2021.02.969 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“However, more recent meta-analyses on published case-control studies have classified the deletion as a pathogenic of mild effect size (58).”
Pathogenic recurrent copy number variants in 7,078 pregnancies via chromosomal microarray analysis
Kang, H., Chen, Y., Wang, L., Gao, C., Li, X., & Hu, Y. (2023) · Journal of Perinatal Medicine · doi:10.1515/jpm-2022-0580 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“2 deletion [41, 42].”
Neuropsychological study in 19 French patients with White‐Sutton syndrome and POGZ mutations
Garde, A., Cornaton, J., Sorlin, A., Moutton, S., Nicolas, C., Juif, C., Geneviève, D., Perrin, L., Kien, P. K. V., Smol, T., et al. (2020) · Clinical Genetics · doi:10.1111/cge.13894 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“The proportion of this variant to symptoms of Patient 19 was considered modest.(11)”
BackgroundSelf-citationAdverse Perinatal and Early Life Outcomes following 15q11.2 CNV Diagnosis
Chu, F., Shaw, S. W., Lee, C., Lo, L., Hsu, J.-J., & Hung, T. (2021) · Genes · doi:10.3390/genes12101480 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“2 BP1–BP2 microdeletion has been found to be the leading cytogenetic finding of autism spectrum disorder [11,12].”
BackgroundMutations, Genes, and Phenotypes Related to Movement Disorders and Ataxias
Martínez‐Rubio, D., Hinarejos, I., Sancho, P., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms231911847 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“2 BP1-BP2 microdeletion (Table 3) whose implications in disease are controversial [20].”
BackgroundSønderby, I. E., Ching, C. R. K., Thomopoulos, S. I., van der Meer, D., Villalón‐Reina, J. E., Agartz, I., Amunts, K., Arango, C., Armstrong, N. J., Ayesa‐Arriola, R., et al. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/57erc · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citation15q11.2 deletion is enriched in patients with total anomalous pulmonary venous connection
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SRD5A3-CDG: Twins with an intragenic tandem duplication
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Adaptation of ACMG-ClinGen Technical Standards for Copy Number Variant Interpretation Concordance
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“A previous study (Jønch et al., 2019) has recommended that 15q11.”
MethodUpdated penetrance estimates for recurrent copy number variants – an improved definition and formula
Goh, S., Dudding‐Byth, T., Pinese, M., & Kirk, E. P. (2025) · European Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41431-025-01948-0 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
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Psychiatric Genetics in Clinical Practice: Essential Knowledge for Mental Health Professionals
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Rare copy number variation in posttraumatic stress disorder
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“2 duplication: As these CNVs have relatively milder impacts compared to some CNVs [54] [38], more seemingly unaffected carriers would exist in the investigated cohorts.”
Self-citationMoreau, C. A., Kumar, K., Harvey, A., Huguet, G., Urchs, S. G. W., Douard, E. A., Schultz, L. M., Sharmarke, H., Jizi, K., Martin, C.-O., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.05.21.21257604 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
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“, and colleagues recommended that the deletion should be classified as pathogenic of a mild effect size because it explains only a small proportion of the phenotypic variance in carriers [21].”
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Impact of copy number variants in epilepsy plus neurodevelopment disorders
João, S., Quental, R., Pinto, J., Almeida, C., Santos, H., & Dória, S. (2024) · Seizure · doi:10.1016/j.seizure.2024.01.009 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“[8].”
BackgroundEvaluation the Application of Karyotype Analysis and Chromosome Microarray in Prenatal Diagnosis
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Brownstein, C. A., Douard, E. A., Haynes, R. L., Koh, H. Y., Haghighi, A., Keywan, C., Martin, B. E., Alexandrescu, S., Haas, E. A., Vargas, S. O., et al. (2022) · Advanced Genetics · doi:10.1002/ggn2.202200012 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationCongenital heart disease presentations in the 15q11.2 microdeletion syndrome
Fifirig, C.-I., Abraham, S., Keavney, B. D., & Hentges, K. E. (2025) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2025.1535732 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
3q29 duplications: A cohort of 46 patients and a literature review
Massier, M., Doco‐Fenzy, M., Egloff, M., Horn, X. L. G., Guyader, G. L., Redon, S., Bénech, C., Millier, K. L., Uguen, K., Ropars, J., et al. (2024) · American Journal of Medical Genetics Part A · doi:10.1002/ajmg.a.63531 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Multiple molecular diagnoses have already been well-established to explain phenotype expansions or phenotypic heterogeneity (Karaca et al., 2018; Posey et al., 2017) et al., 2016; Girirajan et al., 2010; Jønch et al., 2019; Pizzo et al., 2019).”
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“3-point decrease in IQ and a slightly increased risk of schizophrenia and epilepsy [49].”
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“2 BP1-BP2 deletion [27].”
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“Traditional cytogenetic techniques play critical roles in identifying chromosomal inversions and translocations which could not be detected by CMA.([8]) While CMA allows the detection of microscopic imbalances in the kilobase range due to high resolution.”
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Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Connection in Mother and Son with a Central 22q11.2 Microdeletion
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Additional file 1 of The yield of SNP microarray analysis for fetal ultrasound cardiac abnormalities
Ye, F., Xu, X., Wang, Y., Chen, L., Shan, Q., Wang, Q., & Jin, F. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.25556530
Additional file 2 of The yield of SNP microarray analysis for fetal ultrasound cardiac abnormalities
Ye, F., Xu, X., Wang, Y., Chen, L., Shan, Q., Wang, Q., & Jin, F. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.25556675
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Additional file 3 of The yield of SNP microarray analysis for fetal ultrasound cardiac abnormalities
Ye, F., Xu, X., Wang, Y., Chen, L., Shan, Q., Wang, Q., & Jin, F. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26702791
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“23 microdeletion not only bring mental and intellectual abnormalities, but also increase a series of problems such as congenital heart disease, endocrine abnormalities, craniofacial malformations, and connective tissue abnormalities [28, 29].”
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“Some scholars believed that such CNVs with mild clinical manifestations and low penetrance should be considered as unreported to clinicians and couples (Jønch et al., 2019; Maya et al., 2020).”
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Jønch, A. E., Douard, E., Moreau, C., Van Dijck, A., Passeggeri, M., Kooy, F., Puechberty, J., Campbell, C., Sanlaville, D., Lefroy, H., Richetin, S., Pain, A., Geneviève, D., Kini, U., Le Caignec, C., Lespinasse, J., Skytte, A.-B., Isidor, B., Zweier, C., Caberg, J.-H., Delrue, M.-A., Møller, R. S., Bojesen, A., Hjalgrim, H., Brasch-Andersen, C., Lemyre, E., Ousager, L. B., & Jacquemont, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern Denmark (DK)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine (CA)
- Department of Medical Genetics, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CH)
- Hôpital Arnaud de Villeneuve (FR)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Service of Medical Genetics, CHUV Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Inserm (FR)
- John Radcliffe Hospital (GB)
- Service de Génétique Médical, CHU Nantes, Nantes, France
- Service de Cytogenetique, Centre Hospitalier de Chambéry, Chambéry, France
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nantes (FR)
- Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (DE)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liège (BE)
- Filadelfia (DK)
- Vejle Sygehus (DK)
- Department of Clinical Genetics, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Corresponding author
- Jacquemont, Sébastien
- ORCID
- Jønch, Aia Elise
- Douard, Elise
- Moreau, Clara
- Kooy, Frank
- Puechberty, Jacques
- Sanlaville, Damien
- Lefroy, Henrietta
- Geneviève, David
- Kini, Usha
- Skytte, Anne-Bine
- Isidor, Bertrand
- Zweier, Christiane
- Caberg, Jean-Hubert
- Delrue, Marie-Ange
- Møller, Rikke Steensbjerre
- Bojesen, Anders
- Hjalgrim, Helle
- Ousager, Lilian Bomme
- Jacquemont, Sébastien
- Venue
- Journal of Medical Genetics
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2019-08-26
- Volume
- 56
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 701-710
- ISSN
- 0022-2593 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-6244
- PMC
- PMC6817694
- OpenAlex
- W2970512107
- Semantic Scholar
- f3a51b262a7a55d485c2435e1153907795c98ca1
- Cited by
- 75
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 6
- FWCI
- 4.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Journal of Medical Genetics (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- IRIS (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Open Repository and Bibliography (University of Liège) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- SJ holds a Bursary Professor Fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation
- The Region of Zealand and Region of Southern of Denmark Joint Research Fund (14-001308)
- SJ holds a Canada Research Chair in neurodevelopmental disorders
- Odense University Hospital Free Research Fund (No.15-A857)
- SJ holds a Chair at the Jeanne et Jean Louis Lévesque Foundation
- Ph.D. Scholarship from the Region of Southern of Denmark
- Ph.D. Scholarship from the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern of Denmark
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genomic variations and chromosomal abnormalities
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetics and Neurodevelopmental Disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Keywords
- neurodevelopmental disorders, effect size, intellectual disability, schizophrenia, epilepsy, IQ, autism spectrum disorder, cardiac anomalies, ascertainment bias, genetic counseling, prenatal diagnosis, phenotypic variability
- MeSH terms
- Loss of Function Mutation, Autistic Disorder, Epilepsy, Female, Heart Diseases, Humans, Male, Intellectual Disability, Cohort Studies, Case-Control Studies, Sequence Deletion, DNA Copy Number Variations, Neurodevelopmental Disorders
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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