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Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence
Abstract
Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly ( P =0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women ( P =0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues. Conclusions— The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.
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“In the United States, it is estimated that the number of adults with AF would more than double by the year 2050;16 even higher increases have been predicted.14”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [14]
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“The lower AF incidence among women seems to be consistently observed outside North America and Europe, although fewer studies are available.1,16”
From Atrial fibrillation in women: epidemiology, pathophysiology, presentation, and prognosis (2016) · cites this paper as [16]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Miyasaka, Y., Barnes, M. E., Gersh, B. J., Cha, S. S., Bailey, K. R., Abhayaratna, W. P., Seward, J. B., & Tsang, T. S. M.
- Affiliations
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Circulation
- Published
- 2006-07-11
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 119-125
- ISSN
- 0009-7322 (ISSN-L)
- 1524-4539
- OpenAlex
- W2141889414
- Cited by
- 2,564
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 99 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 127 · 2021: 116 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 120 · 2018: 140 · 2017: 153 · 2016: 150 · 2015: 201 · 2014: 189 · 2013: 229 · 2012: 200
- FWCI
- 56.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2006-09-12)
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Circulation (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01 AG22070, R01AG022070)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- atrial fibrillation, incidence trends, prevalence projections, age-adjusted incidence, sex differences, Olmsted County, Minnesota, primary prevention, population projections
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Age Factors, Atrial Fibrillation, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Male, Medical Records, Minnesota, Obesity, United States, Incidence, Prevalence
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