Consistently Stable or Decreased Body Mass Index in Young Adulthood and Longitudinal Changes in Metabolic Syndrome Components: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study
Abstract
Background— Data are sparse regarding the association of stable body mass index (BMI) over the long term with metabolic syndrome components in young adults. Methods and Results— Participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, including white and black adults 18 to 30 years of age at the initial examination in 1985 to 1986, were stratified into groups by baseline BMI and change in BMI (stable/decreased, increased >2 kg/m 2 , or fluctuating) across all 6 examinations between years 0 and 15 of the study. Changes in metabolic syndrome components were compared between groups. Among 1358 men and 1321 women, 16.3% maintained a stable BMI, 73.9% had an increased BMI, and 9.8% had a fluctuating BMI. Over 15 years, participants with stable BMI had essentially unchanged levels of metabolic syndrome components, regardless of baseline BMI, whereas those with increased BMI had progressively worsening levels. For example, men with a baseline BMI of 20.0 to 24.9 kg/m 2 and stable BMI during follow-up had a mean increase of only 15 mg/dL in fasting triglycerides over 15 years compared with 65 mg/dL ( P <0.001) in those whose BMI increased. Incidence of metabolic syndrome at year 15 was lower in the stable BMI group (2.2%) compared with the increased BMI group (18.8%; P <0.001). Conclusions— Adverse progression of metabolic syndrome components with advancing age may not be inevitable. Young adults who maintained stable BMI over time had minimal progression of risk factors and lower incidence of metabolic syndrome regardless of baseline BMI. Greater public health efforts should be aimed at long-term weight stabilization.
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A meta-analysis of RCTs of GLP-1-based therapy showed reduced MACE irrespective of background SGLT2i use.
“Similarly, a meta-analysis of RCTs of GLP-1–based therapy showed reduced MACE irrespective of background SGLT2i use.68”
From 2026 AHA/ACC/ADA/ASN Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome (2026) · cites this paper as [68]
The Statistical Analysis and Incidence of Metabolic Syndrome sections describe a longitudinal CARDIA study comparing BMI-change groups, not a meta-analysis of randomized trials. Searches for GLP-1 therapy, SGLT2 inhibitor use, and MACE found no passage addressing the attributed finding; the copy therefore neither supports nor contradicts it. The indexed passages provide no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn CARDIA, women who maintained stable BMI had nonsignificant declines in systolic blood pressure, whereas women whose BMI increased had statistically significant average increases in systolic blood pressure of 9.8 to 12.5 mm Hg.
“For example, women who maintained stable BMI in this study had nonsignificant declines in SBP, whereas women whose BMI increased had statistically significant average increases in SBP of 9.8 mm Hg to 12.5 mm Hg.”
In the CARDIA study, young adults who maintained a stable BMI had no significant changes in systolic or diastolic blood pressure, whereas those who had an increase in BMI ≥2 kg/m2 had substantial increases in blood pressure.
“In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, young adults (mean age 25 years at baseline) who maintained a stable BMI (within 2 kg ⁄ m 2 of baseline) at 6 examinations during 15 years had no significant changes in SBP or DBP, whereas those who had an increase in their BMI 2 kg ⁄ m 2 had substantial increases in BP. 56”
In CARDIA, weight gain was more important than baseline weight, since the same patterns were observed for those who were at normal weight or overweight at baseline.
“Of note, this weight gain was more important than the baseline weight, since the same patterns were observed for those who were at normal weight or overweight at baseline.”
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- Authors
- Lloyd-Jones, D. M., Liu, K., Colangelo, L. A., Yan, L. L., Klein, L., Loria, C. M., Lewis, C. E., & Savage, P.
- Affiliations
- From the Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Ill (D.M.L.-J., K.L., L.A.C., L.L.Y., L.K.); Department of Health Economics and Management, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Peking, China (L.L.Y.); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Md (C.M.L., P.S.); and Division of Preventive Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham (C.E.L.).
- Northwestern University (US)
- Venue
- Circulation
- Published
- 2007-02-27
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1004-1011
- ISSN
- 0009-7322 (ISSN-L)
- 1524-4539
- OpenAlex
- W2077701646
- Semantic Scholar
- 3442a9183b29104e011bcf800d27ae7f64139f00
- Cited by
- 194
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 11.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Circulation (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc48049-61-0-1)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01-HC-48-049)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Adipokines, Inflammation, and Metabolic Diseases
- Keywords
- body mass index, metabolic syndrome, weight stability, young adults, BMI change, fasting triglycerides, metabolic syndrome incidence, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Blood Glucose, Coronary Disease, Fasting, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Risk Factors, Weight Gain, Body Mass Index, Incidence, Metabolic Syndrome, Diabetes Complications
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