Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)
Open accessAbstract
Background—: Limited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test. Methods and Results—: We examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile, absence of carotid plaque, brachial flow-mediated dilation >5% change, ankle-brachial index >0.9 and <1.3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L, homocysteine <10 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide <100 pg/mL, no microalbuminuria, no family history of coronary heart disease (any/premature), absence of metabolic syndrome, and healthy lifestyle were compared for all and hard coronary heart disease and all CVD events over the 10-year follow-up. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Among all negative risk markers, coronary artery calcium score of 0 was the strongest, with an adjusted mean DLR of 0.41 (SD, 0.12) for all coronary heart disease and 0.54 (SD, 0.12) for CVD, followed by carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile (DLR, 0.65 [SD, 0.04] and 0.75 [SD, 0.04], respectively). High-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L and normal ankle-brachial index had DLRs >0.80. Among clinical features, absence of any family history of coronary heart disease was the strongest (DLRs, 0.76 [SD, 0.07] and 0.81 [SD, 0.06], respectively). Net reclassification improvement analyses yielded similar findings, with coronary artery calcium score of 0 resulting in the largest, most accurate downward risk reclassification. Conclusions—: Negative results of atherosclerosis-imaging tests, particularly coronary artery calcium score of 0, resulted in the greatest downward shift in estimated CVD risk. These results may help guide discussions on the identification of individuals less likely to receive net benefit from lifelong preventive pharmacotherapy.
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Persons with a calcium score of zero are at very low risk.
“Persons with a calcium score of zero are at very low risk24, with increasing risk in the ordinal calcium score tiers identified by the deep learning system25–27.”
From Deep convolutional neural networks to predict cardiovascular risk from computed tomography (2021) · cites this paper as [24]
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- Authors
- Blaha, M. J., Cainzos-Achirica, M., Greenland, P., McEvoy, J. W., Blankstein, R., Budoff, M. J., Dardari, Z., Sibley, C. T., Burke, G. L., Kronmal, R. A., Szklo, M., Blumenthal, R. S., & Nasir, K.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- From Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., M.C.-A., J.W.M., Z.D., R.S.B., K.N.); Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (M.C.-A.); Departments of Medicine and Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL (P.G.); Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA,...
- Corresponding author
- Blaha, Michael J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Circulation
- Published
- 2016-03
- Volume
- 133
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 849-858
- ISSN
- 0009-7322 (ISSN-L)
- 1524-4539
- PMC
- PMC4775391
- OpenAlex
- W2292719256
- Cited by
- 485
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 41 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 18
- FWCI
- 42.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Circulation (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc95164-17-0-1, UL1TR001420, n01hc95165-34-0-1, n01hc95161-24-0-1, n01hc095169-003, n01hc95166-21-0-1, n01hc95162-31-0-1, n01hc95168-27-0-1, n01hc95160-18-0-1, n01hc095167-000, UL1TR001079, n01hc95163-22-0-1, n01hc95159-40-0-1, UL1TR000040)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01 HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC095169, N01 HC-95168, N01-HC-095165, N01 HC95167, (N01-HC-95163, N01 HC095163, N01 HC-95161, N01 HC95165, N01HC95164, N01-HC-095159, N01 HC095168, N01-HC-095162, N01-HC-095161, N01 HC095167, N01-HC-095160, N01 HC095166, N01 HC095164, N01‐HC‐95166, L30HL110027, N01 HC-95162, N01 HC95169)
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Cardiac Imaging and Diagnostics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Disease Prevention
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
- Keywords
- coronary heart disease risk, cardiovascular risk, diagnostic likelihood ratios, carotid intima-media thickness, ankle-brachial index, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, family history of coronary heart disease, risk reclassification, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
- MeSH terms
- Aged, C-Reactive Protein, Calcium, Cardiovascular Diseases, Coronary Vessels, Ethnicity, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Peptide Fragments, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Cohort Studies, Biomarkers, Natriuretic Peptide, Brain, Atherosclerosis
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