Estimating the Payoff to Attending a More Selective College: An Application of Selection on Observables and Unobservables
Abstract
Estimates of the effect of college selectivity on earnings may be biased because elite colleges admit students, in part, based on characteristics that are related to future earnings. We matched students who applied to, and were accepted by, similar colleges to try to eliminate this bias. Using the College and Beyond data set and National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972, we find that students who attended more selective colleges earned about the same as students of seemingly comparable ability who attended less selective schools. Children from low-income families, however, earned more if they attended selective colleges.
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The study uses a modified version of the Dale and Krueger (2002) method to control for student qualifications beyond those measured by high school GPA and test scores.
“We use the information on the UC campuses to which students were admitted, and the quality of those UC campuses, to implement a modified version of the method used in Dale and Krueger (2002) to control for student qualifications beyond those measured by high school GPA and test scores.”
From Affirmative action and university fit: evidence from Proposition 209 (2014) · cites this paper as Dale and Krueger (2002)
Failure to control for the full set of factors will likely result in biased estimates of the effects of attending more-selective colleges on the outcomes of interest.
“As has been noted in the literature, 20 failure to control for the full set of factors will likely to result in biased estimates of the effects of attending more-selective colleges on the outcomes of interest.”
From Affirmative action and university fit: evidence from Proposition 209 (2014) · cites this paper as Dale and Krueger (2002)
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- Authors
- Dale, S. B., & Krueger, A. B.
- Affiliations
- Mathematica Policy Research (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2002-11-01
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1491-1527
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2166257424
- Cited by
- 995
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 48 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 63 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 54 · 2012: 58
- FWCI
- 68.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Keywords
- college selectivity, elite universities, earnings, returns to college, selection on observables, selection on unobservables, university admission, low-income students, student ability
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