Affirmative Action, Mismatch, and Economic Mobility after California’s Proposition 209

Selective universities' positive treatment effects are considerably above-average for the URM applicants impacted by Prop 209.

“Second, that latter return substantially exceeds the average observed change in institutional value-added faced by URM UC applicants, suggesting that selective universities' positive treatment effects are considerably above-average for the URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 (as in Dale and Krueger (2014)).”

• cites Dale and Krueger (2014) sourceSupported

The return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants substantially exceeds the average observed change in institutional value-added faced by URM UC applicants.

“Second, that latter return substantially exceeds the average observed change in institutional value-added faced by URM UC applicants, suggesting that selective universities' positive treatment effects are considerably above-average for the URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 (as in Dale and Krueger (2014)).”

• cites Dale and Krueger (2014) sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction and Conclusion report that, unlike the generally near-zero selection-adjusted estimates, returns to college selectivity remain positive for Black and Hispanic students in the 1989 cohort. That supports the cited analogy, but the paper does not establish a comparison with institutional value-added for URM UC applicants or estimate effects for applicants affected by Prop 209. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

There was a simultaneous sharp rise in URM admits' average test scores.

“with a simultaneous sharp rise in URM admits' average test scores.”

Before Prop 209, only about three percent of similar-AI non-URM applicants enrolled at the three more-selective UC campuses.

“while only about three percent of similar-AI non-URM applicants did so.”

Enrolling at less-selective UC campuses did not improve URM students' performance or persistence in STEM course sequences.

“Enrolling at less-selective UC campuses did not improve URM students' performance or persistence in STEM course sequences.”

There are about four times as many non-URM UC applicants as URM applicants.

“There are about four times as many non-URM UC applicants as URM applicants”

The top AI quartile of Black applicants faced a 15 percentage point enrollment decline.

“with the top AI quartile of Black applicants facing a 15 percentage point enrollment decline”

URM UC applicants became even less likely to earn degrees after affirmative action was eliminated, with a 95-percent confidence interval of -1.69 to 0.27 percentage point change in average six-year degree attainment.

“and if anything became even less likely to earn degrees after affirmative action was eliminated, with a 95-percent confidence interval of -1.69 to 0.27 percentage point change in average six-year degree attainment.”

The average number of non-URM annual applications received by UC increased by more than 25 percent between 1994 and 1999.

“The average number of non-URM annual applications received by UC increased by more than 25 percent in the period, with increases of 42 percent at the more-selective campuses.”

At UCLA, average SAT scores rose 27 points among admits.

“At UCLA, for example, average SAT scores rose 17 points among non-URM applicants and 27 points among admits.”

URM applicants at the 25th percentile became less likely to enroll at the selective campuses.

“those at the 25th percentile became less likely to enroll at the selective campuses”

URM applicants' average SAT scores rose swiftly through the period.

“URM applicants' average SAT scores rose swiftly through the period”

Berkeley and UCLA each annually admitted more than 500 additional URM applicants using affirmative action.

“It shows that Berkeley and UCLA each annually admitted more than 500 annual additional URM applicants using affirmative action.”

American Community Survey data confirm a 2010s pattern of relative wage deterioration among high-earning early-career URM Californians.

“American Community Survey data confirm a 2010s pattern of relative wage deterioration among high-earning early-career URM Californians.”

URM applicants' undergraduate degree attainment declined overall after Prop 209.

“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”

Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to be 7.6 percentage points less likely to enroll at the more-selective UC campuses.

“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to be 7.6 percentage points less likely to enroll at the more-selective UC campuses”

URM enrollment rates rose slightly at UC's less-selective campuses.

“and rose slightly at the less-selective campuses.”

At Berkeley, 1994-1995 URM applicants with AIs between 6,000 to 7,100 were 80 percentage points more likely to be admitted than same-AI non-URM applicants.

“At the most-selective Berkeley campus, for example, 1994-1995 URM applicants with AIs between 6,000 to 7,100 were 80 percentage points more likely to be admitted than same-AI non-URM applicants.”

Prop 209 deterred thousands of qualified URM students from applying to any UC campus.

“Prop 209 also deterred thousands of qualified URM students from applying to any UC campus.”

At least 1,200 URM UC applicants exited UC campuses after Prop 209.

“Table A-7 shows that at least 1,200 URM UC applicants exited UC campuses”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.

After 1998, URM applicants to UC campuses became substantially less likely to earn admission at every campus.

“After 1998, URM applicants to UC campuses became substantially less likely to earn admission at every campus.”

Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile.

“Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile, and URM applicants' STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage points.”

The return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants is measurably large.

“First, the return to UC Berkeley admission for onthe-margin non-URM students appears small, while the return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants is measurably large.”

Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at less-selective universities with lower average SAT scores and graduation rates.

“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at less-selective universities with lower average SAT scores and graduation rates”

UC annually received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications after Prop 209.

“I find that UC annually received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications after Prop 209, almost 80 percent of whom would likely have been admitted to at least one UC campus.”

URM applicants at the 60th AI percentile became about 10 percentage points relatively more likely to enroll at the selective campuses.

“URM applicants at the 60th AI percentile became about 10 percentage points relatively more likely to enroll at the selective campuses”

Prop 209 led to larger relative enrollment declines at the more-selective UC campuses for Black applicants.

“Prop 209 led to larger relative enrollment declines at the moreselective UC campuses for Black applicants”

Black applicants were much more likely to flow into Ivy+ and out-of-state universities than Hispanic applicants.

“and Black applicants were much more likely to flow into Ivy+ and out-of-state universities than Hispanic applicants.”

At UC San Diego, URM enrollment decreased relative to non-URM for applicants with somewhat-lower AIs (20-60th percentiles).

“and decreased for those with somewhat-lower AIs (20-60th percentiles).”

There is little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Black-white economic mobility gap.

“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”

After Prop 209, the gap in enrollment at more-selective UC campuses between median-AI URM and similar-AI non-URM applicants largely closed.

“After Prop 209, this gap largely closed.”

URM enrollment rates fell precipitously at UC's more-selective campuses.

“URM enrollment rates fell precipitously at UC's more-selective campuses”

University affirmative action provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.

“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”

URM applicants' relative likelihood of enrollment at Berkeley and UCLA substantially declined across the AI spectrum.

“URM applicants' relative likelihood of enrollment at Berkeley and UCLA substantially declined across the AI spectrum.”

UC San Diego exhibits a pattern common to California's other public universities: URM enrollment increased relative to non-URM enrollment for higher-AI applicants (70-95th percentiles).

“UC San Diego exhibits a pattern common to California's other public universities: URM enrollment increased relative to non-URM enrollment for higher-AI applicants (70-95th percentiles)”

This resulted in a substantial net outflow of lower-income students from highly-selective public universities.

“This resulted in a substantial net outflow of lower-income students from highly-selective public universities.”

The admissions advantage shifted to higher-AI applicants over time as campuses became more selective overall.

“Seven of the eight UC campuses provided similar admissions advantages to URM applicants under affirmative action, with the advantage shifting to higher-AI applicants over time as the campuses became more selective overall.”

At UCLA, average SAT scores rose 17 points among non-URM applicants.

“At UCLA, for example, average SAT scores rose 17 points among non-URM applicants and 27 points among admits.”

Prop 209 caused a 1.3 percentage point decline in each URM applicant's likelihood of earning a graduate degree.

“Prop 209 also caused a 1.3 percentage point decline in each URM applicant's likelihood of earning a graduate degree, with much of that decline in STEM fields.”

Average SAT scores of most UC campuses' applicants steadily rose during the period.

“Meanwhile, the average SAT scores of most campuses' applicants were steadily rising”

University affirmative action improved Black educational attainment.

“I find little evidence that university affirmative action narrowed the Blackwhite economic mobility gap, which has received particular attention (Dobbie and Fryer Jr, 2011; Billings, Deming, and Rockoff, 2014; Chetty et al., 2020b), but find that it improved Black educational attainment and provided large long-run wage benefits to (mostly lower-income) Hispanic youths.”

Most campuses' URM admissions rates slowly declined until 1997 but then sharply declined in 1998.

“Most campuses' URM admissions rates slowly declined until 1997 but then sharply declined in 1998”

The average URM UC applicant's wages declined by five percent annually between ages 24 and 34 after Prop 209.

“As a result, the average URM UC applicant's wages declined by five percent annually between ages 24 and 34, almost wholly driven by declines among Hispanic applicants.”

• Also stated in: § Abstract · plain

  “Following these applicants into the labor market, I find that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to earn five percent lower average annual wages between ages 24 and 34 than they would have earned had affirmative action continued, with larger proportional effects for lower-AI applicants.”

Before Prop 209, about 30 percent of median-AI URM applicants enrolled at the three more-selective UC campuses.

“Before Prop 209, about 30 percent of median-AI URM applicants enrolled at the three more-selective UC campuses”

Lower-AI URM applicants' selective UC enrollment declined.

“while lower-AI URM applicants' selective UC enrollment declined.”

URM applicants at the 25th percentile became more likely to enroll at less-selective campuses.

“but more likely to enroll at less-selective campuses.”

URM applicants' degree attainment in STEM fields declined after Prop 209.

“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”

Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to enroll at relatively lower-quality colleges and universities.

“I show that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to enroll at relatively lower-quality colleges and universities, measuring quality both by traditional statistics like average test scores and graduation rates and by novel institutional value-added statistics.”

More than 800 URM UC applicants exited Berkeley and UCLA after Prop 209.

“with more than 800 exiting Berkeley and UCLA”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.

Each URM applicant became 1.4 percentage points less likely to annually earn $100,000 in their early 30s.

“Each applicant became 1.4 percentage points less likely to annually earn $100,000 (the 95 th wage percentile) in their early 30s.”

Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at institutions that lead their students to lower likelihoods of Bachelor's degree attainment by 0.5-0.9 percentage points.

“Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at institutions that (on average) lead their students to lower likelihoods of Bachelor's degree attainment by 0.5-0.9percentage points”

URM enrollment rates slightly declined at UC's selective campuses.

“slightly declined at the selective campuses”

The declines in enrollment institution quality were larger among lower-AI applicants.

“with larger declines among lower-AI applicants.”

800 URM UC applicants entered UC campuses after Prop 209.

“and 800 entered UC campuses after Prop 209.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Prop 209's monotonicity holds.

The 7.6 percentage point decline was particularly driven by the second and third URM AI quartiles.

“particularly driven by the second and third URM AI quartiles”

The bottom AI quartile's enrollment largely flowed from the more-selective and selective UC campuses to less-selective public and private California universities.

“whose enrollment was shown above to largely flow from the more-selective and selective UC campuses to less-selective public and private California universities.”

Higher-AI URM applicants became more likely to enroll at the selective and less-selective campuses.

“Higher-AI URM applicants became more likely to enroll at the selective and less-selective campuses”

URM applicants' STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage points.

“Bachelor's degree attainment declined by 4.3 percentage points among URM UC applicants in the bottom AI quartile, and URM applicants' STEM degree attainment declined by 1.0 percentage points.”

URM students' outcomes largely decline in exactly 1998.

“While I find that using 1994-95 as an alternative baseline generally yields slightly larger estimates of Prop 209's effect, URM students' outcomes largely decline in exactly 1998.”

The magnitude of the remaining sample selection bias is very small.

“I directly quantify the degree of Prop 209's URM application deterrence in Section 4 and present evidence that the magnitude of the remaining bias is very small.”

Value-added declines were smaller among high-AI URM applicants.

“with smaller value-added declines among high-AI URM applicants.”

Prop 209 led to small corresponding enrollment increases across the spectrum of other public and private higher education institutions.

“and led to small corresponding enrollment increases across the spectrum of other public and private higher education institutions.”

Ending affirmative action caused UC's 10,000 annual URM freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality public and private universities.

“Ending affirmative action caused UC's 10,000 annual underrepresented minority (URM) freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality public and private universities.”

Seven of the eight UC campuses provided similar admissions advantages to URM applicants under affirmative action.

“Seven of the eight UC campuses provided similar admissions advantages to URM applicants under affirmative action, with the advantage shifting to higher-AI applicants over time as the campuses became more selective overall.”

URM UC applicants were less likely to earn Bachelor's degrees than academically-comparable non-URM applicants under AA.

“The first two columns show that URM UC applicants were less likely to earn Bachelor's degrees than academically-comparable non-URM applicants under AA”

The wage effects were larger proportionally for lower-AI applicants.

“Following these applicants into the labor market, I find that Prop 209 led URM UC applicants to earn five percent lower average annual wages between ages 24 and 34 than they would have earned had affirmative action continued, with larger proportional effects for lower-AI applicants.”

These gaps are largely explained by students' prior academic opportunities and preparedness, not their enrollment institution.

“While I find that before Prop 209 URM UC students earned lower grades and were less likely to persist along introductory STEM course sequences than their non-URM peers, these gaps are largely explained by students' prior academic opportunities and preparedness, not their enrollment institution.”

The effect on six-year degree attainment is wholly driven by the bottom AI quartile of URM applicants.

“This effect is wholly driven by the bottom AI quartile of URM applicants”

There is little evidence of labor market deterioration among Black UC applicants after Prop 209.

“The observed wage effects are almost wholly driven by Hispanic applicants; despite similar enrollment and degree attainment outcomes, I find little evidence of labor market deterioration among Black UC applicants after Prop 209.”

Prop 209 caused URM UC applicants to enroll at institutions whose graduates earn $400-$900 lower annual early-30s wages.

“and whose graduates earn $400-$900 lower annual early-30s wages”

Admissions rates consistently fell at all but the least-selective Riverside campus.

“As a result, admissions rates consistently fell at all but the least-selective Riverside campus.”

URM applicants across the full AI distribution became less likely to enroll at more-selective UC campuses.

“URM applicants across the full AI distribution became less likely to enroll at more-selective UC campuses.”

Increasing selectivity of UC campuses led to decreased enrollment likelihoods of all but the highest-AI non-URM applicants.

“Meanwhile, the increasing selectivity of UC campuses also led to decreased enrollment likelihoods of all but the highest-AI non-URM applicants.”

The teaching-oriented CSU university system and California community colleges also absorbed some low-AI URM applicants.

“The teachingoriented CSU university system and California community colleges also absorbed some low-AI URM applicants”

URM applicants' graduate degree attainment declined overall after Prop 209.

“URM applicants' undergraduate and graduate degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among lower-testing applicants.”

The institutions where URM UC applicants enrolled after Prop 209 are estimated to have lower average value-added.

“Those institutions are also estimated to have lower average”

The return to UC Berkeley admission for on-the-margin non-URM students appears small.

“First, the return to UC Berkeley admission for onthe-margin non-URM students appears small, while the return to more-selective enrollment among URM UC applicants is measurably large.”

The wage decline was almost wholly driven by declines among Hispanic applicants.

“As a result, the average URM UC applicant's wages declined by five percent annually between ages 24 and 34, almost wholly driven by declines among Hispanic applicants.”

• Also stated in: § Abstract · plain

  “The observed wage effects are almost wholly driven by Hispanic applicants; despite similar enrollment and degree attainment outcomes, I find little evidence of labor market deterioration among Black UC applicants after Prop 209.”

Ending UC's affirmative action policies caused URM applicants to become less likely to earn any graduate degrees.

“but it did cause them to become less likely to earn STEM degrees and any graduate degrees”

After Prop 209, many highly-qualified URM public high school graduates sent SAT scores to a UC campus but nevertheless did not apply.

“in fact, after Prop 209 many highly-qualified URM public high school graduates sent SAT scores to a UC campus but nevertheless did not apply.”

Educational outcomes after Prop 209 appear broadly similar for Black and Hispanic applicants.

“Educational outcomes after Prop 209 appear broadly similar for Black and Hispanic applicants.”

Academically-comparable URM and non-URM workers earned similar wages before Prop 209 but diverged afterwards.

“showing that academically-comparable URM and non-URM workers earned similar wages before Prop 209 but diverged afterwards.”

Compared to a 1996-97 baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates imply that each URM applicant became about 1.3 percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014.

“Compared to a 1996-97 (1994-1995) baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates above imply that each of those applicants became about 1.3 (3.1) percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014”

AI and ethnicity explained 40-70 percent of admissions variation at most mid-1990s UC campuses.

“AI and ethnicity explained 40-70 percent of admissions variation at most mid-1990s UC campuses; see Figure A-1.”

Prop 209 discouraged thousands of additional academically-competitive URM students from sending applications to public research universities in the first place.

“Prop 209 also discouraged thousands of additional academicallycompetitive URM students from sending applications to public research universities in the first place.”

Applicants' changed degree attainment is less than half of the change in the six-year graduation rates of the institutions where they enroll.

“Applicants' changed degree attainment is less than half of the change in the six-year graduation rates of the institutions where they enroll”

Ending UC's affirmative action policies caused URM applicants to become less likely to earn STEM degrees.

“but it did cause them to become less likely to earn STEM degrees and any graduate degrees”

URM application rates following Prop 209 declined by between 4 and 6 percent of all UC-eligible URM public high school graduates.

“It shows that URM application rates following Prop 209 declined by between 4 and 6 percent of all UC-eligible URM public high school graduates.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The true distribution of AI across school-year-ethnicity cohorts remains unchanged over time.

Application rates among Asian students increased by less than two percent relative to white applications after Prop 209.

“As a placebo test, it also shows that application rates among Asian students increased by less than two percent relative to white applications.”

This ratio is lower than those estimated by Cohodes and Goodman (2014) and Bleemer (2018a) in other contexts.

“a lower ratio than those estimated by Cohodes and Goodman (2014) and Bleemer (2018a) in other contexts.”

• cites Cohodes and Goodman (2014) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Bleemer (2018a)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Adding family background covariates like parental income, education, and occupation does not change the estimated coefficient for the decline in URM persistence at Berkeley.

“however, adding those covariates does not change the estimated coefficient.”

Prop 209 caused an annual decline in URM UC enrollment of about 800 students in 1998-99, or 14 percent.

“Combined with the estimated enrollment decline among UC applicants, this implies that Prop 209 caused an annual decline in URM UC enrollment of about 800 students in 1998-99, or 14 percent.”

• Also stated in: § 8. CONCLUSION · hedged

  “The total enrollment of Black and Hispanic students at the University of California declined by about 800 students per year after 1998, when the university's eight undergraduate campuses all ceased implementing race-based affirmative action as a result of Proposition 209.”

The increased likelihood of Berkeley admission causes about one-third of newly-admitted on-the-margin non-URM students to enroll.

“Figure 10(b) shows that the increased likelihood of Berkeley admission causes about one-third of newly-admitted on-the-margin non-URM students to enroll.”

URM UC applicants' educational declines after Prop 209 are generally somewhat larger when compared to a 1995 baseline.

“Table A-12 shows that URM UC applicants' educational declines after Prop 209 are generally somewhat larger when compared to a 1995 baseline”

Prop 209 caused no estimable change in Asian applicants' longer-run wage outcomes relative to other non-URM applicants.

“Figure A-15 shows that Prop 209 also caused no estimable change in Asian applicants' longer-run wage outcomes relative to other non-URM applicants.”

Prop 209 caused a decline in unconditional STEM degree attainment by 1.0 percentage point (s.e. 0.4).

“this provides strong evidence for Prop 209 causing a decline in unconditional STEM degree attainment by 1.0 percentage point (s.e.0.4).”

The effects of Prop 209 on URM persistence were tightly-estimated 0's at the other four observed UC campuses.

“Table A-19 shows that the effects of Prop 209 on URM persistence were tightlyestimated 0's at the other four other observed UC campuses.”

URM students were particularly discouraged from applying to the Berkeley and UCLA campuses after Prop 209.

“It shows that URM students were particularly discouraged from applying to the Berkeley and UCLA campuses”

URM applicants became 1.3 percentage points (s.e. 0.5) less likely to earn graduate degrees after Prop 209 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants.

“URM applicants became 1.3 percentage points (s.e.0.5) less likely to earn graduate degrees after Prop 209 relative to academicallycomparable non-URM applicants”

The fields with largest increases in URM UC applicants' fields of study after 1998 are biology (0.62 percentage points) and miscellaneous humanities fields (0.30).

“the fields with largest increases after 1998 are biology (0.62 percentage points) and miscellaneous humanities fields (0.30)”

There is little evidence of a wage decline for Black applicants following Prop 209.

“there is little such evidence for Black applicants”

Black applicants already earned substantially lower average wages than academically-comparable Hispanic students before Prop 209.

“with Black applicants already earning substantially lower average wages than academically-comparable Hispanic students”

Prop 209 had no net effect on URM UC applicants' California labor market participation.

“The first panel shows that Prop 209 had no net effect on URM UC applicants' California labor market participation”

In the two years before Prop 209, URM UC enrollees were less likely to persist along STEM course sequences by 9.3 percentage points.

“and were less likely to persist along STEM course sequences by 9.3 percentage points.”

American Community Survey estimates show that there were 27,000 URM Californians earning over $100,000 in 2014.

“American Community Survey estimates show that there were 27,000 URM Californians earning over $100,000 in 2014”

• cites American Community SurveyNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

There is no evidence of a decline in medical degree attainment after Prop 209.

“and no such evidence for medical degrees.”

Almost half of the decline in graduate degree attainment can be explained by a decline in STEM-oriented masters and doctoral degrees, for which attainment declines 0.58 percentage points (s.e. 0.21).

“Almost half of this decline can be explained by a decline in STEM-oriented masters and doctoral degrees, for which attainment declines 0.58 percentage points (s.e.0.21).”

The effects' magnitudes are a small fraction of those observed for URM students.

“the effects' magnitudes are a small fraction of those observed for URM students.”

Compared to a 1994-1995 baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates imply that each URM applicant became about 3.1 percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014.

“Compared to a 1996-97 (1994-1995) baseline, the difference-in-difference estimates above imply that each of those applicants became about 1.3 (3.1) percentage points less likely to earn at least $100,000 per year in California in 2014”

Ending UC's affirmative action policies did not lead URM applicants to earn higher grades in challenging courses.

“Ending UC's affirmative action policies did not lead the university's URM applicants to earn higher grades in challenging courses”

Estimates are similar relative to mean class wages or including class fixed effects.

“Estimates are similar relative to mean class wages or including class fixed effects.”

Application deterrence caused a decline in URM UC enrollment by about 450 students, half from Berkeley and UCLA.

“Table A-7 links these application declines to the AI-and campus-specific enrollment changes presented in Figure 3 to show that application deterrence caused a decline in URM UC enrollment by about 450 students, half from Berkeley and UCLA.”

URM applicants may have become somewhat less likely to earn STEM degrees conditional on earning a college degree (95-percent c.i. -1.65 to 0.35 percentage points).

“The third and fourth columns of Table 3 show that URM applicants may have become somewhat less likely to earn STEM degrees conditional on earning a college degree (95-percent c.i. -1.65 to 0.35 percentage points).”

The resulting percentiles exhibit minimal trend in the years before and after Prop 209, with an approximately one percentage point decline observed between 1997 and 1998 caused by Prop 209.

“Panel (f) shows that the resulting percentiles exhibit minimal trend in the years before and after Prop 209, with an approximately one percentage point decline observed between 1997 and 1998 caused by Prop 209.”

The increase in class rank did not translate into any observable improvement in URM students' likelihood of STEM persistence or course grades.

“However, this increase in class rank did not translate into any observable improvement in those students' likelihood of STEM persistence or course grades.”

Applicants in the other quartiles do not appear to have faced declines in degree attainment despite enrolling at institutions with lower graduation rates.

“while applicants in the other quartiles do not appear to have faced declines in degree attainment despite enrolling at institutions with lower graduation rates.”

UC-ineligible applicants were only slightly deterred by Prop 209.

“and that UC-ineligible applicants were only slightly deterred by Prop 209.”

The wages of Hispanic students sharply declined following Prop 209 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants.

“While the wages of Hispanic students sharply declined following Prop 209 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants”

Among wage-earning UC applicants, Prop 209 caused URM workers' wages to decline by $2,400 (0.04 log points) in their early 30s.

“or $2,400 (0.04 log points) in their early 30s.”

URM UC enrollees' STEM major choice is precisely unchanged relative to academically-comparable non-URM enrollees after Prop 209, with a 95 percent confidence interval rejecting increases above 1.5 percentage points.

“URM UC enrollees' STEM major choice is precisely unchanged relative to academically-comparable non-URM enrollees after Prop 209, with a 95 percent confidence interval rejecting increases above 1.5 percentage points.”

69 percent of applicants annually earned covered California wages before and after Prop 209.

“69 percent of applicants annually earned covered California wages before and after Prop 209.”

On average, a one percentile change in the 2001-17 URM wage distributions corresponds to $1,940, closely matching the estimated decline in URM UC applicants' wages after Prop 209.

“On average, a one percentile change in the 2001-17 URM wage distributions corresponds to $1,940, closely matching the estimated decline in URM UC applicants' wages after Prop 209.”

Even the least-selective Riverside campus rejected low-AI applicants with certain intended majors.

“and even the leastselective Riverside campus rejected low-AI applicants with certain intended majors.”

Relative to academically-comparable non-URM UC students, 1996-97 URM students were 7.3 percentiles lower in their classes' SAT distribution, largely reflecting their enrollment at relatively more-selective UC campuses.

“Relative to academically-comparable non-URM UC students, however, 1996-97 URM students were 7.3 percentiles lower in their classes' SAT distribution, largely reflecting their enrollment at relatively more-selective UC campuses.”

The bottom AI quartile had an estimated ratio closer to 1.

“The bottom AI quartile had an estimated ratio closer to 1”

This study's baseline results show that banning affirmative action leads to large relative educational and labor market declines for URM university applicants.

“This study's baseline results show that banning affirmative action leads to large relative educational and labor market declines for URM university applicants.”

Among wage-earning UC applicants, Prop 209 caused URM workers' wages to persistently decline by an average of $1,800 (0.05 log points).

“Among wage-earning UC applicants, however, Prop 209 caused URM workers' wages to persistently decline by an average of $1,800 (0.05 log points)”

The fields with largest decreases are economics (-0.39), history (-0.32), and mathematics (-0.29).

“while those with the largest decreases are economics (-0.39), history (-0.32), and mathematics (-0.29)”

The decline in graduate degree attainment was particularly large among lower-AI applicants.

“with particularly-large declines among lower-AI applicants.”

Wage declines are proportionally larger for lower-AI URM applicants.

“Table A-13 shows that these wage declines are proportionally larger for lower-AI URM applicants.”

Undergraduate degree attainment declined among lower-testing URM applicants after Prop 209.

“and undergraduate degree attainment declined among lower-testing URM applicants.”

Figure A-10 shows that the fraction of early-and mid-30s URM Californians earning wages above $100,000 disproportionately declined in the years that those cohorts would have lost selective university access as a result of Prop 209.

“Figure A-10 shows that the fraction of early-and mid-30s URM Californians earning wages above $100,000 indeed disproportionately declined in the years that those cohorts would have lost selective university access as a result of Prop 209.”

There is only weak evidence of a decline in law degree attainment after Prop 209.

“There is only weak evidence of a decline in law degree attainment”

Hispanic students earn somewhat higher wages than academically-comparable non-URM applicants.

“who also earn somewhat higher wages than academically-comparable non-URM applicants”

Members of several comparison groups all became slightly more likely to earn over $100,000 over the period.

“Members of several comparison groups -including slightly older URM Californians, similar-aged URM non-Californians, and similar-aged non-URM Californians -all became slightly more likely to earn over $100,000 over the period.”

In the two years before Prop 209, URM UC enrollees earned lower average grades in introductory STEM courses by 0.36 GPA points.

“In the two years before Prop 209, URM UC enrollees earned lower average grades in introductory STEM courses by 0.36 GPA points”

These gaps are broadly present across most introductory STEM courses.

“These gaps are broadly present across most introductory STEM courses.”

Ending affirmative action led to substantial relative declines in URM students' persistence and performance across most STEM courses at Berkeley.

“Unlike at those other campuses, however, ending affirmative action led to substantial relative declines in URM students' persistence and performance across most STEM courses.”

Estimates are largely insensitive to omitting students in Colleges of Engineering.

“Estimates are largely insensitive to omitting students in Colleges of Engineering, who may face different incentives around completing STEM course sequences.”

As late as age 34, there is no evidence that the average wages of URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 recover to their earlier levels.

“As late as age 34, there is no evidence that the average wages of URM applicants impacted by Prop 209 recover to their earlier levels.”

Prop 209 similarly impacted Black and Hispanic UC enrollees' STEM persistence and performance outcomes.

“Figure A-12 shows that Prop 209 similarly impacted Black and Hispanic UC enrollees' STEM persistence and performance outcomes.”

Only 6.2 percent of the baseline sample did not have observed enrollment in NSC.

“Table A-6 shows that only 6.2 percent of the baseline sample did not have observed enrollment in NSC”

In 1996-97, among the 88 percent of missing-ethnicity applicants whose ethnicity can be classified, 68 percent are white, 29 percent are Asian, 2.5 percent are Hispanic, and 0.6 percent are Black.

“In 1996-97, I find that among the 88 percent of missing-ethnicity applicants whose ethnicity can be classified, 68 percent are white, 29 percent are Asian, 2.5 percent are Hispanic, and 0.6 percent are Black.”

After Prop 209, URM applicants' admissions advantages at Berkeley and UCLA fell to 13 and 11 percentage points.

“these advantages fell to 13 and 11 percentage points after Prop 209.”

California labor market participation is unchanged after Prop 209 for all four AI quartiles of URM applicants.

“Figure A-8 shows that California labor market participation is unchanged after Prop 209 for all four AI quartiles of URM applicants.”

Every UC campus saw sharp immediate declines in URM admission between 1997 and 1998.

“but every UC campus saw sharp immediate declines in URM admission between 1997 and 1998”

The percent of UC applicants who declined to report ethnicity increased from 4.1 percent in 1996-97 to 10.5 percent in 1998-99.

“The percent of UC applicants who declined to report ethnicity on their application increased from 4.1 percent in 1996-97 to 10.5 percent in 1998-99”

There is a small measurable enrollment shift from community and private California colleges into non-California universities and the less-selective UC campuses among Asian students.

“There is a small measurable enrollment shift from community and private California colleges into non-California universities and the less-selective UC campuses”

The estimated change in institutional six-year graduation rate across the threshold is -0.2 percentage points, with a 2.1 standard error.

“The estimated change in institutional six-year graduation rate across the threshold is -0.2 percentage points, with a 2.1 standard error.”

Coverage at the somewhat-selective institutions at which UC applicants tended to enroll was substantially higher.

“Coverage at the somewhat-selective institutions at which UC applicants tended to enroll was substantially higher.”

Among all applicants to any UC campus, URM applicants' admissions advantage over non-URM applicants fell from 9.3 to 1.4 percentage points.

“Among all applicants to any UC campus, URM applicants' admissions advantage over non-URM applicants (to be admitted to at least one campus) fell from 9.3 to 1.4 percentage points.”

The more selective UC campuses saw sharp year-over-year declines in URM enrollment.

“and the more selective UC campuses also saw sharp year-over-year declines in URM enrollment.”

Some UC campuses saw relatively large declines in URM admission and enrollment likelihood between 1995 and 1996 relative to academically comparable non-URM applicants, particularly at UCLA and the less-selective UCs.

“FigureA-3 shows that some UC campuses saw relatively-large declines in URM admission and enrollment likelihood between 1995 and 1996 relative to academically-comparable non-URM applicants (particularly at UCLA and the less-selective UCs)”

NSC routinely captures more than 90 percent of STEM degree attainment at all campuses throughout the period, conditional on degree reporting in both data sets.

“a comparison between NSC and UC major reporting (measured by which students earned STEM degrees) shows that NSC routinely captures more than 90 percent of STEM degree attainment at all campuses throughout the period (conditional on degree reporting in both data sets).”

Only UC Santa Cruz failed to report a substantial number of earned degrees among the late 1990s graduation cohorts.

“A comparison between UC and NSC graduation records suggests that only UC Santa Cruz failed to report a substantial number of earned degrees among the late 1990s graduation cohorts”

VA estimates by quartile show that VA wage estimates generally poorly match the observed effects of Prop 209, with the true impact more widely distributed across the AI distribution than the expected effects based on changes in VA.

“the VA estimates by quartile show that the VA wage estimates generally poorly match the observed effects of Prop 209, with the true impact more widely distributed across the AI distribution than the expected effects based on changes in VA.”

One-third of in-sample applicants within 400 AI of the threshold earned over $100,000 in their early 30s.

“with one-third of in-sample applicants (within 400 AI of the threshold) earning over $100,000 in their early 30s.”

White and Asian UC applicants showed similar admissions trends after 1998.

“TableA-3 presents descriptive statistics for white and Asian UC applicants before and after Prop 209, with both showing similar admissions trends after 1998.”

The STEM performance and persistence of URM students across five UC campuses does not improve following Prop 209, despite those students' enrollment at less-selective campuses.

“Section 5 shows that the STEM performance and persistence of URM students across five UC campuses does not improve following Prop 209, despite those students' enrollment at less-selective campuses.”

Most UC campuses saw smaller declines in 1996 and large declines in 1998.

“Most campuses saw smaller declines in 1996 and large declines in 1998.”

The coefficients on Asian students' enrollment at more-selective and selective UC campuses are precisely-estimated zeroes.

“The coefficients on Asian students' enrollment at more-selective and selective UC campuses are precisely-estimated zeroes”

URM applicants who were admitted to some UC campus became less likely to enroll at UC after Prop 209.

“though URM applicants who were admitted to some UC campus became less likely to enroll at UC”

There is no estimated change in likelihood of California employment across the Berkeley access threshold.

“There is no estimated change in likelihood of California employment across the Berkeley access threshold”

Admitted URM applicants became more likely to enroll at every UC campus after Prop 209.

“Table A-5 shows that admitted URM applicants became more likely to enroll at every UC campus after Prop 209”

Applicants' number of early-30s years employed in California increases by 0.14 years (s.e. 0.17) across the Berkeley access threshold.

“applicants' number of early-30s years employed in California increases by 0.14 years (s.e.0.17).”

In 1998-99, of the 87 percent classified, whites and Asians make up 65 and 29 percent, while Hispanics and Blacks make up 4.2 and 1.3 percent.

“The URM shares are hardly higher in 1998-99; of the 87 percent classified, whites and Asians make up 65 and 29 percent, while Hispanics and Blacks make up 4.2 and 1.3 percent.”

No presented result changes statistically or qualitatively if predicted-URM applicants are re-assigned as URM.

“No presented result changes statistically or qualitatively if predicted-URM applicants are re-assigned as URM.”

Using 1994-95 as an alternative baseline generally yields slightly larger estimates of Prop 209's effect.

“While I find that using 1994-95 as an alternative baseline generally yields slightly larger estimates of Prop 209's effect, URM students' outcomes largely decline in exactly 1998.”

Both value-added procedures understate selective universities' treatment effects among the URM students impacted by Prop 209.

“suggesting that both value-added procedures understate selective universities' treatment effects among the URM students impacted by Prop 209.”

Given that many URM applicants' undergraduate enrollment remained unchanged by Prop 209, the presented reduced-form coefficients likely underestimate impacted students' treatment effect of enrolling at less-selective universities after UC affirmative action ended.

“Given that many URM applicants' undergraduate enrollment remained unchanged by Prop 209, the presented reduced-form coefficients likely underestimate impacted students' treatment effect of enrolling at less-selective universities after UC affirmative action ended.”

The baseline estimates are highly insensitive to a school-ethnicity-AI control function and other detailed socioeconomic and academic covariates, suggesting the absence of remaining bias.

“While this application deterrence could generate bias, I find that the baseline estimates are highly insensitive to both a school-ethnicity-AI control function (following Card and Rothstein (2007)) as well as other highlydetailed socioeconomic and academic covariates, suggesting the absence of remaining bias.”

• cites Card and Rothstein (2007) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

The estimates identify the impact of Prop 209 on URM student outcomes relative to its impact on non-URM outcomes.

“As a result, the estimates presented below identify the impact of Prop 209 on URM student outcomes relative to its impact on non-URM outcomes.”

The value of selective public university access for on-the-margin non-URM students was small.

“This suggests that the value of selective public university access for on-themargin non-URM students was small.”

If universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal, as much as 20 percent of the relative treatment effect estimates could be explained by improved outcomes among non-URM students who benefited from Prop 209.

“If universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal, this implies that as much as 20 percent of the relative treatment effect estimates described below could be explained by improved outcomes among non-URM students who benefited from Prop 209.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Universities' treatment effects for on-the-margin URM and non-URM students are equal.

Almost 80 percent of the deterred applicants would likely have been admitted to at least one UC campus.

“I find that UC annually received about 250 fewer Black and 900 fewer Hispanic applications after Prop 209, almost 80 percent of whom would likely have been admitted to at least one UC campus.”

The research design spans outcomes for all UC applicants whether or not they ever enroll at a UC campus, helping to avoid sample selection bias from changes in UC student composition.

“A key feature of this research design is that it spans outcomes for all UC applicants whether or not they ever enroll at a UC campus.This helps to avoid concerns of sample selection bias that arise from changes in the UC student composition caused by UC's changed admissions policies following Prop 209.”

Two pieces of evidence favor affirmative action's Kaldor-Hicks efficiency.

“While affirmative action is unlikely to be Pareto efficient, two pieces of evidence favor its Kaldor-Hicks efficiency, which in this case requires (to a first-order approximation) that the benefit of more-selective university enrollment is greater for the URM enrollees targeted by affirmative action than for the non-URM students who would have enrolled in their place.”

By the mid-2010s, Prop 209 had caused a cumulative decline in the number of early-career URM Californians earning over $100,000 by at least three percent.

“By the mid-2010s, Prop 209 had caused a cumulative decline in the number of early-career URM Californians earning over $100,000 by at least three percent.”

• Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged

  “Nevertheless, given the magnitude of UC's applicant pool, these estimates imply that by 2014, Prop 209 had caused an aggregate decline in the number of high-earning URM Californians in their early 30s by at least three percent.”

Proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at California public universities in 1998.

“Proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at California public universities in 1998.”

• Also stated in: § 1.1 University of California Admissions in the 1990s · plain

  “Prop 209 has prohibited UC and other public institutions in California from”

• cites Douglass, 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The confidence intervals cannot rule out positive treatment effects for students just below Berkeley's admissions threshold.

“Employing a regression discontinuity design, I find that students just below Berkeley's admissions threshold nevertheless enrolled at similar-quality universities and ended up with similar educational and labor market outcomes, though the confidence intervals cannot rule out positive treatment effects.”

The non-URM UC applicant group are not a traditional control group because they were also partly treated by Prop 209.

“However, the non-URM UC applicant group are not a traditional”

Affirmative action had proportional effects for Asian and white applicants.

“Compared to academicallycomparable white applicants, Asian applicants enrolled at similar universities and had indistinguishable long-run labor market outcomes after Prop 209, suggesting proportional effects of affirmative action for both groups.”

Comparing outcomes of URM and non-URM applicants after 1998 accounts for substantial shifts in UC campuses' reputation and selectivity through the period.

“Comparing the outcomes of URM and non-URM applicants after 1998 accounts for the substantial shifts in UC campuses' reputation and selectivity through the period”

Affirmative action's net wage benefits for URM applicants exceed its net costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.

“Complementary regression discontinuity and institutional value-added analyses suggest that affirmative action's net wage benefits for URM applicants exceed its (potentially small) net costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.”

Overall, the enrollment patterns are consistent with a substantial cascade of URM students from more- to less-selective universities after 1998.

“Overall, these patterns are consistent with a substantial cascade of URM students from more-to less-selective universities after 1998”

Barely-admitted non-URM students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-quality institutions and thus faced similar long-run outcomes.

“I also present local regression discontinuity evidence highlighting the importance of the counterfactual options available to near-threshold applicants; in UC Berkeley's case, it appears that barely-admitted non-URM students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-quality institutions and thus faced similar long-run outcomes.”

Higher-AI URM applicants' increased enrollment at selective and less-selective campuses was likely a result of their now being rejected from the more-selective UC campuses.

“likely as a result of their now being rejected from the more-selective UC campuses”

Some non-URM applicants' likelihood of admission to more-selective universities likely increased in order to maintain class sizes despite the decline in URM enrollment.

“Some non-URM applicants' likelihood of admission to more-selective universities likely increased in order to maintain class sizes despite the decline in URM enrollment.”

UC's affirmative action policies provided admissions advantages to URM applicants that augmented campuses' standard admissions protocol.

“UC's affirmative action policies provided admissions advantages to URM applicants that augmented campuses' standard admissions protocol, which required that 50 percent of students be admitted solely based on their”

The increasing application and yield rates, lower admissions rate, and stronger academic preparedness of both applicant and admitted pools indicate a university system steadily increasing in reputation and selectivity throughout the 1990s.

“Taken together, the increasing application and yield rates, lower admissions rate, and stronger academic preparedness of both the applicant and admitted pools indicate a university system steadily increasing in reputation and selectivity throughout the 1990s.”

Affirmative action is unlikely to be Pareto efficient.

“While affirmative action is unlikely to be Pareto efficient, two pieces of evidence favor its Kaldor-Hicks efficiency, which in this case requires (to a first-order approximation) that the benefit of more-selective university enrollment is greater for the URM enrollees targeted by affirmative action than for the non-URM students who would have enrolled in their place.”

This cascade explains why the proportion of each campus's URM applicants who enroll at that campus only declines at the three more-selective campuses.

“This cascade explains why the proportion of each campus's URM applicants who enroll at that campus only declines at the three more-selective campuses.”

UC's school-specific outreach programs after 1998 wound down after 2001 with little evidence of success in increasing URM application rates.

“Starting in 1998, UC implemented costly school-specific outreach programs to increase enrollment from majority-URM high schools and communities, but those programs wound down after 2001 with little evidence of success in even increasing URM application rates (Atkinson and Pelfrey, 2004; UCOP, 2003).”

• cites Atkinson and Pelfrey, 2004Not checked — no full text of the source
• cites UCOP, 2003Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

These findings are inconsistent with the university 'Mismatch Hypothesis'.

“These findings are inconsistent with the university”

• Also stated in: § Abstract · plain

  “A series of online appendices to this paper discuss the limitations of that previous research and reconcile their analysis with this study's baseline findings, which are inconsistent with widespread”

UC's affirmative action provided substantial long-run wage returns to Hispanic students.

“this suggests that while UC's affirmative action provided substantial long-run wage returns to Hispanic students”

Assuming coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes, Prop 209 implies a decline in the number of high-earning URM Californians by over 700 (1,700).

“Assuming that these coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes, this implies a decline in the number of high-earning URM Californians by over 700 (1,700).”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The difference-in-difference coefficients reflect a decline in URM labor market outcomes.

The overall decline in STEM attainment appears driven by students who exit these UC campuses following Prop 209.

“The overall decline in STEM attainment thus appears driven by students who exit these UC campuses following Prop 209.”

The previous section shows little evidence that expanding on-the-margin non-URM students' access to UC Berkeley provides economic benefits to those students.

“Second, the previous section shows little evidence that expanding onthe-margin non-URM students' access to UC Berkeley provides economic benefits to those students.”

The baseline estimates are highly insensitive to alternative model specifications.

“These results show that the baseline estimates are highly insensitive to alternative model specifications.”

The presented estimates are reduced-form, averaging over many URM students who were likely unimpacted by the Prop 209 policy change, which means that they likely substantially underestimate the effect of Prop 209 on students whose enrollment was shifted by UC's policy change.

“The presented estimates are reduced-form, averaging over many URM students who were likely unimpacted by the Prop 209 policy change, which means that they likely substantially underestimate the effect of Prop 209 on students whose enrollment was shifted by UC's policy change.”

The absence of a clearly unimpacted comparison group challenges the use of the difference-in-difference research design to distinguish non-URM student effects from ancillary economic trends.

“the absence of a clearly unimpacted comparison group challenges the use of the difference-in-difference research design to distinguish non-URM student effects from ancillary economic trends.”

The degree attainment of students targeted by affirmative action was relatively less sensitive to enrollment change.

“This suggests that the degree attainment of students targeted by affirmative action was relatively less sensitive to enrollment change.”

UC's selectivity and the high wages earned by its graduates imply that its policies may meaningfully impact the composition of California's high-earning workers.

“its selectivity and the high wages earned by its graduates imply that its policies may meaningfully impact the composition of California's high-earning workers.”

Prop 209 caused a decline in the number of such workers among UC applicants by 3 (6) percent.

“implying that Prop 209 caused a decline in the number of such workers among UC applicants by 3 (6) percent.”

There is little reason to treat white and Asian applicants as having been differently-treated by Prop 209, conditional on prior academic opportunities and preparation as measured by the components of AI.

“I conclude that there is little reason to treat white and Asian applicants as having been differently-treated by Prop 209, conditional on prior academic opportunities and preparation as measured by the components of AI.”

If these estimated returns are externally valid for non-URM students who crowded into more-selective UC campuses following Prop 209, non-URM students faced minimal costs from UC's affirmative action policy.

“If these estimated returns are externally valid for the non-URM students who crowded into more-selective UC campuses following Prop 209, this implies that non-URM students faced minimal costs from UC's affirmative action policy.”

On-the-margin non-URM students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-value institutions on average.

“However, those students would have otherwise enrolled at similar-value institutions on average”

The estimates omit labor market outcomes for (endogenously-selected) non-Californian and self-employed workers.

“The estimates also omit labor market outcomes for (endogenously-selected) non-Californian and self-employed workers.”

Selectivity differences between public research universities are at best a second-order determinant of URM students' persistence and performance in STEM courses, providing little support for the STEM Mismatch Hypothesis in this context.

“These findings suggest that selectivity differences between public research universities are at best a second-order determinant of URM students' persistence and performance in STEM courses, providing little support for the STEM Mismatch Hypothesis in this context.”

The baseline estimates' focus on UC applicants may yield an underestimate of the aggregate labor market effect of Prop 209 for high earners.

“This suggests that the baseline estimates' focus on UC applicants may yield an underestimate of the aggregate labor market effect of Prop 209 for high earners”

The primary potential threat to the presented research design is that Prop 209 may have dissuaded some URM high school graduates from sending an application to any UC campus, which could generate sample selection bias in the baseline difference-in-difference estimates.

“The primary potential threat to the presented research design is that Prop 209 may have dissuaded some URM high school graduates from sending an application to any UC campus -the main estimation sample -which could generate sample selection bias in the baseline difference-in-difference estimates”

Three pieces of evidence suggest that the return to more-selective university enrollment is relatively smaller for non-URM students who enroll at more-selective universities only absent affirmative action.

“three pieces of evidence suggest that the return to more-selective university enrollment is relatively smaller for the non-URM students who enroll at more-selective universities only absent affirmative action.”

These three sets of evidence provide suggestive support for the Kaldor-Hicks efficiency of California's pre-1998 affirmative action policies.

“These three sets of evidence provide suggestive support for the Kaldor-Hicks efficiency of California's pre-1998 affirmative action policies.”

There is substantial heterogeneity between and within disciplines in changes in URM UC applicants' fields of study.

“suggesting substantial heterogeneity between and within disciplines.”

The variation in URM wages after 1996 is more likely the result of ethnicity-specific wage dynamics in the California labor market than of early affirmative action phase-out.

“While the former may partly reflect some UC campuses' early affirmative action phase-out, this variation is more likely the result of ethnicity-specific wage dynamics in the California labor market.”

Students' STEM performance, persistence, and degree attainment appear largely explained by compositional differences in prior academic opportunity and preparedness, which are determined before they arrive at university.

“Instead, students' STEM performance, persistence, and degree attainment appear largely explained by compositional differences in prior academic opportunity and preparedness, which are determined before they arrive at university.”

UC does not educate enough of the California workforce for its admissions policies to meaningfully shift most moments of the state's aggregate wage distribution.

“While the University of California does not educate enough of the California workforce for its admissions policies to meaningfully shift most moments of the state's aggregate wage distribution”

The estimates omit the impacts of Prop 209 on URM Californians dissuaded from UC application by Prop 209, who may also have previously benefited from UC affirmative action.

“They omit the impacts of Prop 209 on URM Californians dissuaded from UC application by Prop 209, who may also have previously benefited from UC affirmative action.”

No previous study had directly examined the impact of affirmative action on URM students' actual course performance and STEM course progression, instead focusing on overall grade point averages and major choice.

“However, no previous study has directly examined the impact of affirmative action on URM students' actual course performance and STEM course progression, instead focusing on overall grade point averages and major choice.”

• cites [70]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

UC's affirmative action's labor market benefits to Black Californians may have been small.

“its labor market benefits to Black Californians may have been small.”

Assuming that the presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities, the wage effect of more-selective university enrollment for students impacted by affirmative action is significantly larger than universities' average treatment effect.

“Assuming that the presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities, this suggests that the wage effect of more-selective university enrollment for the students impacted by affirmative action is significantly larger than universities' average treatment effect.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The presented value-added statistics either approximate or relatively overestimate the average difference in treatment effects of enrolling at those universities.

The difference-in-difference research design cannot separately identify the impact of Prop 209 on non-URM UC applicants, some of whom may have benefited from the policy change by enrolling at more-selective universities.

“The difference-in-difference research design discussed above cannot separately identify the impact of Prop 209 on non-URM UC applicants, some of whom may have benefited from the policy change as a result of enrolling at more-selective universities.”

Race-based affirmative action decreases non-URM student enrollment for each net additional URM student that it causes to enroll.

“Race-based affirmative action decreases non-URM student enrollment for each net additional URM student that it causes to enroll.”

Differential NSC non-reporting by URM applicants is unlikely to explain the observed degree attainment patterns.

“As a result, differential NSC non-reporting by URM applicants is unlikely to explain the observed degree attainment patterns.”

Ending UC's affirmative action program did not lead to an increase in Asian UC applicants' enrollment at more-selective and selective UC campuses.

“Ending UC's affirmative action program did not lead to an increase in Asian UC applicants' enrollment at those campuses.”

The models do not control for family income or other measures of pre-college opportunity likely correlated with URM status.

“these models do not control for family income or other measures of pre-college opportunity likely correlated with URM status.”

Since those factors remained part of UC admissions, it is unsurprising that the presented models still identify advantages for URM applicants despite Prop 209.

“Since those factors remained part of UC admissions, it is unsurprising that the presented models still identify advantages for URM applicants despite Prop 209.”

The six-year graduation and STEM major choice estimates presented in Panel A of Table 3 are robust when restricted to NSC records only or to NSC records augmented by only UCSC degrees.

“The six-year graduation and STEM major choice estimates presented in Panel A of Table 3 are robust when restricted to NSC records only or to NSC records augmented by only UCSC degrees”

Some 1990s NSC records are incomplete.

“Some 1990s NSC records are incomplete”

Presented value-added statistics remain somewhat biased by positive selection into more-selective universities, suggesting they relatively overestimate differences between universities.

“there is reason to believe that the presented value-added statistics remain somewhat biased by positive selection into more-selective universities, suggesting that they relatively overestimate differences between universities.”

Since UC enrollment declined after Prop 209, augmenting incomplete NSC records with UC records could bias estimates of the impact of Prop 209 on degree attainment toward 0.

“Since UC enrollment declined after Prop 209, this could bias estimates of the impact of Prop 209 on degree attainment toward 0.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: UC enrollment declined after Prop 209.