Affirmative action and university fit: evidence from Proposition 209

Matching is much more important in accounting for the graduation gains of students in the bottom of the academic preparedness distribution.

“First, we find that matching is much more important in accounting for the graduation gains of students in the bottom of the academic preparedness distribution”

The remaining 30-45% of minority graduation gains is attributed to the residual category of university response.

“Finally, we attribute the remaining 30-45% of the minority graduation gains to the residual category of university response.”

Heterogeneity in graduation rates across universities is particularly large for those at the bottom of the distribution.

“Table 4 also makes clear that heterogeneity in graduation rates across universities is particularly large for those at the bottom of the distribution.”

Pre-Proposition 209, academic index and graduation rates are systematically related to UC campus rankings, with more-selective campuses having better prepared students and higher graduation rates, for both minorities and whites.

“Focusing initially on the pre-Prop 209 tabulations, one sees that the academic index and graduation rates are systematically related to the rankings of UC campuses, with more-selective campuses having students that are better prepared and more likely to graduate.This is true for minorities and for whites.”

After Proposition 209, there was a decline in the number of under-represented minorities enrolled at one of the UC campuses.

“The student-level UCOP data we examine also reveal that after Prop 209 there was a decline in the number of under-represented minorities enrolled at one of the UC campus.”

After Proposition 209, the academic preparation of minority applicants, admits, enrollees, and graduates improved, both absolutely and relative to whites.

“However, after Prop 209 is implemented, the academic preparation of minority applicants, admits, enrollees, and graduates improved, both absolutely and relative to whites.”

Minorities had much lower academic index scores than whites at each stage of the college process both prior to and after Proposition 209.

“With respect to academic preparation as measured by the student's academic index, minorities had much lower scores at each stage of the college process than whites both prior to and after Prop 209 was implemented (Table 1).”

Under Method 2, the effect falls to 1.3 percentage points for minorities.

“Under Method 2, the effect falls to 1.3 percentage points for minorities, which is still substantial.”

The pool of minority enrollees became more diverse from a socioeconomic perspective after Proposition 209.

“Hence, the pool of minority enrollees actually became more diverse from a socioeconomic perspective.”

The largest share of the increase in minority graduation rates, 35-50%, is due to changes in student characteristics with Proposition 209.

“We find that the largest share of the increase in minority graduation rates, 35-50%, is due to the changes in student characteristics with Prop 209.”

Better matching can explain only 20% of the improvement in minority graduation rates within the UC system.

“We find that better matching can explain only 20% of the improvement in minority graduation rates within the UC system.”

The distribution of minority students entering the UC system shifted from more selective campuses (e.g., UC Berkeley and UCLA) toward less selective ones after Proposition 209.

“We also find that the distribution of minorities entering the UC system shifted from its more selective campuses (e.g., UC Berkeley and UCLA) towards its less selective ones.”

The rankings of campuses in terms of their graduation rate productivity differ across the academic index distribution.

“First, the rankings of campuses in terms of their graduation rate productivity differ across the academic index distribution.”

Post-Proposition 209 changes in student preparedness and graduation rates are not ordered according to campus selectivity.

“The changes in student preparedness and graduation rates post-Prop 209 are not ordered according to the selectivity of the various campuses (Table 2).”

As a fraction of the number of minority graduates from California's public high schools, URM enrollment rates fell from 4.6% to 3.6% after Proposition 209.

“As a fraction of the number of minority graduates from California's public high schools, 6 enrollment rates fell from 4.6% to 3.6%.”

Some of the UC campuses appear to have an absolute advantage or disadvantage in producing high graduation rates across the whole distribution of student preparedness.

“Second, some of the UC campuses appear to have an absolute advantage (or disadvantage) in producing high graduation rates across the whole distribution of student preparedness.”

UC Davis is predicted to produce the lowest, or near the lowest, graduation rates at each level of academic preparation.

“whereas, UC Davis is predicted to the lowest, or near the lowest, graduation rates at each level of academic preparation.”

The gap between the highest and lowest graduation rates across schools for students at the 10th percentile of the academic index was over 16 percentage points.

“The gap between the highest and lowest graduation rates across schools for students at the 10th percentile of the academic index was over 16 percentage points.”

After Proposition 209, under-represented minority graduation rates conditional on enrolling increased by 4.4 percentage points, from a base rate of 62.4%.

“After Prop 209, graduation rates increased by 4.4%.”

• Also stated in: § As documented in · plain

  “Indeed, the data reveal that under-represented minorities were 4.4 percentage points more likely to graduate in the period after Prop 209 that the period before.”

• Also stated in: § 2 Graduation Patterns in the UC System Before and After Prop 209 · plain

  “Conditional on enrolling, minority graduation rates increased by 4.4% off a base rate of 62.4% post-Prop 209.”

The correlation coefficient for the institution-specific intercepts and the average minority academic index is -0.72.

“In contrast, the correlation coefficient for the institution-specific intercepts and the average minority academic index is -0.72.”

The relative magnitudes of the campus-specific intercepts and slopes across the UC campuses are correlated with their degree of selectivity.

“The relative magnitudes of φ * 0j s and φ * 1j s across the UC campuses also are correlated with their degree of selectivity.”

UC Santa Barbara is predicted to produce among the highest, if not the highest, minority graduation rates at each part of the academic index distribution.

“For example, UC Santa Barbara is predicted to produce among the highest, if not the highest, minority graduation rates at each part of the academic index distribution”

The drop in minorities admitted to any campus in the post period roughly corresponds to the bottom 7% of the Dale and Krueger index distribution in the pre-period.

“we throw out preperiod individuals in the bottom 7% of the J-1 k=1 φ * 4k a ikt distribution, which roughly corresponds to the drop in minorities admitted to any campus in the post period.”

Most of the rest of the campuses exhibit an absolute advantage in minority graduations for some parts of the preparation distribution but not others.

“At the same time, most of the rest of the campuses exhibit an absolute advantage in minority graduations for some parts of the preparation distribution but not others.”

The correlation coefficient for the institution-specific slopes with the average minority academic index in the pre-period is 0.72.

“The correlation coefficient for the institution-specific slopes with the average minority academic index in the pre-period is 0.72”

Under Method 1, the direct effect of enrolling in the post-Prop 209 period on graduation rates was 2 percentage points for minorities and 1.5 percentage points for whites.

“We find that the direct effect of enrolling in the post-Prop 209 period on graduation rates was 2 percentage points for minorities and 1.5 percentage points for whites.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Under Method 1, the pre-Prop 209 admits had the same distribution of unobservables as the post-Prop 209 admits.

Under AR2, minority graduation rates would improve by 2.8% (a 1.5 percentage point increase) for those in the second decile.

“The magnitudes of the gains in minority graduation rates from the re-allocation under AR2 are modest, but higher for the bottom half of the academic preparation distribution, where minority graduation rates would improve by 2.8% (a 1.5 percentage point increase) for those in the second decile.”

Under assignment rule AR1, the allocation of underrepresented minorities across UC campuses would change dramatically.

“Under AR1, the allocation of minorities would change dramatically [columns under (A)].”

AR3 reallocated many more students to UC Santa Barbara than AR2.

“re-allocated many more of them to UC Santa Barbara”

The AR2 allocation achieves 19.3% of the maximum attainable gains associated with AR1.

“The AR2 allocation achieves 19.3% of the maximum attainable gains associated with AR1 [row (A)].”

The AR2 allocation achieves up to 27.4% of the possible gains for the bottom part of the preparedness distribution.

“It achieves more of the maximum possible gains for the bottom part of the preparedness distribution, accounting for up to 27.4% of the possible gains.”

Under the white assignment rules, the gains in graduation rates would have been especially large for those at the bottom of the distribution, achieving up to 39.3% of the maximum possible gains.

“Moreover, under the white assignment rules, the gains in graduation rates would have been especially large for those at the bottom of the distribution, achieving up to 39.3% of the maximum possible gains.”

The characteristics of the minorities that enrolled within the UC system after Prop 209 did change.

“Note that this is a counterfactual evaluation, since we know that the characteristics of the minorities that enrolled within the UC system after Prop 209 did change [Table 1].”

The post-Proposition 209 assignment rule for whites (AR3) moved students out of the most-selective UC campuses more dramatically than AR2.

“the post-Prop 209 assignment rule for whites even more dramatically moved students out of the most-selective campuses than did AR2”

UC Santa Barbara had a sizable share (14.3%) of underrepresented minorities enrolled in the UC system prior to Proposition 209.

“At the same time, UC Santa Barbara had a sizable share (14.3%) of the minorities enrolled in the UC system prior to Prop 209.”

Under the white post-Prop 209 assignment rules, minorities would have attained over 26% of the maximum possible gain from re-allocation of students across campuses.

“Under the white post-Prop 209 assignment rules, minorities would have attained over 26% of the maximum possible gain from re-allocation of students across campuses.”

Almost one-half of underrepresented minorities were enrolled at the three most selective UC campuses (UC Berkeley, UCLA, and UC San Diego) prior to Proposition 209.

“Almost one-half of minorities were at the three most selective campuses, UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego, with UC Berkeley and UCLA having the two largest shares.”

Under AR2, pre-Proposition 209 UC enrollees would have been reallocated from the three most selective UC campuses (UC Berkeley, UCLA, and UC San Diego) to the less-selective ones (UC Riverside and UC Santa Cruz).

“While obviously less dramatic than the re-allocation associated with AR1, we predict that the pre-Prop 209 UC enrollees would have been reallocated from the three mostselective UC campuses (UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego) to the less-selective ones (UC Riverside and UC Santa Cruz).”

The university response accounts for between 29.5% and 45.5% of the graduation rate increase, depending on the method used.

“Our estimates imply that this university response accounts for between 29.5% and 45.5% of the graduation rate increase, depending on the Method used.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of unobservables for enrollees is the same in the pre- and post-Proposition 209 periods.

Prior to Proposition 209, underrepresented minorities were disproportionately enrolled at the more-selective UC campuses.

“Prior to Prop 209 minorities were disproportionately enrolled at the more-selective UC campuses.”

Minorities in the bottom half of the academic index distribution would experience an improvement in graduation rates of almost 10% if students were re-allocated according to AR1.

“In particular, minorities in the bottom half of the academic index distribution would experience an improvement in graduation rates of almost 10% if students were re-allocated according to AR1.”

The annual earnings of African American men who completed their BA degree is 47.1% higher than for those who attended but did not graduate from college.

“Based on data from the 2008-2010 waves of the American Community Survey (ACS), we estimate that the annual earnings of African American men who completed their BA degree is 47.1% higher than for those who attended but did not graduate from college.”

Of the 4.4 percentage point increase in minority graduation rates, 20.5% can be explained by better matching of students to UC campuses based on students' preparation and campus graduation production functions.

“Of this increase, 20.5% can be explained by better matching of students to the UC campuses based on the students' preparation and campus graduation production functions.”

The overall graduation rate increased by 4.4 percentage points for underrepresented minority enrollees after Proposition 209.

“Recall from Table 1 that the overall graduation rate increased by 4.4 percentage points for minority enrollees.”

UC Berkeley and UCLA had the two largest shares of underrepresented minority enrollment prior to Proposition 209.

“Almost one-half of minorities were at the three most selective campuses, UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego, with UC Berkeley and UCLA having the two largest shares.”

Under AR2, only a modest share of underrepresented minorities would be reallocated to UC Santa Barbara.

“In contrast to the re-allocation under AR1, only a modest share of the minorities would be re-allocated to UC Santa Barbara under AR2, the UC campus that we found had an absolute advantage for graduating most minority students.”

Proposition 209 may have induced a significant selection effect on minority enrollments within the UC system that would provide an alternative explanation to mismatch for why minority graduation rates improved.

“That is, Prop 209 may have induced a significant selection effect on minority enrollments within the UC system that would provide an alternative explanation to mismatch for why minority graduation rates improved.”

For the predictions of the mismatch hypothesis to hold, lower-quality (less selective) universities must have an absolute advantage, not just a comparative advantage, in graduating less academically prepared minority students.

“As the above discussion makes clear, the mismatch hypothesis requires lower-quality (less selective) universities to have an absolute advantage, and not just a comparative advantage, in graduating less academically prepared minority students.”

The improvement in academic preparation of minority students enrolled at UC after Proposition 209 suggests that changes in minority student selectivity with respect to academic preparation may have accounted for some, if not all, of the improved graduation rates of minorities after Proposition 209.

“This improvement in academic preparation of the minority students that enrolled at a UC campus after Prop 209 suggests that changes in minority student selectivity with respect to academic preparation noted in the Introduction may have accounted for some, if not all, of the improved graduation rates of minorities after the implementation of Prop 209.”

Based on the selectivity of the UC campuses to which a minority was admitted, it will appear as though minorities pre-Prop 209 were stronger than those post-Prop 209 because more minorities were admitted to the more-selective UC campuses based on their race/ethnicity prior to Prop 209 than after it was implemented.

“Based on the selectivity of the UC campuses to which a minority was admitted measured by a it , it will appear as though minorities pre-Prop 209 were stronger than those post-Prop 209 because more minorities were admitted to the more-selective UC campuses based on their race/ethnicity prior to Prop 209 than after it was implemented.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Proposition 209 required that race or ethnicity could no longer be used as a criterion for admission at any UC campus.

Failure to control for the full set of factors will likely result in biased estimates of the effects of attending more-selective colleges on the outcomes of interest.

“As has been noted in the literature, 20 failure to control for the full set of factors will likely to result in biased estimates of the effects of attending more-selective colleges on the outcomes of interest.”

• cites Black, Daniel, and Smith (2001)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Dale and Krueger (2002) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Black and Smith (2004) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Potential negative effects on minorities from the removal of affirmative action may be over-stated because universities may respond to decreased diversity by investing more in minorities and other students from disadvantaged backgrounds who do enroll.

“That such a large share of the gains in graduation result from responses to UC campuses suggests that potential negative effects on minorities from the removal of affirmative action may be over-stated in one important respect: universities may respond to decreased diversity by investing more in the minorities and other students from disadvantaged backgrounds who do enroll.”

The probability that a minority applicant with a given set of credentials was admitted to a UC campus, especially highly selective ones, was likely to have changed with the implementation of Prop 209.

“As a result, the probability that a minority applicant with a given set of credentials was admitted to a UC campus, especially highly selective ones, was likely to have changed with the implementation of Prop 209.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Proposition 209 required that race or ethnicity could no longer be used as a criterion for admission at any UC campus.

Universities did indeed respond to Proposition 209 by focusing more resources on the retention of their enrolled students, increasing their graduation rates.

“Below, we present some anecdotal evidence that suggest that universities did indeed respond to Prop 209 by focusing more resources on the retention of their enrolled students, increasing their graduation rates.”

Matching effects would have been even larger had minorities been allocated to universities in the same way whites were allocated conditional on academic preparation.

“moreover, it would have been even larger had minorities been allocated to universities in the same way whites were allocated conditional on academic preparation.”

The study uses a modified version of the Dale and Krueger (2002) method to control for student qualifications beyond those measured by high school GPA and test scores.

“We use the information on the UC campuses to which students were admitted, and the quality of those UC campuses, to implement a modified version of the method used in Dale and Krueger (2002) to control for student qualifications beyond those measured by high school GPA and test scores.”

• cites Dale and Krueger (2002) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Prop 209 did lead to a more efficient sorting of minority students within the UC system.

“Using data before and after an affirmative action ban, we found evidence that Prop 209 did lead to a more efficient sorting of minority students within the UC system.”

The effects of Prop 209 on sorting were relatively small.

“However, the effects were relatively small and we can say little about what happened to those that did not attend a UC school as a result of Prop 209.”

UC Santa Barbara appeared to have an absolute advantage in converting minority enrollments into graduations for most students.

“Recall that UC Santa Barbara appeared to have an absolute advantage in converting minority enrollments into graduations for most students.”

Given large differences in academic preparation due to differences in the family backgrounds of students and the quality of the primary and secondary schools they attended, there is little scope for dramatic shifts in graduation outcomes by resorting of students across campuses.

“Given large differences in academic preparation due to differences in the family backgrounds of students and the quality of the primary and secondary schools they attended, there is little scope for dramatic shifts in graduation outcomes by resorting of students across campuses.”

The two scenarios (Methods 1 and 2) used to estimate the university response are likely to bound the true effect.

“We estimated this effect under two scenarios (Methods 1 and 2) that are likely to bound the true effect.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of unobservables for enrollees is the same in the pre- and post-Proposition 209 periods.

UC Santa Barbara is the most productive UC campus for producing graduation rates for students of most levels of academic preparation.

“UC Santa Barbara, the most productive campus for producing graduation rates for students of most levels of academic preparation.”

The sizes of these gains suggest there are limits to what can be achieved via better matching.

“At the same time, the sizes of these gains suggest there are limits to what can be achieved via better matching, an issue to which we return below.”

A companion paper (Arcidiacono, Aucejo, and Hotz, 2012) shows that mismatch effects are much larger when looking at persistence in STEM fields and in time to graduation.

“Further, while matching effects are small when comparing five-year graduation rates, a companion paper (Arcidiacono, Aucejo, and Hotz, 2012) shows that mismatch effects are much larger when looking at persistence in STEM fields and in time to graduation.”

• cites Arcidiacono, Aucejo, and Hotz, 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The remainder of the increase in graduation rates is due to changes in the selectivity of the academic preparation and backgrounds of minorities that enrolled after Proposition 209.

“It follows that the remainder of the increase in graduation rates is due to changes the selectivity in the academic preparation and backgrounds of minorities that enrolled after Prop 209.”

Better matching of students to campuses based on academic preparation produces the largest graduation rate gains for those students in the bottom part of the distribution of academic preparation.

“That being said, our results indicate that better matching of students to campuses based on academic preparation does produce the largest graduation rate gains for those students in the bottom part of the distribution of academic preparation.”

We can say little about what happened to those that did not attend a UC school as a result of Prop 209.

“we can say little about what happened to those that did not attend a UC school as a result of Prop 209.”

The magnitude of the potential detrimental effects of affirmative action bans may be overstated by not taking these responses into account.

“our results suggest that the magnitude of the potential detrimental effects of affirmative action bans may be overstated by not taking these responses into account.”

The imposition of an affirmative action ban may have induced a response by universities in their efforts to keep students from dropping out and completing their studies.

“Possibly our most intriguing finding is that the imposition of an affirmative action ban may have induced a response by universities in their efforts to keep students from dropping out and completing their studies.”

UC campuses did undertake efforts to provide more resources to help retain and facilitate higher graduation rates of students who enrolled after Prop 209.

“As we noted in Section 3, the campuses did undertake such efforts”

Our findings are suggestive that the efforts undertaken by campuses had a positive effect on minority, and non-minority, graduation rates.

“our findings are suggestive that they had a positive effect on minority, and non-minority, graduation rates.”

These results are consistent with campuses within the UC system responding to Prop 209 by providing more resources to help retain and facilitate higher graduation rates of those students who did enroll after the ban went into effect.

“Complementing the anecdotal evidence given in Section 3, these results are consistent with campuses within the UC system responding to Prop 209 by providing more resources to help retain and facilitate higher graduation rates of those students who did enroll after the ban went into effect.”