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The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels

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Heckman, James J, LaFontaine, Paul A·2010·Review of Economics and Statistics

DOI 10.1162/rest.2010.12366PMC PMC2900934

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Abstract

This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures, (b) it peaked in the early 1970s, (c) majority-minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years, (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations, (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums, and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps.

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Authors: Heckman, J. J., & LaFontaine, P. A.
Affiliations: University College Dublin (IE)
American Bar Association (US)
ORCID: Heckman, James J
Venue: Review of Economics and Statistics
Publisher: MIT Press - Journals
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 92
Issue: 2
Pages: 244-262
ISSN: 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
1530-9142
DOI: 10.1162/rest.2010.12366
PMC: PMC2900934
OpenAlex: W2140410834
Cited by: 568
References: 31
Citations by year: 2026: 8 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 50 · 2013: 48 · 2012: 44
FWCI: 107.34
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
doi.org
Locations: The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Research Repository UCD (University College Dublin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (P01-HD31921)
American Bar Foundation
University College Dublin
National Institutes of Health (NIH-R01)
National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P01-HD31921)
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD043411, P01HD031921, R01HD054702)
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (P01HD31921)
Topics: Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
Social Sciences › Education › Educational Outcomes and Influences
Keywords: high school graduation rates, immigrant students, college attendance, college wage premium, educational attainment, United States

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels

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