The DOI matches its Crossref record; 52 of the 52 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Simulation of Present-Day and Future Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Conditions in CCSM4
Open accessAbstract
The representation of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground and their projected twenty-first century trends is assessed in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). The combined impact of advances in CLM and a better Arctic climate simulation, especially for air temperature, improve the permafrost simulation in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. Present-day continuous plus discontinuous permafrost extent is comparable to that observed [12.5 × 106 versus (11.8–14.6) × 106 km2], but active-layer thickness (ALT) is generally too thick and deep ground (>15 m) temperatures are too warm in CCSM4. Present-day seasonally frozen ground area is well simulated (47.5 × 106 versus 48.1 × 106 km2). ALT and deep ground temperatures are much better simulated in offline CLM4 (i.e., forced with observed climate), which indicates that the remaining climate biases, particularly excessive high-latitude snowfall biases, degrade the CCSM4 permafrost simulation. Near-surface permafrost (NSP) and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) area are projected to decline substantially during the twenty-first century [representative concentration projections (RCPs); RCP8.5: NSP by 9.0 × 106 km2, 72%, SFG by 7.1 × 106, 15%; RCP2.6: NSP by 4.1 × 106, 33%, SFG by 2.1 × 106, 4%]. The permafrost degradation rate is slower (2000–50) than in CCSM3 by ~35% because of the improved soil physics. Under the low RCP2.6 emissions pathway, permafrost state stabilizes by 2100, suggesting that permafrost related feedbacks could be minimized if greenhouse emissions could be reduced. The trajectory of permafrost degradation is affected by CCSM4 climate biases. In simulations with this climate bias ameliorated, permafrost degradation in RCP8.5 is lower by ~29%. Further reductions of Arctic climate biases will increase the reliability of permafrost projections and feedback studies in earth system models.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Xie, P., & Arkin, P. A. (1997) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:gpayma>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 4,307
Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1181 · Cited by 3,822
Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991
Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., & Nemani, R. R. (1997) · Nature · doi:10.1038/386698a0 · Cited by 3,442
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C., Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M., et al. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli4083.1 · Cited by 3,133
Self-citationThe Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)
Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M., Blackmon, M. L., Bonan, G. B., Bretherton, C. S., Carton, J. A., Chang, P., Doney, S. C., Hack, J. J., Henderson, T. B., et al. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3761.1 · Cited by 2,251
Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle
Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., Canadell, J. G., Euskirchen, E., Field, C. B., Goryachkin, S. V., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P. M., Lee, H., et al. (2008) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/b580807 · Cited by 1,642
Increasing River Discharge to the Arctic Ocean
Peterson, B. J., Holmes, R. M., McClelland, J. W., Vörösmarty, C. J., Lammers, R. B., Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, I. A., & Rahmstorf, S. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1077445 · Cited by 1,505
Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions
Hinzman, L. D., Bettez, N. D., Bolton, W. R., Chapin, F. S., Dyurgerov, M. B., Fastie, C. L., Griffith, B., Hollister, R. D., Hope, A., Huntington, H. P., et al. (2005) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5352-2 · Cited by 1,422
Present‐day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow
Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Randerson, J. T., & Rasch, P. J. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd008003 · Cited by 1,360
Cited by
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., et al. (2013) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1 · Cited by 2,686
Self-citationMethane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World
Dean, J. F., Middelburg, J. J., Röckmann, T., Aerts, R., Blauw, L. G., Egger, M., Jetten, M. S. M., de Jong, A. E. E., Meisel, O. H., Rasigraf, O., et al. (2018) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2017rg000559 · Cited by 630
McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115 · Cited by 553
Self-citationKoven, C. D., Riley, W. J., & Stern, A. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00228.1 · Cited by 447
Kurylyk, B. L., & Watanabe, K. (2013) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.07.016 · Cited by 431
Metadata
- Authors
- Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., & Swenson, S. C.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2012-03-28
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2207-2225
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2001356302
- Cited by
- 278
- References
- 52
- FWCI
- 7.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Simulation of Present-Day and Future Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Conditions in CCSM4. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00334.1
- The paper
- Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., & Swenson, S. C. (2012). Simulation of Present-Day and Future Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Conditions in CCSM4. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00334.1
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
