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Cited by 101Climate variability and modelsAtmospheric aerosols and cloudsClimate Change and Geoengineering

Interhemispheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Tropical Precipitation Shifts during the Late Twentieth Century

Allen, Robert J., Evan, Amato T., Booth, Ben B. B.·2015·Journal of Climate
DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0148.1
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Abstract

Through the latter half of the twentieth century, meridional shifts in tropical precipitation have been associated with severe droughts. Although linked to a variety of causes, the origin of these shifts remains elusive. Here, it is shown that they are unlikely to arise from internal variability of the climate system alone, as simulated by coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Similar to previous work, the authors find that anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols are the dominant drivers of simulated twentieth-century tropical precipitation shifts. Models that include the cloud-albedo and lifetime aerosol indirect effects yield significantly larger shifts than models that lack aerosol indirect effects and also reproduce most of the southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. However, all models significantly underestimate the magnitude of the observed shifts in the Atlantic sector, unless driven by observed SSTs. Mechanistically, tropical precipitation shifts are driven by interhemispheric sea surface temperature variations, which are associated with hemispherically asymmetric changes in low-latitude surface pressure, winds, and low clouds, as well as the strength, location, and cross-equatorial energy transport of the Hadley cells. Models with a larger hemispheric aerosol radiative forcing gradient yield larger hemispheric temperature contrasts and, in turn, larger meridional precipitation shifts. The authors conclude that aerosols are likely the dominant driver of the observed southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. Aerosols are also significant drivers of the Atlantic shifts, although one cannot rule out a contribution from natural variability to account for the magnitude of the observed shifts.

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Crossref · 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0148.1

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  • The clustering of extreme annual low stand values occurring during and following the Hrafnkatla episode may suggest a different, more persistent tropical hydroclimate response following prolonged volcanic emissions, as was the case during the 20th century which was dominated by anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

    “The low flow following these short-lived high-latitude eruptions is of short duration (i.e., the year after the eruption), and therefore, the clustering of extreme annual low stand values occurring during and following the Hrafnkatla episode may suggest a different, more persistent tropical hydroclimate response following prolonged volcanic emissions as was the case during the 20th century which w”

    From Decadal-to-centennial increases of volcanic aerosols from Iceland challenge the concept of a Medieval Quiet Period (2024) · cites this paper as [76]

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Authors
Allen, R. J., Evan, A. T., & Booth, B. B. B.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Riverside (US)
  • Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
  • Met Office (GB)
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Published
2015-10-13
Volume
28
Issue
20
Pages
8219-8246
ISSN
  • 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0148.1
OpenAlex
W2137176096
Cited by
101
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 2
FWCI
7.10
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords
aerosol radiative forcing, anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, aerosol indirect effect, cloud albedo effect, sea surface temperature, Hadley circulation, low-level clouds, twentieth-century climate change

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