Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria

Gleick, Peter H.

doi:10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1

Cited by 942Transboundary Water Resource ManagementMiddle East Politics and SocietyWater resources management and optimization

Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria

Gleick, Peter H.·2014·Weather, Climate, and Society

DOI 10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1

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Abstract

Abstract The devastating civil war that began in Syria in March 2011 is the result of complex interrelated factors. The focus of the conflict is regime change, but the triggers include a broad set of religious and sociopolitical factors, the erosion of the economic health of the country, a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant region, and challenges associated with climate variability and change and the availability and use of freshwater. As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. There is a long history of conflicts over water in these regions because of the natural water scarcity, the early development of irrigated agriculture, and complex religious and ethnic diversity. In recent years, there has been an increase in incidences of water-related violence around the world at the subnational level attributable to the role that water plays in development disputes and economic activities. Because conflicts are rarely, if ever, attributable to single causes, conflict analysis and concomitant efforts at reducing the risks of conflict must consider a multitude of complex relationships and contributing factors. This paper assesses the complicated connections between water and conflict in Syria, looks more broadly at future climate-related risks for water systems, and offers some water management strategies for reducing those risks.

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A prolonged drought in the east and northeast linked to climate change forced pastoralists and farmers to abandon their land, sell their animals, and trek to the cities in the western region of Syria.
“There, a prolonged drought in the east and northeast linked to climate change forced pastoralists and farmers to abandon their land, sell their animals, and trek to the cities in the western region of Syria.”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [3]
In 2010-2011, it is estimated that approximately one million people migrated to urban centers in western Syria, including the seat of the Assad government in Damascus.
“In 2010–2011, it is estimated that approximately one million people migrated to these urban centers, including the seat of the Assad government in Damascus [3, 77].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [3]
Water scarcity and its related challenges are reportedly the key drivers of conflict situations amongst various communities.
“Additionally, water scarcity and its related challenges are reportedly the key drivers of conflict situations amongst various communities (Gleick, 2014).”
From Psychological effects of water scarcity on community members: a case study of Lephalale municipality, Limpopo province, South Africa (2025) · cites this paper as Gleick, 2014
Water scarcity contributes to conflicts among communities.
“More previous literature report that water scarcity contributes to conflicts amongst communities (Bulled, 2017; Gleick, 2014; Smith, 2017).”
From Psychological effects of water scarcity on community members: a case study of Lephalale municipality, Limpopo province, South Africa (2025) · cites this paper as Gleick, 2014
Pervasive ecological degradation, poor policy response to water and food insecurity, and ongoing tensions between rural and urban community members have arguably all contributed to civil unrest and ongoing conflict in Syria.
“Pervasive ecological degradation, poor policy response to water and food insecurity, and ongoing tensions between rural and urban community members, have arguably all contributed to civil unrest and ongoing conflict in Syria [90].”
From Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions (2018) · cites this paper as [90]

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Authors: Gleick, P. H.
Affiliations: Pacific Institute (US)
Corresponding author: Gleick, Peter H.
ORCID: Gleick, Peter H.
Venue: Weather, Climate, and Society
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Published: 2014-07-01
Volume: 6
Issue: 3
Pages: 331-340
ISSN: 1948-8327 (ISSN-L)
1948-8335
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1
OpenAlex: W2024341641
Cited by: 942
References: 20
Citations by year: 2026: 66 · 2025: 87 · 2024: 56 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 74 · 2021: 139 · 2020: 176 · 2019: 75 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 8
FWCI: 148.15
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Weather Climate and Society (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Middle East Politics and Society
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Water resources management and optimization
Keywords: Syrian civil war, water conflicts, drought, climate change, freshwater scarcity, causes of conflict, climate variability, water management, Middle East and North Africa

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Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria

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