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Cited by 499Transboundary Water Resource ManagementEnvironmental and Biological Research in Conflict ZonesMiddle East Politics and Society

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

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Selby, Jan, Dahi, Omar S., Fröhlich, Christiane, Hulme, Mike·2017·Political Geography
DOI 10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007
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Abstract

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria's descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria's pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.

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  • Although there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria.

    “Although there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria [76–78].”

    From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [76]

    The Introduction reports that many commentators and studies advance a Syria–climate conflict thesis, but it does not endorse their conclusion. It states that the thesis’s three underlying steps are seriously flawed and concludes that there is no convincing evidence climate change contributed to the onset of Syria’s civil war. The indexed copy provides section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Research works printed but not linked: 10

  1. Ababsa, Myriam (2011). Agrarian counter-reform in Syria (2000-2010) In Raymond Hinnebusch et al, Agriculture and Reform in Syria (pp. 83e107). Fife: St Andrews Centre for Syrian Studies.
  2. Ababsa, Myriam (2015). The end of a world: Drought and agrarian transformation in northeast Syria (2007e2010). In Raymond Hinnebusch, & Tina Zintl (Eds.), Political economy and international relations: Vol. 1. Syria from reform to revolt (pp. 199e222). Syracuse: Syracuse University Press.
  3. al-Hindi, Atieh (2011). Syria's agricultural sector: situation, role, challenges and prospects, In Raymond Hinnebusch et al, Agriculture and Reform in Syria (pp. 15e55). Fife: University of St Andrew Centre for Syrian Studies.
  4. De Schutter, Olivier (2010). "Two to three million Syrians face food insecurity," ac- cording to UN food expert. press release, 7 September; available at: http://www. srfood.org/en/mission-to-syria-four-years-of-drought (Accessed 19 July 2016).
  5. Field, Christopher, et al. (Eds.). (2014). Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  6. Hulme, Mike (2001). Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973e1998. Global Environmental Change, 11(1), 19e29.
  7. Leybourne, Marina (1998). The adaptability of Syrian Bedouin production systems. In John Clarke, & Daniel Noin (Eds.), Population and environment in arid regions (pp. 193e207). Paris: UNESCO.
  8. Sternberg, Troy (2013). Chinese drought, wheat, and the Egyptian uprising: How a localized hazard became globalized. In Caitlin Werrell, & Francesco Femia (Eds.), The Arab spring and climate change (pp. 7e14). Washington DC: Center for American Progress, Stimson Center, and Center for Climate and Security. available at: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2013/ 02/28/54579/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change/ (Accessed 22 December 2015).
  9. Welzer, Harald (2012). Climate wars: What people will be killed for in the 21st century. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  10. Westlake, Michael (2003). The economics of strategic crops. In Ciro Firilllo, & Jacques Vercueil (Eds.), Syrian agriculture at the crossroads (pp. 137e162). Rome: UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

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Authors
Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Sussex (GB)
  • Hampshire College (US)
  • Universität Hamburg (DE)
  • King's College London (GB)
Corresponding author
Selby, Jan
ORCID
Venue
Political Geography
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2017-09
Volume
60
Pages
232-244
ISSN
0962-6298 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007
OpenAlex
W2592283015
Cited by
499
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 37 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 65 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 98 · 2020: 75 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 8
FWCI
110.28
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Political Geography (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Sussex Research Online (University of Sussex) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (cc-by)
Funders
  • King's College London
  • University of Sussex
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Middle East Politics and Society
Keywords
Syrian civil war, anthropogenic climate change, drought, climate-induced migration, threat multiplier, climate and conflict, climate policy, Syria

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