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Cited by 564Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationTransboundary Water Resource ManagementClimate Change Policy and Economics

Climate, conflict and forced migration

Open access
Abel, Guy J., Brottrager, Michael, Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus, Muttarak, Raya·2019·Global Environmental Change
DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003
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Abstract

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.

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Crossref · 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003

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65 of 65 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Although there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria.

    “Although there is some disagreement, the preponderance of the literature suggests that climate change has contributed to civil strife in Syria [76–78].”

    From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [78]

    The literature review describes a pathway by which climate change and drought may have contributed to political unrest in Syria, while acknowledging a study that disputes the evidence. It also says there is little statistical evidence for the Syria-specific link; it does not establish that the preponderance of the literature supports it. The supplied copy gives a section label but no page number. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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  • Few empirical studies seek to evaluate empirical evidence for the entire climate-migration-conflict link.

    “Few empirical studies seek to evaluate empirical evidence for the entire climate-migration-conflict link (although see[88][89][90][91].”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [90]

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Beine, M., Jeusette, L., 2018. A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration (No. 18-05), CREA Discussion Paper Series. Center for Research in Economic Analysis. University of Luxembourg. · DOI
  2. Borderon, M., Sakdapolrak, P., Muttarak, R., Kebede, E., Pagogna, R., Sporer, E., 2018. A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidence on Migration Influenced by Environmental Change in Africa (IIASA Working Paper No. WP-18-003). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  3. Marshall, M.G., Gurr, T.R., Jaggers, K., 2017. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristicsand Transitions. pp. 1800-2016.

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Authors
Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Muttarak, R.
Affiliations
  • Shanghai University (CN)
  • Vienna University of Economics and Business (AT)
  • University of East Anglia (GB)
Corresponding author
Muttarak, Raya
ORCID
Venue
Global Environmental Change
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2019-01
Volume
54
Pages
239-249
ISSN
0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003
OpenAlex
W2901225972
Cited by
564
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 45 · 2025: 78 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 86 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 84 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 1 · 2013: 1
FWCI
133.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) (submittedVersion)
  • ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
  • UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
  • Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion)
  • WU Research (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
National Science Foundation of China Research Fund for International Scientists (41650110483)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords
climate change, armed conflict, forced migration, asylum seeking, refugee flows, drought severity, climate and conflict, Syrian civil war, 2015 refugee crisis, political transition, West Asia

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