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Cited by 388

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 44 of the 44 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome

de Rouen, Karl R, Sobek, David·2004·Journal of Peace Research
DOI 10.1177/0022343304043771
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Abstract

Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. These methods allow for the examination of each outcome and its respective duration dynamics. Logit tells us what shapes the probability of each outcome, and hazard analysis identifies the factors that determine the time to each outcome. The models examine the years 1944 to 1997 and find that state capacity is involved in outcome and duration in at least two important ways. An effective state bureaucracy undermines the rebels, but a strong government army does not necessarily enhance the government cause. UN intervention decreases the probability of both government and rebel victory, while increasing the likelihood of a treaty or truce. In addition, rebels have a decreased probability of winning ethnic wars. Forest cover hinders rebels and treaties, while mountain cover tends to help rebels. African wars are harder for governments to win. African wars and ethnic wars are longer.

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Metadata

Authors
de Rouen, K. R., & Sobek, D.
Venue
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2004-05-01
Volume
41
Issue
3
Pages
303-320
ISSN
  • 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-3578
DOI
10.1177/0022343304043771
OpenAlex
W2120272366
Cited by
388
References
44
FWCI
37.99
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1177/0022343304043771
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de Rouen, K. R., & Sobek, D. (2004). The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Peace Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343304043771

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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