Today’s Older Adults Are Cognitively Fitter Than Older Adults Were 20 Years Ago, but When and How They Decline Is No Different Than in the Past
Open accessAbstract
History-graded increases in older adults’ levels of cognitive performance are well documented, but little is known about historical shifts in within-person change: cognitive decline and onset of decline. We combined harmonized perceptual-motor speed data from independent samples recruited in 1990 and 2010 to obtain 2,008 age-matched longitudinal observations ( M = 78 years, 50% women) from 228 participants in the Berlin Aging Study (BASE) and 583 participants in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II). We used nonlinear growth models that orthogonalized within- and between-person age effects and controlled for retest effects. At age 78, the later-born BASE-II cohort substantially outperformed the earlier-born BASE cohort ( d = 1.20; 25 years of age difference). Age trajectories, however, were parallel, and there was no evidence of cohort differences in the amount or rate of decline and the onset of decline. Cognitive functioning has shifted to higher levels, but cognitive decline in old age appears to proceed similarly as it did two decades ago.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods
Davidian, M. (2003) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2003.s288 · Cited by 13,820 · see citing works
Cognitive reserve in ageing and Alzheimer's disease
Stern, Y. (2012) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(12)70191-6 · Cited by 3,557 · cited 3× · see citing works
“Expectations about a postponed onset of cognitive decline among later-born cohorts can be derived from the cognitive-reserve hypothesis (Stern, 2012).”
BackgroundWolf-Maier, K. (2003) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.289.18.2363 · Cited by 1,718 · see citing works
Life Span Theory in Developmental Psychology
Baltes, P. B., Lindenberger, U., & Staudinger, U. M. (2007) · Handbook of Child Psychology · doi:10.1002/9780470147658.chpsy0111 · Cited by 1,240 · see citing works
Self-citationEducation and cognitive functioning across the life span
Lövdén, M., Fratiglioni, L., Glymour, M. M., Lindenberger, U., & Tucker-Drob, E. M. (2020) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1177/1529100620920576 · Cited by 1,224 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Association Between Midlife Blood Pressure Levels and Late-Life Cognitive Function
Launer, L. J. (1995) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1995.03530230032026 · Cited by 944 · see citing works
Mental Exercise and Mental Aging: Evaluating the Validity of the “Use It or Lose It” Hypothesis
Salthouse, T. A. (2006) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1745-6916.2006.00005.x · Cited by 679 · see citing works
A Systematic Review of Propensity Score Methods in the Social Sciences
Thoemmes, F. J., & Kim, E. S. (2011) · Multivariate Behavioral Research · doi:10.1080/00273171.2011.540475 · Cited by 577 · see citing works
Casserly, I., & Topol, E. J. (2004) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(04)15900-x · Cited by 560 · see citing works
Lindenberger, U., & Baltes, P. B. (1997) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037//0882-7974.12.3.410 · Cited by 542 · see citing works
Self-citationSearching for justice: The discovery of IQ gains over time.
Flynn, J. R. (1999) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.54.1.5 · Cited by 503 · see citing works
Lindenberger, U., & Baltes, P. B. (1997) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.12.3.410 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Flynn effect: A meta-analysis.
Trahan, L. H., Stuebing, K. K., Fletcher, J. M., & Hiscock, M. (2014) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/a0037173 · Cited by 364 · see citing works
One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909–2013)
Pietschnig, J., & Voracek, M. (2015) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691615577701 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Cohort Profile: The Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II)†
Bertram, L., Böckenhoff, A., Demuth, I., Düzel, S., Eckardt, R., Li, S., Lindenberger, U., Pawelec, G., Siedler, T., Wagner, G. G., et al. (2013) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyt018 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
Self-citationFlynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused
Bratsberg, B., & Rogeberg, O. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1718793115 · Cited by 199 · see citing works
Adult age and digit symbol substitution performance: a meta-analysis
Hoyer, W. J., Stawski, R. S., Wasylyshyn, C., & Verhaeghen, P. (2004) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.19.1.211 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Cohort differences in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the Seattle Longitudinal Study.
Gerstorf, D., Ram, N., Hoppmann, C., Willis, S. L., & Schaie, K. W. (2011) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0023426 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Self-citationGerstorf, D., Hülür, G., Drewelies, J., Eibich, P., Düzel, S., Demuth, I., Ghisletta, P., Steinhagen‐Thiessen, E., Wagner, G. G., & Lindenberger, U. (2015) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000016 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Self-citationEducational attainment does not influence brain aging
Nyberg, L. H., Magnussen, F., Lundquist, A., Baaré, W. F. C., David Bartrés-faz, A., Bertram, L., Boraxbekk, C., Brandmaier, A. M., Drevon, C. A., Ebmeier, K. P., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2101644118 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Self-citationCohort Differences in Trajectories of Cognitive Aging
Finkel, D., Reynolds, C. A., McArdle, J. J., & Pedersen, N. L. (2007) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences · doi:10.1093/geronb/62.5.p286 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Inconvenient Truths About Human Longevity
Olshansky, S. J., & Carnes, B. A. (2019) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glz098 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Drewelies, J., Huxhold, O., & Gerstorf, D. (2019) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000423 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationCohort Effects in Age-Associated Cognitive Trajectories
Dodge, H. H., Zhu, J., Lee, C.-W., Chang, C., & Ganguli, M. (2013) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glt181 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Karlsson, P., Thorvaldsson, V., Skoog, I. G., Gudmundsson, P., & Johansson, B. E. A. (2015) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0038643 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Tucker–Drob, E. M., Reynolds, C. A., Finkel, D., & Pedersen, N. L. (2013) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0032468 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Not your parents' test scores: Cohort reduces psychometric aging effects.
Zelinski, E. M., & Kennison, R. F. (2007) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.22.3.546 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Adult development and aging in historical context.
Gerstorf, D., Hülür, G., Drewelies, J., Willis, S. L., Schaie, K. W., & Ram, N. (2020) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/amp0000596 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Self-citationNeuhauser, H. K., Diederichs, C., Boeing, H., Felix, S. B., Jünger, C., Lorbeer, R., Meisinger, C., Peters, A., Völzke, H., Weikert, C., et al. (2016) · Deutsches Ärzteblatt international · doi:10.3238/arztebl.2016.0809 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
König, M., Drewelies, J., Norman, K., Spira, D., Buchmann, N., Hülür, G., Eibich, P., Wagner, G. G., Lindenberger, U., Steinhagen‐Thiessen, E., et al. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0191699 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationBetter Cognition in New Birth Cohorts of 70 Year Olds, But Greater Decline Thereafter
Thorvaldsson, V., Karlsson, P., Skoog, J., Skoog, I. G., & Johansson, B. E. A. (2016) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbw125 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Crimmins, E. M., Zhang, Y. S., Kim, J. K., & Levine, M. E. (2019) · The Journals of Gerontology: Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glz075 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Cohort effects in verbal memory function and practice effects: a population-based study
Dodge, H. H., Zhu, J. Y., Hughes, T. F., Snitz, B. E., Chang, C.-C. H., Jacobsen, E. P., & Ganguli, M. (2016) · International Psychogeriatrics · doi:10.1017/s1041610216001551 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
On the use of growth models to study normal cognitive aging
Ghisletta, P., Mason, F., von Oertzen, T., Hertzog, C. K., Nilsson, L., & Lindenberger, U. (2019) · International Journal of Behavioral Development · doi:10.1177/0165025419851576 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationHessel, P., Kinge, J. M., Skirbekk, V., & Staudinger, U. M. (2018) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2017-209979 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Munukka, M., Koivunen, K., von Bonsdorff, M. B., Sipilä, S., Portegijs, E., Ruoppila, I., & Rantanen, T. (2020) · Aging Clinical and Experimental Research · doi:10.1007/s40520-020-01702-0 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Secular trends in cognitive trajectories of diverse older adults
Vonk, J. M. J., Rentería, M. A., Avila, J. F., Schupf, N., Noble, J. M., Mayeux, R. P., Brickman, A. M., & Manly, J. J. (2019) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.06.4944 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Cohort Differences in Cognitive Aging in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam
Brăilean, A., Huisman, M. A., Prince, M. J., Prina, M. A., Deeg, D. J. H., & Comijs, H. C. (2016) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbw129 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Thorvaldsson, V., Skoog, I. G., & Johansson, B. E. A. (2020) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000449 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Temporal Trends in the Level and Decline of Cognition and Disability in an Elderly Population
Grasset, L., Jacqmin‐Gadda, H., Proust‐Lima, C., Pérès, K., Amieva, H., Dartigues, J., & Helmer, C. (2018) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwy118 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Grimm K. J., 2016, Growth modeling: Structural equation and multilevel modeling approaches
Cited by
Still being checked.
- Authors
- Gerstorf, D., Ram, N., Drewelies, J., Duezel, S., Eibich, P., Steinhagen-Thiessen, E., Liebig, S., Goebel, J., Demuth, I., Villringer, A., Wagner, G. G., Lindenberger, U., & Ghisletta, P.
- Affiliations
- German Institute for Economic Research (DE)
- Departments of Psychology and Communication, Stanford University
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (DE)
- Department of Endocrinology and Metabolic Medicine at the Charite–Universitätsmedizin Berlin
- Berlin Institute of Health at Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin (DE)
- Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences (DE)
- Max Planck Institute for Human Development (DE)
- University of Geneva (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Gerstorf, Denis
- ORCID
- Venue
- Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2022-10-25
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 22-34
- ISSN
- 0956-7976 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9280
- OpenAlex
- W4307220620
- Semantic Scholar
- adea152a58b96a78690727107d5fdd8275a66044
- Cited by
- 26
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 6
- FWCI
- 6.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Psychological Science (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- edoc Publication server (Humboldt University of Berlin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- bundesministerium für bildung und forschung (#01UW0808; #01GL1716A; and #01GL1716B, #16SV5536K, #16SV5537, #16SV5538, #16SV5837)
- bundesministerium für familie, senioren, frauen und jugend (1992–1998, 314-1722-102/9 & 314-1722-102/9a)
- Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences’ Research Group on Aging and Societal Development (1994 –1999)
- bundesministerium für forschung und technologie (1989 –1991, 13 TA 011 & 13 TA 011/A)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Cognitive Abilities and Testing
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Keywords
- cognitive aging, cognitive decline, cohort differences, older adults
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aging, Cognition, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review