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Using multiple genetic variants as instrumental variables for modifiable risk factors
Open accessAbstract
Mendelian randomisation analyses use genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate causal effects of modifiable risk factors on disease outcomes. Genetic variants typically explain a small proportion of the variability in risk factors; hence Mendelian randomisation analyses can require large sample sizes. However, an increasing number of genetic variants have been found to be robustly associated with disease-related outcomes in genome-wide association studies. Use of multiple instruments can improve the precision of IV estimates, and also permit examination of underlying IV assumptions. We discuss the use of multiple genetic variants in Mendelian randomisation analyses with continuous outcome variables where all relationships are assumed to be linear. We describe possible violations of IV assumptions, and how multiple instrument analyses can be used to identify them. We present an example using four adiposity-associated genetic variants as IVs for the causal effect of fat mass on bone density, using data on 5509 children enrolled in the ALSPAC birth cohort study. We also use simulation studies to examine the effect of different sets of IVs on precision and bias. When each instrument independently explains variability in the risk factor, use of multiple instruments increases the precision of IV estimates. However, inclusion of weak instruments could increase finite sample bias. Missing data on multiple genetic variants can diminish the available sample size, compared with single instrument analyses. In simulations with additive genotype-risk factor effects, IV estimates using a weighted allele score had similar properties to estimates using multiple instruments. Under the correct conditions, multiple instrument analyses are a promising approach for Mendelian randomisation studies. Further research is required into multiple imputation methods to address missing data issues in IV estimation.
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“All three of these SNPs have previously been shown to be strong instruments for MR analysis as measured by F-statistics > 10 [8,18]”
From Associations of genetically determined iron status across the phenome: A mendelian randomization study (2019) · cites this paper as [18]
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“Interpretation of results from MR studies relies on four conditions.12,24”
From Mendelian randomization (2022) · cites this paper as [24]
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“[10] F statistic < 10 indicating that it is a weak instrumental variable and was excluded.”
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“34”
Yang, T., Xiong, T., Wang, L., Luo, L., Mei, H., Yang, J., Yao, X., Xiong, Y., Zhang, X., & Huang, C. (2025) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000042593 · Cited by 1
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Liu, R., Huang, Y., Jiang, M., Xu, F., Pei, Q., Ma, J., Li, Y., Shen, S., Zhang, B., Guo, X., et al. (2025) · Mechanobiology in Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.mbm.2025.100137 · Cited by 1
“23,24 We dropped SNPs that were missing in the outcome, and 34,844 SNPs that were significantly associated with metabolites were finally retained.”
Chong, Y., Li, X., Peng, Z., Wang, Z., Fu, D., Huang, Z. L., & Chong, T. (2025) · Annals of Human Genetics · doi:10.1111/ahg.70002 · Cited by 1
“…moderate allele frequency were excluded (Özsoy et al. 2023); the exposure and outcome sites were coordinated through the Harmonise function (Ergün et al. 2024); instrumental variables with an F > 10 were calculated and retained (Burgess and Thompson 2011; Palmer et al. 2012; Pierce et al. 2011).”
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Smoking can increase the risk of osteoarthritis in European women
Mao, B., Li, H., Zhong, J., Li, X., & Sang, H. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-09546-2 · Cited by 1
“A value of F 10 was considered to have a weak instrument bias thus removed 29,30 .”
Yang, Z., Xiu, X., Liu, F., Li, J., Tang, Z., Zhong, W., Xu, S., Ma, S., Wang, Y., Zuo, R., et al. (2025) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000043198 · Cited by 1
“[18] At the same time, SNPs with echo structures should be excluded when coordinating exposures and endings using the harmonise_data function.”
Mao, W., & Wu, L. (2025) · Journal of Pain Research · doi:10.2147/jpr.s516682 · Cited by 1
“23 Furthermore, as the genotype of the organism is established before the disease begins and is not influenced by how it developed, undesirable defects caused by potential confounders or reverse causal relationships can be reduced to a minimum.”
Xue, J., Zhou, N., Li, Q., Wang, R., Li, Y., Zhu, H., & Lv, C. (2025) · Shock · doi:10.1097/shk.0000000000002633 · Cited by 1
Sheng, J., Zhang, Y., Dong, L., & Yao, J. (2025) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000042496 · Cited by 1
“20]”
Fatima, T., Överdahl, C., & Maglio, C. (2025) · Journal of Scleroderma and Related Disorders · doi:10.1177/23971983251352341 · Cited by 1
“36”
Dib, M., Meena, D., Yarmolinsky, J., Azzo, J. D., Salman, O., Tavolinejad, H., Gan, S., Beeche, C., Pourmussa, B., Gill, D., et al. (2025) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.124.037596 · Cited by 1
“27”
Cao, D., Huang, X., Luo, L., Liu, Y., Wen, J., Zeng, L., Han, J., Li, J., & Li, Y. (2025) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.70019 · Cited by 1
Risk relationship between osteoporosis and plasma proteins
Chen, C., Zeng, Q., Ye, Q., & Jin, F. (2025) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000044105 · Cited by 1
“…using the F test, calculated as , where R 2 represents the extent to which IV explains exposure, N represents the sample size of the GWAS study of exposure factors, and k represents the number of SNPs. [24] Screening SNPs with F > 10 to quantify IV strength and indicate a strong correlation.”
Cheng, J., Dong, X. S., Yang, Y., Qin, X., Zhou, X., Fu, Y., Wang, J., Wang, Y., & Zhang, D. (2025) · BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth · doi:10.1186/s12884-025-07860-1 · Cited by 1
Maimaiti, A., Pan, L., Liu, Y., Huang, M., Ding, W., Yang, W., Sun, K., Wang, Y., & Wang, Z. (2025) · Cerebrovascular Diseases · doi:10.1159/000546508 · Cited by 1
“Moreover, a study by Palmer et al. [65] investigated the genetic determinants of drug response using MR analysis, providing insights into personalized medicine approaches.”
Dissecting the shared genetic architecture between anxiety and cognitive function
Yang, M., Yu, Z., Wei, Z., Wang, J., Wang, N., & Zhang, L. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120306 · Cited by 1
Yang, J., Liu, Z., Li, X., Qiu, Y., Liu, Q., Huang, X., & Lian, L. (2025) · Brain and Behavior · doi:10.1002/brb3.70809 · Cited by 1
Liu, S., Zheng, W., Chen, H., Tu, M., Zhong, Y., Lou, Y., Wen, Y., & Chen, L. (2025) · Food Science & Nutrition · doi:10.1002/fsn3.70965 · Cited by 1
“…for univariable analyses was calculated using the formula , N represents the number of participants, EAF represents the effect allele frequency, and β is the estimated effect of the SNP to assess its ability to uniquely predict the outcome (Gill et al. 2019; Levin et al. 2020; Palmer et al. 2012).”
Chen, L., Hu, X., Wu, M., Zeng, Z., & Wang, Y. (2025) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000044619 · Cited by 1
Jin, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, H., Xiaoli, J., & Wang, J. (2025) · Discover Oncology · doi:10.1007/s12672-025-03590-0 · Cited by 1
“To ensure strong instruments, only SNPs with an F statistic greater than 10 were included to reduce weak instrument bias [28].”
Xiao, Z., Liu, X., Tang, W., Lv, Y., Zhang, T., Zhan, X., Sun, Q., Omindo, W. W., Wang, Q., Zhang, R., et al. (2025) · Human Genomics · doi:10.1186/s40246-025-00829-3 · Cited by 1
“Accordingly, SNPs with F-statistics below 10 were excluded from further analysis to mitigate the risk of weak instrument bias [27].”
Shi, X., Tang, Y., Zhang, Y., Yu, C., Ma, Y., Yan, F., & Liu, T. (2025) · Biomedicines · doi:10.3390/biomedicines13102433 · Cited by 1
“To screen for genetic variants suitable for a MR analysis and ensure the validity of IVs, we applied stringent selection criteria and rigorous quality-control procedures; details are provided in the Supplementary Note S1 [25–29].”
Wang, M., Liu, B., Ren, J., Yuan, Q., Cai, J., Ye, D., Qian, Y., Mao, Y., & Li, Z. (2025) · Clinical Rheumatology · doi:10.1007/s10067-025-07726-z · Cited by 1
“The F -sta- tistic was calculated using the following formulas: where “ R 2 ” was the variance in protein concentration explained by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs),“MAF” was the minor allele frequency, “ k ” was the number of IVs, and “ n ” was the sample size of the GWAS [20, 21].”
Liu, L., Liu, B., Liao, M., Zeng, B., Qin, L., & Li, M. (2025) · Metabolomics · doi:10.1007/s11306-025-02357-6 · Cited by 1
Zhang, D., Li, L., Zhang, Y., Wang, P., Lei, L., Hu, Y., Zhou, C., Yang, S.-S., Liu, W., & Huang, X. (2025) · Journal of Translational Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12967-025-07241-4 · Cited by 1
Educational Attainment as the Primary Socioeconomic Determinant of Heart Failure
Ye, M., Gu, Z., Guo, S., Xu, H., Dong, Y., Zhu, W., & Sun, J. (2025) · JACC Advances · doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2025.102268 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Palmer, T. M., Lawlor, D. A., Harbord, R. M., Sheehan, N. A., Tobias, J. H., Timpson, N. J., Smith, G. D., & Sterne, J. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Leicester (GB)
- School of Clinical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Corresponding author
- Palmer, Tom M
- ORCID
- Venue
- Statistical Methods in Medical Research
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2011-01-07
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 223-242
- ISSN
- 0962-2802 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0334
- PMC
- PMC3917707
- OpenAlex
- W2151096860
- Cited by
- 1,289
- References
- 76
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 240 · 2024: 394 · 2023: 164 · 2022: 83 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 22 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 27 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 11.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Statistical Methods in Medical Research (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (G0600705, 092731)
- University of Bristol (G0600705)
- Medical Research Council (G0600705)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/E00234X/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetics and Physical Performance
- Keywords
- Mendelian randomization, modifiable risk factors, weak instruments, finite-sample bias, fat mass, bone mineral density, children, causal effect estimation, continuous outcomes
- MeSH terms
- Female, Genotype, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, Genetic Variation, Mendelian Randomization Analysis
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