Cited by 198Misinformation and Its ImpactsElectoral Systems and Political ParticipationBenford’s Law and Fraud Detection

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The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud

Edelson, Jack, Alduncin, Alexander, Krewson, Christopher, Sieja, James A., Uscinski, Joseph E.·2017·Political Research Quarterly

DOI 10.1177/1065912917721061

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Abstract

Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.

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“Stop the Count!”—How Reporting Partial Election Results Fuels Beliefs in Election Fraud
Vaz, A., Ingendahl, M., Mata, A., & Alves, H. (2025) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09567976251355594
“Finally, research has also pointed to personality differences, suggesting that some people are predisposed to view events as the result of a conspiracy (Edelson et al., 2017; Enders et al., 2021).”
Preface
Uscinski, J. E. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.002.0005
Copyright Page
Uscinski, J. E. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.002.0003
Shouts and Whispers: The Gamson Hypothesis, Media Reliance, and Belief in 2020 Election Conspiracy Theories
Johnson, T. J., Kaye, B. K., & Park, C. S. (2025) · Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10776990251360688
“As it was back in 1796, politics is high stakes, and partisans still suspect the other side is engaging in dishonest practices to secure an election win (Edelson et al., 2017).”
Losing the Plot: Transportation as a Predictor of Engagement with Misinformation
Suresh, S., Walter, N., & Green, M. C. (2025) · Mass Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/15205436.2025.2547864
“…with their existing viewpoint of right-wing bad actors engaging in nefarious activities, affirming their idea that “the opposition is up to no good” (Edelson et al., 2017, p. 935)., In vocally expressing these perspectives and communicating animosity toward the out-group (e.g., Rousis et al.,…”
Influential
Do conspiracy-theory interventions rest on a mistake?
Colyvan, M., Smartt, T., & Tierney, H. (2025) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-025-05257-3
“And in social psychology, writers shuttle between frameworks within the same project (e.g., Edelson et al., 2017 and Miller et al., 2015 , p. 826).”
“Trump Won, Biden Cheated”: Economic Inequality Increases Online Support for Conspiracy Theories About the 2020 Presidential Election
Lu, Y. (2025) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-025-10073-z
“People who are dissatisfied with political institutions may resonate with the con - spiracy theories that frame government officials as malevolent actors (Abalakina‐ Paap et al. 1999; Edelson et al. 2017 ; Imhoff and Lamberty 2018; Juanchich et al. 2021; Miller et al. 2016 ).”
Do Individual Differences in Conspiratorial and Political Leanings Influence The Use of Inaccurate Information?
Rapp, D. N., Imundo, M. N., & Adler, R. M. (2019) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/978-1-64113-853-620251008
Identifying and characterizing ideologically homogeneous clusters on Twitter and Parler during the 2020 election
Verdear, D., Hemm, A., Tian, Z., Oud, S. E., Kübler, S., Funchion, J., Seelig, M. I., Diekman, A. B., Murthi, M. N., Premaratne, K., et al. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0338318
How poor sleep could fuel belief in conspiracy theories
Jolley, D., & Dinnick, I. (2025) · doi:10.64628/ab.n5xxq5krg
What Electoral Outcomes Foster Electoral Consent and Dissent?
Blais, A., Bol, D., & Plescia, C. (2026) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.11468 · Cited by 1
“These findings corroborate previous work showing that supporters of losing parties are more likely to question the integrity of the electoral process and to believe that there may have been fraud (Beaulieu, 2014; Edelson et al., 2017; Mochtak et al., 2021).”
Fragility of Losers' Consent: Political Institutions and PolarizationPreprint
Kasamatsu, S., & Kishishita, D. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6273018
Realistic threats escalating societal conflict: electoral distrust, strong leader support, and divided justice in South Korea’s 2024–2025 political crisis
Yu, Y., & Jung, T. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1808513 · Cited by 1
“In the U.S. context, conservative orientation predicts greater receptivity to conspiracy thinking (Enders and Smallpage, 2019), which in turn fosters fraud beliefs (Edelson et al., 2017; Enders et al., 2021).”
When Populists Win but Are Excluded From Power: Explaining Post‐Electoral Dynamics of Democratic Satisfaction
Partheymüller, J., & Kritzinger, S. (2026) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.11828
“…with this notion, supporters of populist parties have been found particularly likely to express doubts about electoral integrity more often than mainstream party supporters (Partheymüller et al., 2022) and to engage in conspiratorial motivated reasoning about electoral fraud (Edelson et al., 2017).”
Hacking Voters’ Trust in Democracy: Panel Evidence on Safeguarding Confidence in Election Integrity
Shandler, R., Ong, I., Leu, O., & DeMattee, A. J. (2026) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-026-10147-6 · Cited by 1
Conspiracy Mentality and Political Orientation across 26 countriesPreprint
Zimmer, F., & Imhoff, R. (2022) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Can a public information campaign increase trust in American elections?
Kousser, T. B., Hill, S. J., Malhotra, N. A., & Stein, R. M. (2026) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aec8703
Breeding conspiracy thinking? Investigating the longitudinal relationship between media use and conspiracy mindset
Strömbäck, J., & Broda, E. (2026) · Journal of Information Technology & Politics · doi:10.1080/19331681.2026.2731440
Laboratories of Electoral Democracies: What Have We Learned from a Quarter Century of Research on Voting and Elections in the American States?
Coll, J. A., Shino, E., & Smith, D. A. (2026) · State Politics & Policy Quarterly · doi:10.1017/spq.2026.10035
Apoio à democracia e desconfiança eleitoral: evidências do Brasil (2006–2022)1,2
Ricci, P., Borba, J., & Simoni, S. (2026) · Opinião Pública · doi:10.1590/1807-0191202632107

Authors: Edelson, J., Alduncin, A., Krewson, C., Sieja, J. A., & Uscinski, J. E.
Affiliations: University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA
St. Lawrence University (US)
University of Miami (US)
Corresponding author: Uscinski, Joseph E.
ORCID: Krewson, Christopher
Sieja, James A.
Uscinski, Joseph E.
Venue: Political Research Quarterly
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2017-07-31
Volume: 70
Issue: 4
Pages: 933-946
ISSN: 1065-9129 (ISSN-L)
1938-274X
DOI: 10.1177/1065912917721061
OpenAlex: W2739660896
Cited by: 198
References: 70
Citations by year: 2026: 12 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 38
FWCI: 39.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Political Research Quarterly (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
Keywords: conspiracy beliefs, motivated reasoning, party identification, voter ID laws, 2012 elections

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The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud

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