Cited by 198Misinformation and Its ImpactsElectoral Systems and Political ParticipationBenford’s Law and Fraud Detection

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The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud

Edelson, Jack, Alduncin, Alexander, Krewson, Christopher, Sieja, James A., Uscinski, Joseph E.·2017·Political Research Quarterly

DOI 10.1177/1065912917721061

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Abstract

Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.

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“Conspiracy Thinking (Edelson et al., 2017) Here are some ideas that some people agree with, and others disagree with.”
BackgroundInfluential
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Schnaudt, C. (2024) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfae027 · Cited by 13
“The Big Lie”: How Fact Checking Influences Support for Insurrection
Painter, D. L., & Fernandes, J. (2022) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/00027642221103179 · Cited by 13
“…’ s legitimacy than did Republican and pro-Trump participants, which aligns with research indicating partisans supporting election winners report higher legitimacy levels than do those supporting electoral losers (Anderson et al., 2007; Anderson & Guillory, 1997; Edelson et al., 2017; Keele, 2008).”
BackgroundResult
I Trends
Bordeleau, J. (2023) · International Political Science Abstracts · doi:10.1177/00208345231157664 · Cited by 12
“The “Big Lie” conspiracy theory—which posits that the 2020 US Presidential Election was ‘stolen’ and that Donald Trump is the rightful winner—is a great example of the utilization of conspiracy theories to account for political losses (Norris et al., 2020; Enders et al., 2022; Edelson et al., 2017).”
Politicization of a Pathogen: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of COVID ‐19 Responses in a Nationally Representative U.S. Sample
Relihan, D. P., Holman, E. A., Garfin, D. R., Ditto, P. H., & Silver, R. C. (2023) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12894 · Cited by 14
Election integrity across Europe: who thinks elections are held fairly and why?
Goldberg, A. C., & Plescia, C. (2024) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773924000055 · Cited by 15
Conspiratorial thinking in the Latino community on the 2020 election
Cortina, J., & Rottinghaus, B. (2022) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/20531680221083535 · Cited by 11
“In particular, older Latinos should be more likely to believe conspiracy theories if exposed to social media, consistent with other findings (Edelson et al., 2017).”
Result
Dilemmas of Distrust: Conspiracy Beliefs, Elite Rhetoric, and Motivated Reasoning
Radnitz, S. (2021) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129211034558 · Cited by 12
Explaining beliefs in electoral misinformation in the 2022 Brazilian election: The role of ideology, political trust, social media, and messaging apps
Rossini, P., Mont’Alverne, C., & Kalogeropoulos, A. (2023) · Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review · doi:10.37016/mr-2020-15 · Cited by 11
Can Elite Allegations of Election Fraud Demobilize Supporters?
Fraga, B. L., Peskowitz, Z., & Szewczyk, J. (2024) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-024-09952-8 · Cited by 10
Conspiracy Theories in U.S. History
Olmstead, K. S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0019 · Cited by 10
Determinant of fraudulent behavior in the Indonesian rural bank sector using the fraud hexagon perspective
Suryandari, N. N. A., Yadnyana, I. K., Ariyanto, D., & Erawati, N. M. A. (2023) · Banks and Bank Systems · doi:10.21511/bbs.18(4).2023.16 · Cited by 10
Who Believes in Fraud in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election? Election Denialism, Partisan Motivated Reasoning, and Affective Polarization
Cornejo, R. C. (2024) · Latin American Research Review · doi:10.1017/lar.2024.11 · Cited by 10
“Since evidence of electoral fraud is normally hidden and fraud is typically accomplished by the machinations of powerful groups, the lack of evidence demonstrates the fraud — it shows just how widespread and concealed it really is (Edelson et al. 2017).”
Influential
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Lewandowsky, S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0010 · Cited by 12
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Bozkurt, V., Dawes, G. D., Gülerce, H., & Westenbroek, P. (2021) · Istanbul University Press eBooks · doi:10.26650/b/ss49.2021.006 · Cited by 19
Techniques for Manipulating Public Opinion in the Online Space During an Election Campaign as a Hybrid Threat
Hajdúková, T. (2024) · Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies · doi:10.36941/ajis-2024-0002 · Cited by 9
“As (Becker, J. 2021), (Edelson et al, 2017) and (Ivan č ík, R., Andrassy.”
Conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding: Longitudinal effects of election conspiracy beliefs on criticism of democracy and support for authoritarianism during political contests
Thomas, E. F., O'Donnell, A. W., Osborne, D., Bird, L. H., Yip, L., Buonaiuto, E., Lizzio‐Wilson, M., Skitka, L. J., & Wenzel, M. (2025) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.13075 · Cited by 9
“Research on election conspiracy beliefs more specifically shows that while motivated partisan reasoning is a factor, general conspiracy thinking remains a significant predictor even when partisanship is controlled for (Edelson et al., 2017; Enders et al., 2021).”
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization?
Gaudette, J., Hill, S. J., Kousser, T. B., Lockhart, M., & Romero, M. (2025) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123424000681 · Cited by 10
Collective Narcissism and Perceptions of the (Il)legitimacy of the 2020 US Election
Federico, C. M., Farhart, C. E., Vitriol, J. A., & de Zavala, A. G. (2022) · The Forum · doi:10.1515/for-2022-2046 · Cited by 13
“…on conspiratorial theories about election fraud, which connects belief in the latter (on the right, in this case) to political loss (e.g., Albertson and Guiler 2020; Berlinski et al. 2021; Edelson et al. 2017; Enders et al. 2021; Miller, Farhart, and Saunders 2018; Uscinski and Parent 2014).”
Exclusionary Citizenship: Public Punitiveness and Support for Voting Restrictions
Chouhy, C., Lehmann, P. S., & Singer, A. J. (2022) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2022.2111324 · Cited by 11
“…about election fraud have been found to be, at least in part, a driver of support for voter ID legislation (e.g., Ansolabehere & Persily, 2008; Edelson et al., 2017; Kane, 2017), but these worries are themselves associated with anti-Black and antiimmigrant sentiments (Appleby & Federico,…”
Background
The Conspiratorial Style in Turkish Politics
Nefes, T. S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0026 · Cited by 9
The Psychology and Neuroscience of Partisanship
Harris, E., Pärnamets, P., Sternisko, A., Robertson, C. E., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108779104.005 · Cited by 11
Conspiracy Thinking, Tolerance, and Democracy
Smallpage, S. M. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0012 · Cited by 9
Effects of Conspiracy Thinking Style, Framing and Political Interest on Accuracy of Fake News Recognition by Social Media Users: Evidence from Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
Porshnev, A., Miltsov, A., Lokot, T., & Koltsova, O. Y. (2021) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77626-8_23 · Cited by 9
Research note: Explicit voter fraud conspiracy cues increase belief among co-partisans but have broader spillover effects on confidence in elections
Lyons, B. A., & Workman, K. (2022) · Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review · doi:10.37016/mr-2020-99 · Cited by 8
“Group-centric perceptions of electoral integrity are another consistent finding (Appleby & Federico, 2017; Edelson et al., 2017; Sances & Stewart, 2015; Wilson & Brewer, 2013).”
Background

Authors: Edelson, J., Alduncin, A., Krewson, C., Sieja, J. A., & Uscinski, J. E.
Affiliations: University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA
St. Lawrence University (US)
University of Miami (US)
Corresponding author: Uscinski, Joseph E.
ORCID: Krewson, Christopher
Sieja, James A.
Uscinski, Joseph E.
Venue: Political Research Quarterly
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2017-07-31
Volume: 70
Issue: 4
Pages: 933-946
ISSN: 1065-9129 (ISSN-L)
1938-274X
DOI: 10.1177/1065912917721061
OpenAlex: W2739660896
Cited by: 198
References: 70
Citations by year: 2026: 12 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 38
FWCI: 39.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Political Research Quarterly (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
Keywords: conspiracy beliefs, motivated reasoning, party identification, voter ID laws, 2012 elections

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The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud

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