Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures
Open accessAbstract
Many millions of people hold conspiracy theories; they believe that powerful people have worked together in order to withhold the truth about some important practice or some terrible event. A recent example is the belief, widespread in some parts of the world, that the attacks of 9/11 were carried out not by Al Qaeda, but by Israel or the United States. Those who subscribe to conspiracy theories may create serious risks, including risks of violence, and the existence of such theories raises significant challenges for policy and law. The first challenge is to understand the mechanisms by which conspiracy theories prosper; the second challenge is to understand how such theories might be undermined. Such theories typically spread as a result of identifiable cognitive blunders, operating in conjunction with informational and reputational influences. A distinctive feature of conspiracy theories is their self-sealing quality. Conspiracy theorists are not likely to be persuaded by an attempt to dispel their theories; they may even characterize that very attempt as further proof of the conspiracy. Because those who hold conspiracy theories typically suffer from a crippled epistemology, in accordance with which it is rational to hold such theories, the best response consists in cognitive infiltration of extremist groups. Various policy dilemmas, such as the question whether it is better for government to rebut conspiracy theories or to ignore them, are explored in this light.
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Different strategies for successful intervention may apply for people who hold strong anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs than those who do not hold strong beliefs.
“Similarly, different strategies for successful intervention may apply for people who hold strong anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs than those who do not hold strong beliefs [44].”
From The Effects of Anti-Vaccine Conspiracy Theories on Vaccination Intentions (2014) · cites this paper as [44]
Conspiracist ideation is typically immune to falsification because contradictory evidence can be accommodated by broadening the scope of the conspiracy.
“Conspiracist ideation is also typically immune to falsification because contradictory evidence (e.g., climate scientists being exonerated of accusations) can be accommodated by broadening the scope of the conspiracy (exonerations are a whitewash), often with considerable creativity [32].”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
Evidence against conspiracy theories is often construed as evidence for them, because the evidence is interpreted as arising from the conspiracy in question.
“evidence against conspiracy theories is often construed as evidence for them, because the evidence is interpreted as arising from the conspiracy in question”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
These general and robust findings help identify communicative means by which motivated reasoning can be attenuated or circumvented.
“These general and robust findings help identify communicative means by which the motivated reasoning can be attenuated or circumvented [5], [32], [38], [50].”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
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“Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, refer to claims that seek “to explain some event or practice by reference to the machinations of powerful people, who attempt to conceal their role” (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009, p. 205).”
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“Conspiracy theories can be distinguished from rumours by their ‘effort to explain some event or practice by reference to the machinations of powerful people, who attempt to conceal their role’ (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009, p. 205).”
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“Conspiracist ideation is, by definition, difficult to correct because any evidence contrary to the conspiracy is itself considered evidence of its existence (Bale, 2007; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“This bias may be heightened when individuals experience intense emotions triggered by catastrophic events, which in turn aid the dissemination of conspiracy theories that provide a justification for those affective states (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialPolitical Extremism Predicts Belief in Conspiracy Theories
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“Various authors noted that the crippled epistemology that characterizes political extremism is also inherent to conspiracy beliefs (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009; Swami et al., 2013).”
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“They believe that certain prominent communities are running the public while concealing their activities, like conspiracy theories about a Jewish plan to control the world [25, 26].”
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“Indeed , while some conspiracy theories are merely false, others are based on beliefs that are not only false but also harmful (Maibach, 2012; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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Barberá, P. (2020) · Social Media and Democracy · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.004 · Cited by 373 · see citing works
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“…many irrational beliefs exist, belief in conspiracy theories and belief in the supernatural are particularly prevalent among ordinary, nonpathological citizens, and are frequent topics of scientific research (Oliver & Wood, 2014; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009; Swami et al., 2013; Wiseman & Watt, 2006).”
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“Even so, the lens of psychopathology has been critiqued as being reductionist and purely descriptive, as it fails to consider the influence of political structures on conspiracist ideation (Gray, 2008; see also Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
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Bieber, F. (2020) · Nationalities Papers · doi:10.1017/nps.2020.35 · Cited by 328 · see citing works
“Conspiracy theories can undermine trust in democratic institutions and in extreme cases generate violence (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009), as religious rioting in India attests (Horowitz 2001, 74 – 77).”
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“Sunstein & Vermeule (2009) write that contrary to popular framings, belief in conspiracy theories does not imply mental illness, but is instead indicative of a “crippled epistemology” due in part to a limited number of information sources.”
BackgroundInfluentialDurably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI
Costello, T. H., Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adq1814 · Cited by 354 · see citing works
“Suchprevalenceis particularly concerning because conspiracy belief is often used as a paradigmatic example of resistance to evidence ( 8 – 10 ): There is little evidence of interventions that successfully debunk con-spiracies among people who already believe them ( 11 , 12 ).”
Climate Change Disinformation and How to Combat It
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“Contrary evidence is often reinterpreted as confirmatory evidence (152).”
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Conspiracy Theories and the People Who Believe Them
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“Conspiracy theories have specific characteristics, such as the belief that a hidden group of powerful individuals exerts control over some aspect of society (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009).”
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“Conspiracy theories explain political or historical events through references to “the machinations of powerful people” (Sunstein & Vermeule 2009, p. 205; see also Muirhead & Rosenblum 2019).”
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Mocanu, D., Rossi, L., Zhang, Q. F., Karsai, M., & Quattrociocchi, W. (2015) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2015.01.024 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
“nment, are more susceptible to false information. Conclusions Conspiracists generally tend to explain a signicant social or political aspect as a secret plot by powerful individuals or organizations [17] and their activity is proliferating over the web. This study provides a genuine outline of the online social dynami…”
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Craft, S., Ashley, S., & Maksl, A. (2017) · Communication and the Public · doi:10.1177/2057047317725539 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
“Some scholars include conspiracy theories as part of a broader domain of misinformation (Lewandowsky, Ecker, Seifert, Schwarz, & Cook, 2012; Miller et al., 2015) or a broader domain of false beliefs (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“More casual CTs (e.g., the “X-Files”), can be engaged with similar to any kind of fiction, suspending disbelief whilst being entertained (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
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Freeman, D., & Bentall, R. (2017) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-017-1354-4 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
The under-appreciated drive for sense-making
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“Particularly, the conviction that unorthodox theories/explanations are true, in the face of overwhelming contradictory evidence, and the presumption of deception are prominent features of conspiracist thinking (e.g., Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
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Edelson, J., Alduncin, A., Krewson, C., Sieja, J. A., & Uscinski, J. E. (2017) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912917721061 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
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“While scholars are waiting for more studies of climate change conspiracies specifically, they have suggested general strategies for undermining conspiracy theories to ensure public safety (for example, see Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
BackgroundCombating disinformation in a social media age
Shu, K., Bhattacharjee, A., Alatawi, F., Nazer, T. H., Ding, K., Karami, M., & Liu, H. (2020) · WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery · doi:10.1002/widm.1385 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
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Uscinski, J. E., Douglas, K. M., & Lewandowsky, S. (2016) · Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science · doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.328 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
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“…further investigation of the active social cognitive processes of ‘bricolage’ of CT beliefs (e.g., how far they follow the heuristics suggested by Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009) – since CT believers are not only choosy with the contents that they draw from official sources, but also with content…”
BackgroundThe Philosophy of Conspiracy Theories
Dentith, M. R. X. (2014) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9781137363169 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
“is to claim that typically such theorists are people who do not know much, and much of what they believe is wrong 2 (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009, p. 211).”
BackgroundIndividual difference factors and beliefs in medical and political conspiracy theories
Galliford, N., & Furnham, A. F. (2017) · Scandinavian Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/sjop.12382 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
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“The involvement of conspiratorial emotions and thoughts has implications for the design of debiasing and debunking messages that we take up later (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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Does the platform matter? Social media and COVID-19 conspiracy theory beliefs in 17 countries
Theocharis, Y., Cardenal, A. S., Jin, S., Aalberg, T., Hopmann, D. N., Strömbäck, J., Castro, L., Esser, F., Aelst, P. V., de Vreese, C. H., et al. (2021) · New Media & Society · doi:10.1177/14614448211045666 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
“While other definitions have also been offered, the attribution of the causes of some event to the machinations of powerful people attempting to conceal their role is the essence of many prominent and influential conspiracy theories (see, for example, Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009: 205).”
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Graeupner, D., & Coman, A. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2016.10.003 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
“On the one hand, they contribute to the burgeoning literature investigating the cognitive ingredients of conspiratorial thinking (Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, & Harvey, 2016; Prooijen & Acker, 2015; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009; Whitson & Galinsky, 2008).”
BackgroundMoulding, R., Nix-Carnell, S., Schnabel, A., Nedeljkovic, M., Burnside, E. E., Lentini, A., & Mehzabin, N. (2016) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2016.04.060 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Understanding Anti-Vaccination Attitudes in Social Media
Mitra, T., Counts, S., & Pennebaker, J. W. (2021) · Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media · doi:10.1609/icwsm.v10i1.14729 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
“Individuals in such close-knit groups typically end up adhering to their extreme positions, often fueling beliefs in false conspiracies and are particularly resistant to correction (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009).”
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“One known element of conspiratorial thinking is its “self-sealing” quality (Bale 2007; Keeley 1999; Sunstein and Vermeule 2009), whereby evidence against a conspiratorial belief is reinterpreted as evidence for that belief.”
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“…in conspiracy theories can be widespread: For instance, in 2004, 49% of New York city residents believed that the US government was complicit in the 9-11 terrorist strikes (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), and in 1991, 56% of US citizens believed in one of the JFK-conspiracy theories (Pipes, 1997).”
BackgroundWhen Inferring to a Conspiracy might be the Best Explanation
Dentith, M. R. X. (2016) · Social Epistemology · doi:10.1080/02691728.2016.1172362 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
‘I Am Not a Conspiracy Theorist’: Relational Identifications in the Dutch Conspiracy Milieu
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“Such scholars consider conspiracy theories to be the delusional ideas of paranoid and militant minds who, in their extremism, pose threats to the body politic (Aaronovitch, 2010; Barkun, 2006; Byford, 2011; Pipes, 1997; Robins and Post, 1997; Showalter, 1997; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
BackgroundTangherlini, T. R., Shahsavari, S., Shahbazi, B., Ebrahimzadeh, E., & Roychowdhury, V. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0233879 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
“Conspiracy theories and their factual counterpart, conspiracies, have long been studied by scholars from a broad range of disciplines, including political science [1][2][3][4], philosophy [5], psychology [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15], law [16], sociology [17][18], linguistics and language use [19][20], folklore…”
BackgroundRumor Has It: The Adoption of Unverified Information in Conflict Zones
Greenhill, K. M., & Oppenheim, B. (2017) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqx015 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Examining the monological nature of conspiracy theories
Sutton, R. M., & Douglas, K. M. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139565417.018 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Pytlik, N., Soll, D., & Mehl, S. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.568942 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
“As to possible clinical implications of our findings, we would like to point out again that believing in conspiracy theories per se is not a mental disorder (11, 12).”
Believing in Conspiracy Theories: Evidence from an Exploratory Analysis of Italian Survey Data
Mancosu, M., Vassallo, S., & Vezzoni, C. (2017) · South European Society & Politics · doi:10.1080/13608746.2017.1359894 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Organizational Conspiracy Beliefs: Implications for Leadership Styles and Employee Outcomes
van Prooijen, J., & de Vries, R. E. (2015) · Journal of Business and Psychology · doi:10.1007/s10869-015-9428-3 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Suspicion in the workplace: Organizational conspiracy theories and work‐related outcomes
Douglas, K. M., & Leite, A. C. (2017) · British Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjop.12212 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Mahl, D., Schäfer, M. S., & Zeng, J. (2022) · New Media & Society · doi:10.1177/14614448221075759 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
“For a long time, conspiracy theories were perceived as harmless phenomena that were “silly and without merit” (Keeley, 1999: 109) or only existed as “‘soft’ beliefs” (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009: 220) that people quietly kept but rarely acted upon.”
BackgroundFacts and Where to Find Them: Empirical Research on Internet Platforms and Content Moderation
Keller, D., & Leerssen, P. (2020) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.1017/9781108890960
Constructing alternative facts: Populist expertise and the QAnon conspiracy
Marwick, A. E., & Partin, W. C. (2022) · New Media & Society · doi:10.1177/14614448221090201 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
“A conspiracy theory claims that a concealed group of powerful people are responsible for some social phenomenon (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
BackgroundPolitical paranoia and conspiracy theories
Swami, V., & Furnham, A. F. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139565417.016 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
“Sunstein and Vermeule (2009) have applied a similar framework to conspiracy theories: rather than being the product of irrationality or mental illness, these authors view conspiracy theories as a rational and logical manner of responding to the little information that individuals have about a…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWho believes in conspiracy theories? A meta-analysis on personality correlates
Stasielowicz, L. (2022) · Journal of Research in Personality · doi:10.1016/j.jrp.2022.104229 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Sapountzis, A., & Condor, S. (2013) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12015 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Trend of Narratives in the Age of Misinformation
Bessi, A., Zollo, F., Del Vicario, M., Scala, A., Caldarelli, G., & Quattrociocchi, W. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0134641 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
“According to [12, 17], conspiracy theories are considered to belong to false beliefs overlooking the pervasive unintended consequences of political and social action.”
BackgroundRizeq, J., Flora, D., & Toplak, M. E. (2020) · Thinking and Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546783.2020.1759688 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
“In the absence of a single definition of conspiracy (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), a conspiracist belief can be viewed as “ the unnecessary assumption of conspiracy when other explanations are more probable ” (Aaronovitch, 2009, p. 5) and an attempt to attribute the cause of an event to secret plots…”
Conspiracy theories and social media platforms
Cinelli, M., Etta, G., Avalle, M., Quattrociocchi, A., Marco, N. D., Valensise, C. M., Galeazzi, A., & Quattrociocchi, W. (2022) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101407 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
The illusion of explanatory depth and endorsement of conspiracy beliefs
Vitriol, J. A., & Marsh, J. K. (2018) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.2504 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
The entertainment value of conspiracy theories
van Prooijen, J., Ligthart, J., Rosema, S., & Xu, Y. (2021) · British Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjop.12522 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
van Prooijen, J. (2016) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.2157 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Deepfake news: AI-enabled disinformation as a multi-level public policy challenge
Whyte, C. (2020) · Journal of Cyber Policy · doi:10.1080/23738871.2020.1797135 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
The social dimension of belief in conspiracy theories
van Prooijen, J., & Lange, P. A. M. V. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139565417.017 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Behavioral and psychosocial factors associated with COVID-19 skepticism in the United States
Latkin, C. A., Dayton, L., Moran, M. B., Strickland, J. C., & Collins, K. (2021) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-020-01211-3 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
“False information is known to circulate in environments of little information and low trust in governmental and other institutions (Sunstein, 2009).”
BackgroundLewandowsky, S., Cook, J., Oberauer, K., Brophy, S., Lloyd, E. A., & Marriott, M. (2015) · Journal of Social and Political Psychology · doi:10.5964/jspp.v3i1.443 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
“(Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009, p. 223, emphasis added).”
BackgroundInfluentialKlein, C., Clutton, P., & Dunn, A. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0225098 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
“Individuals who endorse conspiracy beliefs are known to seek out others with shared beliefs [51], which means that active social self-selection may provide a plausible mechanism for how people assimilate multiple conspiracy theories within a conspiratorial worldview.”
BackgroundThe Conspiracy Mentality Scale
Stojanov, A., & Halberstadt, J. (2019) · Social Psychology · doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000381 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Gershman, S. J. (2018) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-018-1488-8 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
What's Epistemically Wrong with Conspiracy Theorising?
Harris, K. R. (2018) · Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement · doi:10.1017/s1358246118000619 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Systems thinking and environmental concern
Lezak, S., & Thibodeau, P. H. (2016) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2016.04.005 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories
Hornsey, M., Bierwiaczonek, K., Sassenberg, K., & Douglas, K. M. (2022) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-022-00133-0 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
- Authors
- Sunstein, C. R., & Vermeule, A.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Political Philosophy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-04-13
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 202-227
- ISSN
- 0963-8016 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9760
- OpenAlex
- W2009369609
- Cited by
- 1,050
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 90 · 2024: 98 · 2023: 109 · 2022: 161 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 102 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 63 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 2.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nrs.harvard.edu
- Locations
- Journal of Political Philosophy (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Keywords
- conspiracy theories, 9/11 conspiracy theories, cognitive errors, epistemology, misinformation, extremist groups, countering disinformation, public policy
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