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The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud
Abstract
Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.
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“Social identities are connected with different motives including the need to hold positive beliefs about ingroups and negative beliefs about outgroups [44].”
From The dark side of social movements: social identity, non-conformity, and the lure of conspiracy theories (2020) · cites this paper as [44]
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Cited by
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Understanding Conspiracy Theories
Douglas, K. M., Uscinski, J. E., Sutton, R. M., Cichocka, A., Nefes, T., Ang, C. S., & Deravi, F. (2019) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12568 · Cited by 1,511
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BackgroundConspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries
Imhoff, R., Zimmer, F., Klein, O., António, J. H. C., Babińska, M., Bangerter, A., Bilewicz, M., Blanuša, N., Bovan, K., Bužarovska, R., et al. (2022) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01258-7 · Cited by 274
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Berlinski, N., Doyle, M., Guess, A., Levy, G., Lyons, B. A., Montgomery, J., Nyhan, B., & Reifler, J. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Political Science · doi:10.1017/xps.2021.18 · Cited by 135
Metadata
- Authors
- Edelson, J., Alduncin, A., Krewson, C., Sieja, J. A., & Uscinski, J. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA
- St. Lawrence University (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- Corresponding author
- Uscinski, Joseph E.
- Venue
- Political Research Quarterly
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2017-07-31
- Volume
- 70
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 933-946
- ISSN
- 1065-9129 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2739660896
- Cited by
- 198
- References
- 70
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 38
- FWCI
- 39.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Political Research Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
- Keywords
- conspiracy beliefs, motivated reasoning, party identification, voter ID laws, 2012 elections
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