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Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations
Open accessAbstract
In the present contribution, we examine the link between societal crisis situations and belief in conspiracy theories. Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history. We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories. We then review the psychological literature to explain why this is the case. Evidence suggests that the aversive feelings that people experience when in crisis—fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control—stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations. We then explain that after being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission. We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This integrative review argues that belief in conspiracy theories is not unique to the modern digital age or Western cultures, but has recurred throughout history especially during societal crisis situations. It proposes that crisis-induced fear, uncertainty, and lack of control motivate sense-making, and that conspiracy theories can then stabilize into historical narratives transmitted across generations.
Key findings
- Conspiracy theories have not increased over time in the reviewed data: Uscinski and Parent coded 104,803 letters to the New York Times and Chicago Tribune from 1890 to 2010, finding fluctuating but non-increasing conspiratorial content, with spikes shortly before 1900 and in the late 1940s/early 1950s.
- Societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls power structures, norms, or the existence of specific people or groups into question—are proposed to stimulate conspiracy beliefs through fear, uncertainty, and feeling out of control, which increase sense-making motivation.
- Conspiracy theories can become cultural/historical narratives: Gallup polling cited shows JFK conspiracy belief was slightly more than 50% in the 3 years after the assassination, rose to 81% in 1975, stayed above 70% until 2003, peaked again at 81% in the early 2000s, and remains above 60% recently.
- Exposure to conspiracy theories is linked to increased powerlessness and maladaptive intentions, including withdrawal from politics, decreased willingness to reduce one’s carbon footprint, and decreased willingness to vaccinate a child.
Methods
- Design: integrative, theoretical review combining historical observations with psychological literature; no new empirical study is reported.
- Data/sample: historical examples (e.g., AD 64 Rome fire, Jewish conspiracy theories, Holocaust, 9/11, JFK assassination) and prior empirical studies, including Uscinski and Parent’s 104,803 letters, Andeweg’s EU trust/satisfaction data from 1974–2012 and 1997–2012, Gallup JFK polls, and correlational/experimental psychology studies.
- Analysis: narrative synthesis linking societal crisis, uncertainty and lack of control, sense-making, conspiracy belief, and cultural transmission into historical narratives.
Limitations
- Stated: providing an objective definition of “crisis” is difficult because labeling an event a crisis requires subjective judgment and its significance often can only be evaluated in retrospect.
- Stated: no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, so possible cultural differences are speculative; many findings are correlational and cannot establish whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs or vice versa, though experimental work attempts causality.
- Evident from the text: as a narrative review, it does not report a systematic search or meta-analysis, and some claims are explicitly speculative, such as the psychological payoff of conspiracy theories and future trends in JFK conspiracy beliefs.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We then explain that after being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIn the paper
“Since people have a fundamental need to understand why events occurred, particularly in the case of negative or unexpected events (Brückmuller et al., this issue), crisis situations often elicit sense-making narratives among citizens that become part of their representations of history.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Brückmuller et al., this issue
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Evidence suggests that the aversive feelings that people experience when in crisis—fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control—stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Jewish conspiracy theories—suggesting, for instance, that there is a Jewish plot to achieve world domination—still fuel anti-Semitism in various parts of the world, such as Malaysia (Swami, 2012), Turkey (Nefes, 2015), and Poland (Golec de Zavala and Cichocka, 2012).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Swami, 2012
- Not checked yetcites Nefes, 2015
- Not checked yetcites Golec de Zavala and Cichocka, 2012
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Hofstadter (1966) noted that conspiracy theories help people comprehend complex events that are difficult to understand otherwise, by attributing these events to a powerful and evil enemy group.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hofstadter (1966)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such conspiratorial anti-Semitism is a recurring issue throughout history.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Likewise, people who feel powerless are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories (Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999; Imhoff and Bruder, 2014)”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999
- Not checked yetcites Imhoff and Bruder, 2014
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These considerations suggest that conspiracy theories are initiated by the subjective thoughts and feelings that people have when confronted with societal crisis situations, such as a fire, a disease epidemic, a war, a plane crash, or a terrorist strike.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Such consequence-cause matching in conspiracy beliefs is due to an increased motivation to make sense of the event (Van Prooijen and Van Dijk, 2014).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Van Prooijen and Van Dijk, 2014
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If belief in conspiracy theories is a way of making sense of a situation, it follows that such beliefs are increasingly likely to the extent that people experience uncertainty or a lack of control.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- It may state two separate claims as one. 27
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories.”
- Also stated in: § Historical crises and conspiracy theories · boosted
“More important for the present purposes is that societal crisis situations almost invariably elicit conspiracy theories.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Historical crises and conspiracy theories · boosted
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history.”
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · hedged
“A more plausible conclusion, therefore, is that a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories is part of human nature and that people have been susceptible to such beliefs throughout history.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · hedged
In the paper
“While some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true (e.g. the Watergate and Iran–Contra scandals), most conspiracy theories in history have no evidence to support them (Pipes, 1997).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Pipes, 1997
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“People often experience such situations as uncontrollable, and hence, they are a cause of substantial uncertainty and anxiety among citizens.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The psychological concepts of lacking control and experiencing subjective uncertainty are closely interrelated, and both describe the aversive experience of being in situations where it is unclear what the future may hold.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Back in the 1930s and 1940s, Jewish conspiracy theories were a major part of Hitler’s speeches and a potent force in inspiring the Holocaust (Snyder, 2015).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Snyder, 2015
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such a competitive intergroup setting promotes a need to be vigilant, given that the powerful outgroup may cause more harm in the future, and conspiracy beliefs enable perceivers to estimate what the outgroup is capable of.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conspiracy theories provide people with simplified answers, specifically to questions of how a certain crisis situation emerged, and which societal actors can and cannot be trusted.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Crisis situations are likely to have the psychological effect on people that they become uncertain or feel that they cannot control their environment anymore.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, many crisis situations took place, and almost invariably, these crisis situations led large groups of citizens to embrace conspiracy theories.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The first spike occurred shortly before the year 1900, at the height of the second industrial revolution—a period that was characterized by the rise of major companies, quick technological progress, and rapidly changing power structures.”
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
“The second spike occurred during the late 1940s and the early 1950s—a period that marked the beginning of the Cold War.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time?
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Uscinski and Parent (2014)
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, it is often easy to connect societal crises to the purposeful misdeeds of hostile groups, making it likely that many citizens consider the possibility of secret conspiracy formation.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, while these latter conspiracy theories do not emerge from an objectively “real” crisis, they do make assumptions of a powerful government that deceives citizens in a deliberate and highly ingenious fashion. Such conspiracy theories therefore still originate from subjective perceptions of a nation being in crisis.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“But more interesting was the prevalence of conspiracy theories: The extent to which these letters contained conspiracy theories fluctuated but did not increase over time.”
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
“The core conclusion that emerges from these data is that conspiracy theories have not increased over time, and if there ever has been an “age of conspiracism,” it is not in the present decade.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time?
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Uscinski and Parent (2014)
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
In the paper
“Around the same time, however, conspiracy theories started to spread, which asserted that Nero and his associates deliberately started the fire in order to rebuild Rome according to his own vision. In addition, these conspiracy theories stated that Nero was singing while Rome was burning (for a more elaborate description, see Brotherton, 2015).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Brotherton, 2015
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conspiracy theories address these feelings by enabling precautionary actions to the alleged conspirators—leading to increased vigilance that may be useful in exposing, combating, or avoiding the conspiracy.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, while no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, our line of reasoning suggests that possible cultural differences are likely to be attributable to variations in the extent to which cultures experience uncertainty and fear (e.g. low- vs high-trust cultures).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time?
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As each generation typically faces a range of societal crisis situations, such as revolutions, wars, economic recessions, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters, this would explain why conspiracy theorizing has been prevalent throughout history.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time?
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The results suggest that although across EU member states political trust and satisfaction tend to be low, they are not declining.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time?
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Andeweg (2014)
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Even back in the Roman era, there are prominent examples of conspiracy theories, and these are typically connected to major crisis situations.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Historical crises and conspiracy theories
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Brotherton, 2015
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Put differently, a conspiracy theory helps people to make sense of the world by specifying the causes of important events, which further helps them predict, and anticipate, the future.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“It has been noted that people typically make sense of past events as “lay historians” who—unlike professional historians—rarely base their conclusions on direct historical sources. Instead, lay historians transmit historical narratives to others based on their imperfect memory, as well as on other imperfect sources of information such as folklore, novels, films, and the like (see Klein, 2013).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Klein, 2013
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, it is a safe guess that few modern European citizens would endorse such beliefs today (although comparable witchcraft conspiracy theories are still common in other parts of the world, for example, parts of Africa; West and Sanders, 2003).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites West and Sanders, 2003
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For instance, it was common for citizens to believe that many young women conspired as witches with the Devil back in the seventeenth century, and this conspiracy theory in all likelihood emerged through similar processes as other conspiracy theories discussed in this article.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The above-mentioned findings are correlational, and hence, these studies do not reveal whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs, or vice versa.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“At the same time, believing that the world is filled with evil conspiracies is likely to invoke a host of negative emotions, which may help explain why belief in one conspiracy theory stimulates belief in other conspiracy theories (Goertzel, 1994; Wood et al., 2012).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > The psychology of conspiracy beliefs
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Goertzel, 1994
- Not checked yetcites Wood et al., 2012
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Be that as it may, our conclusion is that while conspiracy theories are initially based on the emotional experiences associated with imminent crisis situations, they may soon after stabilize into coherent narratives that are part of how people remember the past.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Here, we propose that while conspiracy theories may originate through the emotional processes of lacking control or feeling uncertain, at a relatively fast pace they can become coherent narratives that shape people’s representations of history (see also Hilton and Liu, this issue).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hilton and Liu, this issue
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one's social environment.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all conspiracy theories make history this way, and in fact, the plausibility that people accord to certain conspiracy theories can also decrease over time as a function of new insights.”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The feature of conspiracy theories that they summarize complex events into a simplified story—typically involving a powerful enemy group (i.e. the conspiracy) that deliberately organizes and carries out an evil plan— makes such theories ideally suited for cultural transmission as they are easily understood by lay people (see Bilewicz et al., this issue; Bruckmüller et al., this issue).”
§ Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations > Implications for historical narratives
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bilewicz et al., this issue
- Not checked yetcites Bruckmüller et al., this issue
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
People have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.
“Such experiences are threatening, as people have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one's wellbeing.
“Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one’s wellbeing.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Societal crisis situations often arouse feelings of fear, uncertainty, or being out of control in people.
“it is likely that societal crisis situations often arouse such feelings in people.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one's social environment.
“The main underlying process for this connection is that uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one’s social environment.”
The paper relies on this without support.
After the first few years following the JFK assassination, the uncertainty and fear caused by the assassination had dissipated among the public.
“It stands to reason that, after these first few years, the uncertainty and fear that were caused by the Kennedy assassination had dissipated among the public.”
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In the citing paper
“speculation and misinformation about his death can continue to serve as a gateway to further conspiratorial thinking, also providing a vocabulary and template to be easily applied in other times of societal unrest and uncertainty (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017).”
From "Just Asking Questions": Doing Our Own Research on Conspiratorial Ideation by Generative AI Chatbots (2026) · cites this paper as van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Citations
Cites
Park, C. L. (2010) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/a0018301 · Cited by 3,174
The Paranoid Style in American Politics and Other Essays
Barker, C. A., & Hofstadter, R. (1966) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.2307/1848349 · Cited by 1,448
The Effects of Anti-Vaccine Conspiracy Theories on Vaccination Intentions
Jolley, D., & Douglas, K. M. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089177 · Cited by 1,232 · cited 1×
“…as withdrawal from politics, a decreased willingness to reduce one’s carbon footprint (in response to climate conspiracy belief), and a decreased willingness to have a child vaccinated (in response to vaccine conspiracy beliefs; Jolley and Douglas, 2014a, 2014b; see also Douglas and Sutton, 2015).”
Self-citationLacking control increases illusory pattern perception
Whitson, J. A., & Galinsky, A. D. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1159845 · Cited by 1,119
Goertzel, T. (1994) · Political Psychology · doi:10.2307/3791630 · Cited by 1,094 · cited 2×
“Although Andeweg (2014) did not directly assess belief in conspiracy theories, measures of trust in, and satisfaction with, politicians have been found to closely predict such beliefs (Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999; Goertzel, 1994).”
Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures
Sunstein, C. R., & Vermeule, A. (2009) · Journal of Political Philosophy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9760.2008.00325.x · Cited by 1,050
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Speaking (Un–)Truth to Power: Conspiracy Mentality as A Generalised Political Attitude
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“Likewise, people who feel powerless are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories (Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999; Imhoff and Bruder, 2014), as are people who strongly experience fear of death (Newheiser et al., 2011).”
BackgroundJolley, D., & Douglas, K. M. (2014) · British Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjop.12018 · Cited by 685
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Metadata
- Authors
- van Prooijen, J.-W., & Douglas, K. M.
- Affiliations
- VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands; The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, The Netherlands
- University of Kent (GB)
- ORCID
- Douglas, Karen M
- Venue
- Memory Studies
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2017-06-29
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 323-333
- ISSN
- 1750-6980 (ISSN-L)
- 1750-6999
- PMC
- PMC5646574
- OpenAlex
- W2601886268
- Semantic Scholar
- a39a4c367f7baa2e4bae6db05f174dc9eb4cfc09
- Cited by
- 764
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 94 · 2022: 164 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 49.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Memory Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Kent Academic Repository (University of Kent) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
- Social Sciences › Cultural Studies › Memory, History, Trauma, Identity
- Keywords
- conspiracy theories, social crisis, fear, uncertainty, sensemaking, historical narratives, cultural transmission, power structures
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-09, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-09 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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