Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations

In the paper

“We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories.”

• Also stated in: § Historical crises and conspiracy theories · boosted

  “More important for the present purposes is that societal crisis situations almost invariably elicit conspiracy theories.”

In the paper

“We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.”

In the paper

“Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history.”

• Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · hedged

  “A more plausible conclusion, therefore, is that a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories is part of human nature and that people have been susceptible to such beliefs throughout history.”

In the paper

“While some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true (e.g. the Watergate and Iran–Contra scandals), most conspiracy theories in history have no evidence to support them (Pipes, 1997).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Pipes, 1997

In the paper

“People often experience such situations as uncontrollable, and hence, they are a cause of substantial uncertainty and anxiety among citizens.”

In the paper

“The psychological concepts of lacking control and experiencing subjective uncertainty are closely interrelated, and both describe the aversive experience of being in situations where it is unclear what the future may hold.”

In the paper

“Back in the 1930s and 1940s, Jewish conspiracy theories were a major part of Hitler’s speeches and a potent force in inspiring the Holocaust (Snyder, 2015).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Snyder, 2015

In the paper

“Such a competitive intergroup setting promotes a need to be vigilant, given that the powerful outgroup may cause more harm in the future, and conspiracy beliefs enable perceivers to estimate what the outgroup is capable of.”

In the paper

“Conspiracy theories provide people with simplified answers, specifically to questions of how a certain crisis situation emerged, and which societal actors can and cannot be trusted.”

In the paper

“Crisis situations are likely to have the psychological effect on people that they become uncertain or feel that they cannot control their environment anymore.”

In the paper

“Thus, many crisis situations took place, and almost invariably, these crisis situations led large groups of citizens to embrace conspiracy theories.”

In the paper

“The first spike occurred shortly before the year 1900, at the height of the second industrial revolution—a period that was characterized by the rise of major companies, quick technological progress, and rapidly changing power structures.”

• Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain

  “The second spike occurred during the late 1940s and the early 1950s—a period that marked the beginning of the Cold War.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Uscinski and Parent (2014)

In the paper

“Moreover, it is often easy to connect societal crises to the purposeful misdeeds of hostile groups, making it likely that many citizens consider the possibility of secret conspiracy formation.”

In the paper

“However, while these latter conspiracy theories do not emerge from an objectively “real” crisis, they do make assumptions of a powerful government that deceives citizens in a deliberate and highly ingenious fashion. Such conspiracy theories therefore still originate from subjective perceptions of a nation being in crisis.”

In the paper

“But more interesting was the prevalence of conspiracy theories: The extent to which these letters contained conspiracy theories fluctuated but did not increase over time.”

• Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain

  “The core conclusion that emerges from these data is that conspiracy theories have not increased over time, and if there ever has been an “age of conspiracism,” it is not in the present decade.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Uscinski and Parent (2014)

In the paper

“Around the same time, however, conspiracy theories started to spread, which asserted that Nero and his associates deliberately started the fire in order to rebuild Rome according to his own vision. In addition, these conspiracy theories stated that Nero was singing while Rome was burning (for a more elaborate description, see Brotherton, 2015).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Brotherton, 2015

In the paper

“Conspiracy theories address these feelings by enabling precautionary actions to the alleged conspirators—leading to increased vigilance that may be useful in exposing, combating, or avoiding the conspiracy.”

In the paper

“Furthermore, while no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, our line of reasoning suggests that possible cultural differences are likely to be attributable to variations in the extent to which cultures experience uncertainty and fear (e.g. low- vs high-trust cultures).”

In the paper

“As each generation typically faces a range of societal crisis situations, such as revolutions, wars, economic recessions, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters, this would explain why conspiracy theorizing has been prevalent throughout history.”

In the paper

“The results suggest that although across EU member states political trust and satisfaction tend to be low, they are not declining.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Andeweg (2014)

In the paper

“Even back in the Roman era, there are prominent examples of conspiracy theories, and these are typically connected to major crisis situations.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Brotherton, 2015

In the paper

“Put differently, a conspiracy theory helps people to make sense of the world by specifying the causes of important events, which further helps them predict, and anticipate, the future.”

In the paper

“It has been noted that people typically make sense of past events as “lay historians” who—unlike professional historians—rarely base their conclusions on direct historical sources. Instead, lay historians transmit historical narratives to others based on their imperfect memory, as well as on other imperfect sources of information such as folklore, novels, films, and the like (see Klein, 2013).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Klein, 2013

In the paper

“Nevertheless, it is a safe guess that few modern European citizens would endorse such beliefs today (although comparable witchcraft conspiracy theories are still common in other parts of the world, for example, parts of Africa; West and Sanders, 2003).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites West and Sanders, 2003

In the paper

“For instance, it was common for citizens to believe that many young women conspired as witches with the Devil back in the seventeenth century, and this conspiracy theory in all likelihood emerged through similar processes as other conspiracy theories discussed in this article.”

In the paper

“The above-mentioned findings are correlational, and hence, these studies do not reveal whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs, or vice versa.”

In the paper

“At the same time, believing that the world is filled with evil conspiracies is likely to invoke a host of negative emotions, which may help explain why belief in one conspiracy theory stimulates belief in other conspiracy theories (Goertzel, 1994; Wood et al., 2012).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Goertzel, 1994
• Not checked yetcites Wood et al., 2012

In the paper

“Be that as it may, our conclusion is that while conspiracy theories are initially based on the emotional experiences associated with imminent crisis situations, they may soon after stabilize into coherent narratives that are part of how people remember the past.”

In the paper

“Here, we propose that while conspiracy theories may originate through the emotional processes of lacking control or feeling uncertain, at a relatively fast pace they can become coherent narratives that shape people’s representations of history (see also Hilton and Liu, this issue).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Hilton and Liu, this issue

In the paper

“Not all conspiracy theories make history this way, and in fact, the plausibility that people accord to certain conspiracy theories can also decrease over time as a function of new insights.”

In the paper

“The feature of conspiracy theories that they summarize complex events into a simplified story—typically involving a powerful enemy group (i.e. the conspiracy) that deliberately organizes and carries out an evil plan— makes such theories ideally suited for cultural transmission as they are easily understood by lay people (see Bilewicz et al., this issue; Bruckmüller et al., this issue).”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites Bilewicz et al., this issue
• Not checked yetcites Bruckmüller et al., this issue