Cited by 764Misinformation and Its ImpactsParanormal Experiences and BeliefsMemory, History, Trauma, Identity

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 52 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations

Open access
van Prooijen, Jan-Willem, Douglas, Karen M·2017·Memory Studies

Abstract

In the present contribution, we examine the link between societal crisis situations and belief in conspiracy theories. Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history. We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories. We then review the psychological literature to explain why this is the case. Evidence suggests that the aversive feelings that people experience when in crisis—fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control—stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations. We then explain that after being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission. We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This integrative review argues that belief in conspiracy theories is not unique to the modern digital age or Western cultures, but has recurred throughout history especially during societal crisis situations. It proposes that crisis-induced fear, uncertainty, and lack of control motivate sense-making, and that conspiracy theories can then stabilize into historical narratives transmitted across generations.

Key findings

  • Conspiracy theories have not increased over time in the reviewed data: Uscinski and Parent coded 104,803 letters to the New York Times and Chicago Tribune from 1890 to 2010, finding fluctuating but non-increasing conspiratorial content, with spikes shortly before 1900 and in the late 1940s/early 1950s.
  • Societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls power structures, norms, or the existence of specific people or groups into question—are proposed to stimulate conspiracy beliefs through fear, uncertainty, and feeling out of control, which increase sense-making motivation.
  • Conspiracy theories can become cultural/historical narratives: Gallup polling cited shows JFK conspiracy belief was slightly more than 50% in the 3 years after the assassination, rose to 81% in 1975, stayed above 70% until 2003, peaked again at 81% in the early 2000s, and remains above 60% recently.
  • Exposure to conspiracy theories is linked to increased powerlessness and maladaptive intentions, including withdrawal from politics, decreased willingness to reduce one’s carbon footprint, and decreased willingness to vaccinate a child.

Methods

  • Design: integrative, theoretical review combining historical observations with psychological literature; no new empirical study is reported.
  • Data/sample: historical examples (e.g., AD 64 Rome fire, Jewish conspiracy theories, Holocaust, 9/11, JFK assassination) and prior empirical studies, including Uscinski and Parent’s 104,803 letters, Andeweg’s EU trust/satisfaction data from 1974–2012 and 1997–2012, Gallup JFK polls, and correlational/experimental psychology studies.
  • Analysis: narrative synthesis linking societal crisis, uncertainty and lack of control, sense-making, conspiracy belief, and cultural transmission into historical narratives.

Limitations

  • Stated: providing an objective definition of “crisis” is difficult because labeling an event a crisis requires subjective judgment and its significance often can only be evaluated in retrospect.
  • Stated: no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, so possible cultural differences are speculative; many findings are correlational and cannot establish whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs or vice versa, though experimental work attempts causality.
  • Evident from the text: as a narrative review, it does not report a systematic search or meta-analysis, and some claims are explicitly speculative, such as the psychological payoff of conspiracy theories and future trends in JFK conspiracy beliefs.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1177/1750698017701615

Cites

49 of 49 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

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Show all 53 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 27
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 6
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
31 of 31
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    People have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.

    “Such experiences are threatening, as people have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one's wellbeing.

    “Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one’s wellbeing.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Societal crisis situations often arouse feelings of fear, uncertainty, or being out of control in people.

    “it is likely that societal crisis situations often arouse such feelings in people.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one's social environment.

    “The main underlying process for this connection is that uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one’s social environment.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    After the first few years following the JFK assassination, the uncertainty and fear caused by the assassination had dissipated among the public.

    “It stands to reason that, after these first few years, the uncertainty and fear that were caused by the Kennedy assassination had dissipated among the public.”
5 of 5

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Metadata

Authors
van Prooijen, J.-W., & Douglas, K. M.
Affiliations
  • VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands; The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, The Netherlands
  • University of Kent (GB)
Venue
Memory Studies
Published
2017-06-29
Volume
10
Issue
3
Pages
323-333
ISSN
  • 1750-6980 (ISSN-L)
  • 1750-6999
OpenAlex
W2601886268
Cited by
764
References
49
Citations by year
2026: 92 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 94 · 2022: 164 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2
FWCI
49.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Memory Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Kent Academic Repository (University of Kent) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
European Commission
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
  • Social Sciences › Cultural Studies › Memory, History, Trauma, Identity
Keywords
conspiracy theories, social crisis, fear, uncertainty, sensemaking, historical narratives, cultural transmission, power structures

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