A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II
Open accessAbstract
Epidemiology as an empirical science has developed sophisticated methods to measure the causes and patterns of disease in populations. Nevertheless, for many diseases in many countries only partial data are available. When the partial data are insufficient, but data collection is not an option, it is possible to supplement the data by exploiting the causal relations between the various variables that describe a disease process. We present a simple generic disease model with incidence, one prevalent state, and case fatality and remission. We derive a set of equations that describes this disease process and allows calculation of the complete epidemiology of a disease given a minimum of three input variables. We give the example of asthma with age-specific prevalence, remission, and mortality as inputs. Outputs are incidence and case fatality, among others. The set of equations is embedded in a software package called 'DisMod II', which is made available to the public domain by the World Health Organization.
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DisMod-MR enforces internal consistency between estimates from different epidemiological parameters.
“uses an Incidence-Prevalence-Mortality mathematical model [18],[27] to enforce internal consistency between estimates from different epidemiological parameters”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [27]
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- Authors
- Barendregt, J. J., van Oortmarssen, G. J., Vos, T., & Murray, C. J.
- Affiliations
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Government of Victoria (AU)
- World Health Organization (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Barendregt, Jan J
- Venue
- Population Health Metrics
- Published
- 2003-04-14
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4-4
- ISSN
- 1478-7954 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC156029
- OpenAlex
- W2136344990
- Cited by
- 402
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 31 · 2012: 15
- FWCI
- 6.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.springer.com/tdm (unspecified)
- Locations
- Population Health Metrics (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Keywords
- disease epidemiology, incidence estimation, disease models, case fatality, remission, asthma, age-specific prevalence, mortality, data-scarce settings, epidemiological inference, public domain software
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