The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder: application for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). METHOD: Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. RESULTS: There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2-4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1-4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0-6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0-3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. CONCLUSION: We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.
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There were 298 million MDD cases in 2010.
“This finding was driven by high prevalence estimates with 298 million MDD cases in 2010 [2] and 106 million cases of dysthymia [3].”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
MDD has been linked to risk factors such as conflict, intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse.
“GBD 2010's capacity to generate country-level burden as well as regional estimates was especially relevant for MDD, which has been linked to risk factors such as conflict [2],[37], intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse [15], the levels of which vary between countries.”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
There is evidence for an elevated risk for mortality in those diagnosed with MDD.
“We found evidence for an elevated risk for mortality in those diagnosed with MDD [2],[25]; however, since a health outcome could only occur once in the GBD cause list, MDD related deaths from suicide and ischemic heart disease were captured under the headings of intentional injuries and cardiovascular disease in the GBD capstone papers [14],[18].”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
The levels of conflict, intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse vary between countries.
“GBD 2010's capacity to generate country-level burden as well as regional estimates was especially relevant for MDD, which has been linked to risk factors such as conflict [2],[37], intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse [15], the levels of which vary between countries.”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
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“…et al. 2013), for ‘childhood’ mental disorders such as conduct disorder and ADHD (Erskine et al. 2013), and for LMICs (Degenhardt et al. 2011; Ferrari et al. 2011, 2013b; Baxter et al. 2013; Charlson et al. 2013; Erskine et al. 2013) which often have the largest proportions of individuals…”
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Baxter, A. J., Scott, K. M., Ferrari, A. J., Norman, R. E., Vos, T., & Whiteford, H. A. (2014) · Depression and Anxiety · doi:10.1002/da.22230 · Cited by 403 · see citing works
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Social Participation and Depression in Old Age: A Fixed-Effects Analysis in 10 European Countries
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Interventions to improve return to work in depressed people
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Social Defeat as an Animal Model for Depression
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Interventions to improve return to work in depressed people
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Neural Substrates of Depression and Resilience
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Mechanistic Insights into the Link between Gut Dysbiosis and Major Depression: An Extensive Review
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“Depression, especially major depressive disorder (MDD), is the second leading cause of disability and the most commonly affective disorder diagnosed in millions of adolescents and adults worldwide within the age bracket of 15–44 years old [1].”
Backgroundon behalf of the CAN-BIND Investigator Team, Lam, R. W. M., Milev, R. V., Rotzinger, S., Andreazza, A. C., Blier, P., Brenner, C. A., Daskalakis, Z. J., Dharsee, M., Downar, J. H., et al. (2016) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-016-0785-x · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Neuronal Correlates of Depression
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Self-citationDiet quality in persons with and without depressive and anxiety disorders
Gibson-Smith, D., Bot, M., Brouwer, I. A., Visser, M., & Penninx, B. W. J. H. (2018) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2018.09.006 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
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Self-citationP2X7 Receptor Signaling in Stress and Depression
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Unfolding the Role of BDNF as a Biomarker for Treatment of Depression
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“According to the WHO’s prediction, depression is expected to become the world’s second leading cause of disability by 2020 [2], leading to a huge social and economic burden on the modern society [3].”
Markkula, N., Suvisaari, J., Saarni, S. I., Pirkola, S. P., Peña, S., Saarni, S. E., Ahola, K., Mattila, A. K., Viertiö, S., Strehle, J., et al. (2014) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2014.10.015 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
“The global point prevalence of major depressive disorder was recently estimated at 4.7% and of dysthymia at 1.6% (Ferrari et al., 2013c; Charlson et al., 2013).”
InfluentialAntidépresseurs et tolérance : déterminants et prise en charge des principaux effets indésirables
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Anti-TNF-α Compounds as a Treatment for Depression
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“These estimations likely depict only a fraction of the true numbers, suggesting that there are presumably myriads of concealed and undiagnosed cases, and acknowledges that there is societal and cultural variance in recognition and interpretation of psychiatric symptoms [1,10].”
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Exercise and Depressive Symptoms in Adolescents
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Efficacy of Vortioxetine on Cognitive Functioning in Working Patients With Major Depressive Disorder
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Culture-sensitive psychotraumatology
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“The significant majority of the global burden of disease arising from mental health conditions occurs in low and middle income countries (LMICs) (Ferrari et al., 2013).”
BackgroundLi, H.-Y., Luo, X.-N., Ke, X.-Y., Dai, Q., Zheng, W., Zhang, C., Cassidy, R., Soares, J., Zhang, X.-Y., & Ning, Y.-P. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0186143 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
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Circuit-based frameworks of depressive behaviors: The role of reward circuitry and beyond
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“Introduction Major depressive disorder (MDD) affects about 10% of adults in the United States and twice as many suffer at least one depressive episode during their lifetime (Andrade et al., 2003; Ferrari et al., 2013).”
Shortened telomere length in patients with depression: A meta-analytic study
Lin, P., Huang, Y., & Hung, C. (2016) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2016.01.015 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
“MDD has worldwide high point and lifetime prevalence of 4.4% and nearly 16.2% respectively (Ferrari et al., 2013; Kessler et al., 2007).”
InfluentialCharlson, F., Flaxman, A. D., Ferrari, A. J., Vos, T., Steel, Z., & Whiteford, H. (2016) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2015.26 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
“At stage one, we followed previously established GBD methodology for summarising and predicting epidemiological data while adjusting for heterogeneity between studies (Charlson et al. 2013; Ferrari et al. 2013).”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citationNanoneurotherapeutics approach intended for direct nose to brain delivery
Md, S., Mustafa, G., Baboota, S., & Ali, J. (2015) · Drug Development and Industrial Pharmacy · doi:10.3109/03639045.2015.1052081 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Depression in patients with peripheral arterial disease: A systematic review
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“Depressive disorders are globally prevalent mental health conditions that significantly impact social and occupational functioning [1-3].”
Encore: Behavioural animal models of stress, depression and mood disorders
Petković, A., & Chaudhury, D. (2022) · Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnbeh.2022.931964 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
“In the United States, this would amount to a projected lifetime incidence of 20– 25%, with the risk of MDD increasing with decreasing age, indicating the significance of the generational factor (Ferrari et al., 2013).”
BackgroundOrientin improves depression‐like behavior and BDNF in chronic stressed mice
Liu, Y., Lan, N., Ren, J., Wu, Y., Wang, S., Huang, X., & Yu, Y. (2015) · Molecular Nutrition & Food Research · doi:10.1002/mnfr.201400753 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“Depression is the most prevalent psychiatric disorder worldwide and imposes a major social and health burden on individuals and society [1].”
BackgroundBrunes, A., & Heir, T. (2020) · World Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.5498/wjp.v10.i6.139 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Use of Antidepressants among Patients Diagnosed with Depression: A Scoping Review
Marasine, N. R., Sankhi, S., Lamichhane, R., Marasini, N. R., & Dangi, N. B. (2021) · BioMed Research International · doi:10.1155/2021/6699028 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“Introduction Depression is a common mental disorder and a major cause of functional disability [1, 2].”
BackgroundBidirectional relations between depression symptoms and chronic kidney disease
Liu, M., Zhang, Y., Yang, S., Wu, Q., Ye, Z., Zhou, C., He, P., Zhang, Y., Hou, F. F., & Qin, X. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.05.104 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
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Prevalence, trends, correlates and treatment of depression in Chile in 2003 to 2010
Markkula, N., Pedro Zitko, M., Peña, S., Margozzini, P., & Pedro Retamal, C. (2017) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-017-1346-4 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Depressive disorders in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Bonadiman, C. S. C., Malta, D. C., Passos, V. M. D. A., Naghavi, M., & Melo, A. P. S. (2020) · Population Health Metrics · doi:10.1186/s12963-020-00204-5 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
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“(1) Anomaly: investigation led to protocol adjustments.”
Ferrario, A., Sedlakova, J., & Trachsel, M. (2024) · JMIR Mental Health · doi:10.2196/56569 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“First, depression affects over 300 million people and the World Health Organization identifies it as the largest single contributor to global disability [20].”
BackgroundInterplay between the key proteins of serotonin system in SSRI antidepressants efficacy
Kulikov, A. V., Gainetdinov, R. R., Ponimaskin, E. G., Kalueff, A. V., Naumenko, V. S., & Popova, N. K. (2018) · Expert Opinion on Therapeutic Targets · doi:10.1080/14728222.2018.1452912 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
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“Exclusion criteria included (1) a history of any significant illness, (2) alcohol abuse [a total score ≥ 8 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (33)], and (3) contraindications to MRI scans.”
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Transcriptome-wide association study identifies new susceptibility genes and pathways for depression
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Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and clinical depression—prevalence in a sleep center
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“In the general population, global point prevalence of depression is higher in females [62].”
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Reduced cerebrospinal fluid ethanolamine concentration in major depressive disorder
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Molecular insights into the therapeutic promise of targeting HMGB1 in depression
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“illnesses, affecting approximately 300 million people of all ages worldwide(1) and representing a vast economic and social burden.(2) Although the causative factors underlying”
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Silibinin exerts antidepressant effects by improving neurogenesis through BDNF/TrkB pathway
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“second most prevalent cause of illness-induced disability worldwide [1].”
Earley, W. R., Guo, H., Németh, G., Harsányi, J., & Thase, M. E. (2025) · Psychopharmacology Bulletin · doi:10.64719/pb.4578 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
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Peripheral arterial disease, gender, and depression in the Heart and Soul Study
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The epidemiological modelling of dysthymia: Application for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
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Self-citationA Pilot Study Investigating the Effect of Music-Based Intervention on Depression and Anhedonia
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The global collaboration on traumatic stress
Schnyder, U., Schäfer, I., Aakvaag, H. F., Ajduković, D., Bakker, A., Bisson, J. I., Brewer, D., Cloître, M., Dyb, G. A., Frewen, P., et al. (2017) · European Journal of Psychotraumatology · doi:10.1080/20008198.2017.1403257 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Are Dietary Patterns Associated with Depression in U.S. Adults?
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“23,24 In addition, dietary practices are known to differ by gender along with various psychosocial, physiological, hormonal, and environmental reasons.”
Jiang, H., Long, X., Wang, Y., Zhang, X., Chen, L., Yang, X., Zhao, B., Zhang, Y., Chai, Y., & Bao, T. (2023) · Molecular Neurobiology · doi:10.1007/s12035-023-03737-6 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
“Depression, one of the most prevalent psychiatric disorders, is characterized by low mood, loss of interest, guilty feelings or low self-esteem, sleep and appetite disorders, anxiety, and anhedonia [1], even exposed to increased risk of suicide [2].”
BackgroundBDNF pro-peptide: physiological mechanisms and implications for depression
Kojima, M., Matsui, K., & Mizui, T. (2019) · Cell and Tissue Research · doi:10.1007/s00441-019-03034-6 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Jarczok, M. N., Aguilar‐Raab, C., Koenig, J., Kaess, M., Borniger, J. C., Nelson, R. J., Hall, M. H., Ditzen, B., Thayer, J. F., & Fischer, J. E. (2018) · Chronobiology International · doi:10.1080/07420528.2018.1439499 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Cerebrospinal fluid BDNF pro-peptide levels in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia.
Mizui, T., Hattori, K., Ishiwata, S., Hidese, S., Yoshida, S., Kunugi, H., & Kojima, M. (2019) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.03.024 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Giollabhui, N. M., Slaney, C., Hemani, G., Foley, É. M., van der Most, P. J., Nolte, I. M., Snieder, H., Smith, G. D., Khandaker, G. M., & Hartman, C. A. (2025) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41398-025-03372-w · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Longitudinal predictors of depression, anxiety, and alcohol use following COVID‐19‐related stress
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Lopes, I. S., Oliveira, I. C. M., Capibaribe, V. C. C., Valentim, J. T., da Silva, D. M. A., de Souza, A. G., de Araújo, M. A., Chaves, R. D. C., Gutierrez, S. J. C., Barbosa‐Filho, J. M., et al. (2018) · Neurochemistry International · doi:10.1016/j.neuint.2018.07.007 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ferrari, A. J., Charlson, F. J., Norman, R. E., Flaxman, A. D., Patten, S. B., Vos, T., & Whiteford, H. A.
- Affiliations
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
- University of Calgary (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Ferrari, Alize J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-07-29
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e69637
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3726670
- OpenAlex
- W1504574652
- Cited by
- 330
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 19 · 2013: 5
- FWCI
- 33.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Faculty of Health; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Treatment of Major Depression
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Keywords
- major depressive disorder, global burden of disease, disease prevalence, incidence, depression duration, sex differences, conflict zones, age distribution, Bayesian meta-regression, global epidemiology
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Major Depressive Disorder, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Young Adult
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