Cited by 47Health Promotion and Cardiovascular PreventionCardiovascular Health and Risk FactorsLipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health

Development of a Risk Equation for the Incidence of Coronary Artery Disease and Ischemic Stroke for Middle-Aged Japanese – Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study –

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Yatsuya, Hiroshi, Iso, Hiroyasu, Li, Yuanying, Yamagishi, Kazumasa, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Saito, Isao, Sawada, Norie, Inoue, Manami +1 more·2016·Circulation Journal

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40-69 years at baseline in 1993-1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Grønnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared. CONCLUSIONS: Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained. (Circ J 2016; 80: 1386-1395).

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Authors
Yatsuya, H., Iso, H., Li, Y., Yamagishi, K., Kokubo, Y., Saito, I., Sawada, N., Inoue, M., & Tsugane, S.
Affiliations
  • Fujita Health University (JP)
  • The University of Osaka (JP)
  • University of Tsukuba (JP)
  • National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (JP)
  • Ehime University (JP)
  • National Cancer Center (US)
Venue
Circulation Journal
Published
2016
Volume
80
Issue
6
Pages
1386-1395
ISSN
  • 1346-9843 (ISSN-L)
  • 1347-4820
OpenAlex
W2341407265
Cited by
47
References
45
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 5
FWCI
5.31
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Circulation Journal (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
University of Minnesota
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
Keywords
coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, risk prediction equations, middle-aged adults, Japanese population, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, HDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, antihypertensive drugs
MeSH terms
Adult, Aged, Coronary Artery Disease, Humans, Ischemia, Japan, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Risk Assessment, Stroke

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