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Cited by 1,727School Choice and PerformanceLabor market dynamics and wage inequalityTeacher Education and Assessments

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 190 of the 190 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 4 of the 33 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood

Open access
Chetty, Raj, Friedman, John N., Rockoff, Jonah E.·2014·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.104.9.2633
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Abstract

Are teachers' impacts on students' test scores (value-added) a good measure of their quality? This question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value-added (VA) teachers improve students' long-term outcomes. Using school district and tax records for more than one million children, we find that students assigned to high-VA teachers are more likely to attend college, earn higher salaries, and are less likely to have children as teenagers. Replacing a teacher whose VA is in the bottom 5 percent with an average teacher would increase the present value of students' lifetime income by approximately $250,000 per classroom. (JEL H75, I21, J24, J45)

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1257/aer.104.9.2633

Cites

190 of 190 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

4 of 33 cited sources checked · 3 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim. 31
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 49
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 3
76 of 76

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Unobserved determinants of outcomes in adulthood such as student ability are unrelated to teacher VA conditional on observable characteristics.

    “The identification assumption underlying this research design is selection on observables: unobserved determinants of outcomes in adulthood such as student ability must be unrelated to teacher VA conditional on the observable characteristics.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    High-frequency teacher turnover within school-grade cells is uncorrelated with student and school characteristics.

    “Our quasi-experimental results rest on the identification assumption that high-frequency teacher turnover within school-grade cells is uncorrelated with student and school characteristics.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Test-score value-added estimates are forecast unbiased: the covariance between true and estimated VA divided by the variance of estimated VA equals 1.

    “ASSUMPTION 1 (Forecast Unbiasedness of Test-Score VA): Test-score value-added estimates  μ jt are forecast unbiased: Cov ( μ jt ,  μ jt ) _ Var (  μ jt ) = Cov ( m jt ,  m jt ) _ Var (  m jt ) = 1.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The impact of teacher VA on earnings remains constant at 1.3 percent over the life cycle.

    “If the impact on earnings remains constant at 1.3 percent over the life cycle, students would gain approximately $39,000 on average in cumulative lifetime income from a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA in a single grade.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The signal quality of VA for long-term impacts does not fall substantially when it is used to evaluate teachers.

    “This result suggests that VA could potentially be a useful tool for evaluating teacher performance if the signal quality of VA for long-term impacts does not fall substantially when it is used to evaluate teachers.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Test-score value-added estimates are orthogonal to unobserved determinants of earnings conditional on X.

    “ASSUMPTION 2 (Selection on Observables): Test-score value-added estimates are orthogonal to unobserved determinants of earnings conditional on X it : (7) Cov (  m jt , η it ′ ) = 0.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Those who are induced to attend college attend a college of average quality.

    “Second, we derive a lower bound on the intensive margin effect by assuming that those who are induced to attend college attend a college of average quality.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Any selection effects would be manifested in all outcomes (test scores, college attendance, earnings, etc.).

    “as any selection effects would presumably be manifested in all of these outcomes.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes are uncorrelated with teacher quality conditional on observables.

    “The estimates in the previous section rely on the assumption that the unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes are uncorrelated with teacher quality conditional on observables.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The distribution of unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes does not change between adjacent cohorts; student quality is stable over time.

    “provided that student quality is stable over time.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Changes in teacher quality across cohorts within a school-grade are orthogonal to changes in other determinants of student outcomes across cohorts.

    “ASSUMPTION 3 (Teacher Switching as a Quasi-Experiment): Changes in teacher quality across cohorts within a school-grade are orthogonal to changes in other determinants of student outcomes Δ η sgt ′ across cohorts: (10) Cov ( Δ Q sgt , Δ η sgt ′ ) = 0.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The percentage gain in earnings remains constant at 1.34 percent over the life cycle.

    “Assume that the percentage gain in earnings remains constant at 1.34 percent over the life cycle”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Earnings are discounted at a 3 percent real rate (5 percent discount rate with 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12.

    “and that earnings are discounted at a 3 percent real rate (i.e., a 5 percent discount rate with 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The undiscounted lifetime earnings gain assumes a 2 percent growth rate but 0 percent discount rate.

    “assuming a 2 percent growth rate but 0 percent discount rate”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The marginal entrant into the labor market would take a job paying the mean earnings level in the sample ($21,256).

    “If the marginal entrant into the labor market were to take a job that paid the mean earnings level in the sample ($21,256)”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The marginal entrant into the labor market most likely has lower earnings than the mean.

    “Since the marginal entrant most likely has lower earnings than the mean”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All tracking to future teachers occurs exclusively via teachers' test-score value-added.

    “First, it assumes that all tracking to future teachers occurs exclusively via teachers' test-score VA.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Net impacts do not net out potential changes in other factors besides teachers, such as peer quality or parental inputs.

    “Second, ˜ κ g does not net out potential changes in other factors besides teachers, such as peer quality or parental inputs.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Teacher effects are additive across grades.

    “Finally, our approach assumes that teacher effects are additive across grades.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.

    “First, we assume that the percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent (Table 3, column 2) over the life cycle.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    General equilibrium effects which may reduce wage rates if all children are better educated are ignored.

    “Second, we ignore general equilibrium effects which may reduce wage rates if all children are better educated.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.

    “Third, we follow Krueger (1999) and discount earnings gains at a 3 percent real annual rate (consistent with a 5 percent discount rate and 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12, the average age in our sample.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Teacher value-added is normally distributed.

    “Finally, we assume that teacher VA m jt is normally distributed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Teachers are evaluated based purely on their value-added in one subject, and value-added in the other subject is ignored.

    “For simplicity, we assume that teachers are evaluated based purely on their VA in one subject (say math) and VA in the other subject is ignored.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The calculations ignore downstream costs that may be required to generate earnings gains, most notably the cost associated with higher college attendance rates.

    “First, they ignore downstream costs that may be required to generate earnings gains, most notably the cost associated with higher college attendance rates.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The calculations ignore the fact that teachers need to be compensated for the added employment risk they face from such an evaluation system.

    “Second, and more importantly, they ignore the fact that teachers need to be compensated for the added employment risk they face from such an evaluation system.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is no evidence to date on the long-term impacts of teacher quality as measured by value-added.

    “but there is no evidence to date on the long-term impacts of teacher quality as measured by value-added.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises earnings by 1.34 percent in all subjects and grade levels.

    “We therefore assume that a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises earnings by 1.34 percent in all subjects and grade levels in the calculations that follow.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Teachers teach one class per year.

    “All calculations assume that teachers teach one class per year and report mean values for math and English teachers, which are calculated separately.”
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Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Teacher-quality changes are described as both entirely staff-driven and partly due to drift

    Minor

    The methodology says changes in mean teacher VA are driven purely by staff changes. A footnote instead says drift in predicted VA for continuing teachers accounts for 5.5 percent of their variance.

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Citations

Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Chetty Raj, 2014, American Economic Review. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer., 104, 2633, 10.1257/aer.104.9.2633 · DOI
  2. Gordon Robert, 2006, The Brookings Institution, Hamilton Project Discussion Paper, 2006
  3. Hanushek Eric A, 1971, American Economic Review, 61, 280
  4. 2010, Calendar Year Projections of Information and Withholding Documents for the United States and IRS Campuses, 2010

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Metadata

Authors
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., & Rockoff, J. E.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Columbia University (US)
ORCID
Chetty, Raj
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2014-09-01
Volume
104
Issue
9
Pages
2633-2679
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/aer.104.9.2633
OpenAlex
W1976049077
Cited by
1,717
References
55
Citations by year
2026: 116 · 2025: 169 · 2024: 146 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 181 · 2021: 153 · 2020: 142 · 2019: 145 · 2018: 134 · 2017: 92 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 73 · 2014: 32
FWCI
584.51
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Education › Teacher Education and Assessments
Keywords
teacher value-added, teacher quality, student outcomes, college attendance, adult earnings, teenage childbearing, lifetime income, teacher assignment

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