The DOI matches its Crossref record; 192 of the 192 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 4 of the 33 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood
Open accessAbstract
Are teachers' impacts on students' test scores (value-added) a good measure of their quality? This question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value-added (VA) teachers improve students' long-term outcomes. Using school district and tax records for more than one million children, we find that students assigned to high-VA teachers are more likely to attend college, earn higher salaries, and are less likely to have children as teenagers. Replacing a teacher whose VA is in the bottom 5 percent with an average teacher would increase the present value of students' lifetime income by approximately $250,000 per classroom. (JEL H75, I21, J24, J45)
Overview
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Claims the paper makes
97 Own result · 75 Own interpretation · 36 Own method · 23 No basis given · 8 Sources not found · 6 No full text of the sources · 6 Not checked yet · 3 Supported · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Our first method of estimating teachers' long-term impacts builds on our finding that conditioning on prior test scores and other observables is adequate to obtain unbiased estimates of teachers' causal impacts on test scores (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > III. Research Design 1: Cross-Class Comparisons
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014 source
Section III, “Research Design 1: Cross-Class Comparisons,” states the claim verbatim and says the paper’s first method builds on that finding. The paper reports and relies on the finding, even though it cites an earlier work for it. (LLM, conf=0.95)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We confirm this rapid fade-out in our data”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we find that students assigned to high-VA teachers are more likely to attend college, earn higher salaries, and are less likely to have children as teenagers.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we find that students assigned to high-VA teachers are more likely to attend college, earn higher salaries, and are less likely to have children as teenagers.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At age 28, the oldest age at which we currently have a sufficiently large sample size to estimate earnings impacts, a one standard deviation increase in teacher quality in a single grade raises annual earnings by 1.3 percent.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We confirm this rapid fade-out in our data, but find that teachers' impacts on earnings are similar to what one would predict based on the cross-sectional correlation between earnings and contemporaneous test score gains.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Improvements in average teacher VA also increase the quality of colleges which students attend.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Improvements in English teacher quality have larger impacts than improvements in math teacher quality.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The impacts on college outcomes are statistically significant with p < 0.01.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we find that students assigned to high-VA teachers are more likely to attend college, earn higher salaries, and are less likely to have children as teenagers.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 31
- It may state two separate claims as one. 49
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“We addressed the first question in the previous paper in this volume (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014) and concluded that VA measures which control for lagged test scores exhibit little or no bias.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014 source
The opening passage explicitly states that the authors concluded VA measures controlling for lagged test scores exhibit little or no bias. The Methodology section also says this paper uses the same VA estimates and controls as the companion paper. Although the finding originated in the previous paper, this source reports and relies on it. (LLM, conf=0.94)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“First, using VA measures to evaluate teachers could induce responses such as teaching to the test or cheating, eroding the signal in VA measures (e.g., Jacob 2005, Neal and Schanzenbach 2010).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Jacob 2005 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction reports that Chicago’s high-stakes testing produced gains largely in test-specific skills rather than comparable gains on a state exam; it also discusses cheating as a possible response, while noting that estimated cheating explained very little of the score gains. The paper supports the concern that testing incentives can distort scores, but it does not specifically examine using value-added measures to evaluate teachers or the signal in those measures. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Neal and Schanzenbach 2010 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Our first paper (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014) showed that existing testscore value-added measures are a good proxy for a teacher's ability to raise students' test scores.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014 source
The Conclusion states the claim directly, explaining that the authors’ first paper showed existing test-score value-added measures to be a good proxy for a teacher’s ability to raise test scores. The Abstract also reports that the earlier paper found little or no bias in value-added measures that control for lagged test scores. The supplied passages do not give page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.94)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Using this design, we find that a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises the probability of college attendance at age 20 by 0.86 percentage points, nearly identical to the estimate obtained from our first research design.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: High-frequency teacher turnover within school-grade cells is uncorrelated with student and school characteristics.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The qualitative conclusion that teacher VA has long-term impacts is not sensitive to trimming, but including teachers in the top 1 percent reduces our estimates of teachers' impacts on long-term outcomes by 10-30 percent.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Methodology
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The mean college quality conditional on attending college is $41,756, while the quality for all those who do not attend college is $17,920.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both parent characteristics and twice-lagged test scores are strong predictors of college attendance rates even conditional on the baseline controls X ct , with F-statistics exceeding 300.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Being assigned to a higher value-added teacher has a significant impact on earnings, with the null hypothesis of κ = 0 rejected with p < 0.01.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Earnings
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At early ages, the impact of higher VA is negative and statistically significant”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Extensive Margin
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“similar to the observed impact of 1.34 percent.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Earnings
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The unconditional relationship between scores and outcomes is S-shaped, while the relationship conditional on prior scores and other covariates is almost perfectly linear.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > D. Cross-Sectional Correlations
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both math and English test scores are highly positively correlated with earnings, college attendance, and neighborhood quality, and are negatively correlated with teenage births.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > D. Cross-Sectional Correlations
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mean individual earnings at age 28 is $20,885, while mean total income is $21,272 (in 2010 US$).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Summary Statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a one standard deviation increase in VA raises college quality by $190 for children whose parents have below-median income, compared with $380 for those whose parents have above-median income.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Demographic Groups
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the t-statistic for college attendance is 3.78”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Full sample
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A one standard deviation increase in current teacher quality typically raises future teacher quality by about 0.05 standard deviations or less in elementary school and by about 0.25 standard deviations in middle school (online Appendix Table 12).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Impacts of Teachers by Grade
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The gains grow fairly rapidly with more data in the first three years, but the marginal value of additional information is small.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With three years of test score data, the gain is $266,000, but the gain increases to only $279,000 after ten years.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The corresponding t-statistic for test scores is 34.0”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Full sample
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“contemporaneous changes in teacher quality have significant effects on college attendance rates, but past or future changes have no impact”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Full sample
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The undiscounted cumulative lifetime earnings gains from deselection are 5.5 times larger than these present value gains ($80,000 per student and $2.25 million per classroom), as shown in online Appendix Table 13.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“After three years, waiting for one more year would increase the gain by $4,000 but has an expected cost of $266,000.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With one year of data, the expected gain per class is $226,000, 56 percent of the gain from selecting on true VA.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the impacts are larger for higherincome and non-minority households in absolute terms.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Demographic Groups
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the point estimate of a one standard deviation increase in teacher quality increases, but the confidence interval is significantly wider because the sample size is considerably smaller.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“κ 0 is positive and highly significant while all the other coefficients are near 0 and statistically insignificant.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Full sample
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the point estimates of the impacts of teacher VA are larger for females than males, although we cannot reject equality of the impacts ( p = 0.102).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Demographic Groups
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on our calculations above, the deselection policy would generate NPV gains of $184,000 per teacher deselected, or $9,250 for all teachers on average (because only 1 out of 20 teachers would actually be deselected).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimated total undiscounted earnings gains from this policy are approximately $50,000 per child and $1.4 million for the average classroom.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises earnings by 1.34 percent in all subjects and grade levels.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Teachers teach one class per year.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Measuring parent income at other points in time yields very similar results (not reported).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The attrition rate is unrelated to teacher VA, consistent with the findings of Boyd et al. (2008).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Boyd et al. (2008)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, drift-unadjusted measures yield rankings of teacher quality that are very highly correlated with our measures and thus produce similar gains.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The within-grade variation in achievement in the district we examine is comparable to the within-grade variation nationwide, so our results can be compared to estimates from other samples.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. School District Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Intuitively, some teachers may be effective at raising students' earnings even if they are not effective at raising test scores, for instance by directly instilling other skills which have long-term payoffs (Jackson 2013).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > I. Conceptual Framework
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Jackson 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although κ g does not correspond directly to earnings VA, it reveals the extent to which the test-score-based VA measures currently used by school districts are informative about teachers' long-term impacts.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > I. Conceptual Framework
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The gains from such policies are only slightly larger than their costs because most bonus payments end up going to high-VA teachers who would have stayed even without the additional payment.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the reduced-form impact combines two effects: the direct impact of having a higher-VA teacher in grade g and the indirect impact of endogenous changes in other educational inputs.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > I. Conceptual Framework
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In our core sample, 15.8 percent of women have teenage births, compared with 14.6 percent in the 2003 ACS.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Tax Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that rankings of college quality are very stable across cohorts and are robust to alternative specifications provided that earnings are measured after age 28 (online Appendix Figure 1, online Appendix Table 2).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Tax Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Importantly, we estimate β Y using within-teacher variation to account for the potential sorting of students to teachers based on VA.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > I. Conceptual Framework
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This pattern of fade-out and re-emergence echoes the findings of recent studies of early childhood interventions (Deming 2009; Heckman et al. 2010b; Chetty et al. 2011).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Deming 2009 source
- Not matchedcites Heckman et al. 2010b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Chetty et al. 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While we cannot directly measure college completion in our data, this finding suggests that higher-quality teachers increase not just attendance but also college completion rates.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A second benchmark is the increase in earnings from an additional year of schooling, which is around 9 percent (Gunderson and Oreopoulos 2010, Oreopoulos and Petronijevic 2013).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Earnings
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gunderson and Oreopoulos 2010 source
- Not matchedcites Oreopoulos and Petronijevic 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that at most (41, 756 -17, 920) × 0.82 percent = $195 of the $299 impact is due to the extensive margin response, confirming that teachers improve the quality of colleges which students attend.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Those who are induced to attend college attend a college of average quality.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This result aligns with existing evidence that improvements in education raise contemporaneous scores, then fade out in later scores, only to reemerge in adulthood (Deming 2009; Heckman et al. 2010b; Chetty et al. 2011).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > D. Other Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Deming 2009 source
- Not matchedcites Heckman et al. 2010b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Chetty et al. 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As with college attendance, the inclusion of these controls has only a modest effect on the point estimates.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the impacts remain significant even in the mid-20s, perhaps because of increased attendance of graduate or professional schools.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This increase is most consistent with an intensive margin effect, as students would be unlikely to jump from not going to college at all to attending a high-quality college.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. College Attendance
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence, higher income households, whose children have higher earnings on average, should be willing to pay larger amounts for higher teacher VA.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given this result, one may expect that comparing the long-term outcomes of students assigned to different teachers conditional on the same control vector will yield unbiased estimates of teachers' long-term impacts.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > III. Research Design 1: Cross-Class Comparisons
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The more conservative approach of clustering by school increases standard errors by 30 percent (for earnings), but does not affect our hypothesis tests at conventional levels of statistical significance (online Appendix Table 7).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Methodology
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the mean present value of lifetime earnings at age 12 in the US population is approximately $522,000.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Earnings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage gain in earnings remains constant at 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings are discounted at a 3 percent real rate (5 percent discount rate with 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We instead cluster standard errors at the school by cohort level when estimating (8) at the class level, which adjusts for correlated errors across classrooms and repeat student observations within a school.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Methodology
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Table 2 of our companion paper, we estimated that the standard deviation of teacher effects on student test scores in elementary school is 0.124 in English and 0.163 in math.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. Subjects: Math versus English
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under the assumption that m jt is normally distributed, a teacher in the bottom 5 percent of the true VA distribution is on average 2.063 standard deviations below the mean teacher quality.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Teacher value-added is normally distributed.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We estimate one-year persistence using more than 5.6 million studentyear-subject observations and four-year persistence using more than 1.3 million student-year-subject observations.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > IV. Research Design 2: Teacher Switching Quasi-Experiments
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which as noted above relies on a stronger identification assumption but is bolstered by generating results which are similar to the quasi-experimental design in the full sample.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > V. Heterogeneity of Teachers' Impacts
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This result implies that higher income families should be willing to pay more for high-VA teachers.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Demographic Groups
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the quasi-experimental estimate is much less precise because it exploits less variation.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have much less power here both because the college attendance is only observed for the older half of our sample and because college is a much noisier outcome than end-of-grade test scores.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > Full sample
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even though teachers have much smaller impacts on English test scores than math test scores, the small improvements that good teachers generate in English are associated with substantial long-term impacts.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > B. Subjects: Math versus English
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This pattern is consistent with the cross-sectional correlations between test scores and adult outcomes, which are also relatively stable across grades (online Appendix Table 6).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Impacts of Teachers by Grade
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The greater degree of tracking in middle school is consistent with the availability of subject-specific honors classes in grades 7 and 8.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > C. Impacts of Teachers by Grade
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Unfortunately, this is not feasible because our primary research design requires conditioning on lagged test scores and lagged scores are endogenous to teacher quality in the previous grade.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, because VA estimates are not perfect predictors of m jt , there is still substantial room to use other measures-such as principal evaluations or student surveys-to complement VA estimates and improve predictions of teacher quality.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Replacing ineffective teachers is more cost-effective than attempting to retain high-VA teachers because most teachers stay for the following school year and are relatively inelastic to salary increases.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on these estimates, a one-time bonus payment of $1,800 to high-VA teachers who return for a fourth year would increase retention rates in the next year by 1.5 percentage points and generate an average benefit of $3,180.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whether or not VA is ultimately used as a policy tool, our results show that parents should place great value on having their child in the classroom of a high valueadded teacher.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Recent work has shown that early childhood education has significant long-term impacts (e.g.,Heckman et al. 2010a, 2010b, Chetty et al. 2011)”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Heckman et al. 2010a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Heckman et al. 2010b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Chetty et al. 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reason that estimation error and drift do not heavily erode the gains from deselection of low VA teachers is that very few of the teachers rated in the bottom 5 percent turn out to be high-VA teachers.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence, while accounting for drift is important for evaluating out-of-sample forecasts accurately, it may not be critical for practical policy applications for VA.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“For instance, classroom observations have significant noise and may capture transitory fluctuations in teacher quality(Kane et al. 2013).”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kane et al. 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The remaining students are likely to have parents who did not file tax returns in the early years of the sample when they could have claimed their child as a dependent, making it impossible to link the children to their parents.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Rothstein estimates that a policy which fires teachers if their estimated VA after three years falls below the fifth percentile would require a mean salary increase of 1.4 percent to equilibrate the teacher labor market.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Rothstein (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of course, these other measures will also be affected by drift and estimation error.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VII. Conclusion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Together with the preceding results, Rothstein's (2013) findings imply that deselecting low-VA teachers could be a very cost effective policy if the signal quality of VA does not fall substantially when used for personnel evaluation.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > VI. Policy Analysis
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Rothstein (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
Unobserved determinants of outcomes in adulthood such as student ability are unrelated to teacher VA conditional on observable characteristics.
“The identification assumption underlying this research design is selection on observables: unobserved determinants of outcomes in adulthood such as student ability must be unrelated to teacher VA conditional on the observable characteristics.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
High-frequency teacher turnover within school-grade cells is uncorrelated with student and school characteristics.
“Our quasi-experimental results rest on the identification assumption that high-frequency teacher turnover within school-grade cells is uncorrelated with student and school characteristics.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Test-score value-added estimates are forecast unbiased: the covariance between true and estimated VA divided by the variance of estimated VA equals 1.
“ASSUMPTION 1 (Forecast Unbiasedness of Test-Score VA): Test-score value-added estimates μ jt are forecast unbiased: Cov ( μ jt , μ jt ) _ Var ( μ jt ) = Cov ( m jt , m jt ) _ Var ( m jt ) = 1.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The impact of teacher VA on earnings remains constant at 1.3 percent over the life cycle.
“If the impact on earnings remains constant at 1.3 percent over the life cycle, students would gain approximately $39,000 on average in cumulative lifetime income from a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA in a single grade.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The signal quality of VA for long-term impacts does not fall substantially when it is used to evaluate teachers.
“This result suggests that VA could potentially be a useful tool for evaluating teacher performance if the signal quality of VA for long-term impacts does not fall substantially when it is used to evaluate teachers.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Test-score value-added estimates are orthogonal to unobserved determinants of earnings conditional on X.
“ASSUMPTION 2 (Selection on Observables): Test-score value-added estimates are orthogonal to unobserved determinants of earnings conditional on X it : (7) Cov ( m jt , η it ′ ) = 0.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Those who are induced to attend college attend a college of average quality.
“Second, we derive a lower bound on the intensive margin effect by assuming that those who are induced to attend college attend a college of average quality.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Any selection effects would be manifested in all outcomes (test scores, college attendance, earnings, etc.).
“as any selection effects would presumably be manifested in all of these outcomes.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes are uncorrelated with teacher quality conditional on observables.
“The estimates in the previous section rely on the assumption that the unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes are uncorrelated with teacher quality conditional on observables.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The distribution of unobserved determinants of students' long-term outcomes does not change between adjacent cohorts; student quality is stable over time.
“provided that student quality is stable over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Changes in teacher quality across cohorts within a school-grade are orthogonal to changes in other determinants of student outcomes across cohorts.
“ASSUMPTION 3 (Teacher Switching as a Quasi-Experiment): Changes in teacher quality across cohorts within a school-grade are orthogonal to changes in other determinants of student outcomes Δ η sgt ′ across cohorts: (10) Cov ( Δ Q sgt , Δ η sgt ′ ) = 0.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The percentage gain in earnings remains constant at 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
“Assume that the percentage gain in earnings remains constant at 1.34 percent over the life cycle”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Earnings are discounted at a 3 percent real rate (5 percent discount rate with 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12.
“and that earnings are discounted at a 3 percent real rate (i.e., a 5 percent discount rate with 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The undiscounted lifetime earnings gain assumes a 2 percent growth rate but 0 percent discount rate.
“assuming a 2 percent growth rate but 0 percent discount rate”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The marginal entrant into the labor market would take a job paying the mean earnings level in the sample ($21,256).
“If the marginal entrant into the labor market were to take a job that paid the mean earnings level in the sample ($21,256)”
The paper relies on this without support.
The marginal entrant into the labor market most likely has lower earnings than the mean.
“Since the marginal entrant most likely has lower earnings than the mean”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All tracking to future teachers occurs exclusively via teachers' test-score value-added.
“First, it assumes that all tracking to future teachers occurs exclusively via teachers' test-score VA.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Net impacts do not net out potential changes in other factors besides teachers, such as peer quality or parental inputs.
“Second, ˜ κ g does not net out potential changes in other factors besides teachers, such as peer quality or parental inputs.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Teacher effects are additive across grades.
“Finally, our approach assumes that teacher effects are additive across grades.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher value-added on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent over the life cycle.
“First, we assume that the percentage impact of a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA on earnings observed at age 28 is constant at b = 1.34 percent (Table 3, column 2) over the life cycle.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
General equilibrium effects which may reduce wage rates if all children are better educated are ignored.
“Second, we ignore general equilibrium effects which may reduce wage rates if all children are better educated.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Earnings gains are discounted at a 3 percent real annual rate back to age 12.
“Third, we follow Krueger (1999) and discount earnings gains at a 3 percent real annual rate (consistent with a 5 percent discount rate and 2 percent wage growth) back to age 12, the average age in our sample.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Teacher value-added is normally distributed.
“Finally, we assume that teacher VA m jt is normally distributed.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Teachers are evaluated based purely on their value-added in one subject, and value-added in the other subject is ignored.
“For simplicity, we assume that teachers are evaluated based purely on their VA in one subject (say math) and VA in the other subject is ignored.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The calculations ignore downstream costs that may be required to generate earnings gains, most notably the cost associated with higher college attendance rates.
“First, they ignore downstream costs that may be required to generate earnings gains, most notably the cost associated with higher college attendance rates.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The calculations ignore the fact that teachers need to be compensated for the added employment risk they face from such an evaluation system.
“Second, and more importantly, they ignore the fact that teachers need to be compensated for the added employment risk they face from such an evaluation system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is no evidence to date on the long-term impacts of teacher quality as measured by value-added.
“but there is no evidence to date on the long-term impacts of teacher quality as measured by value-added.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises earnings by 1.34 percent in all subjects and grade levels.
“We therefore assume that a one standard deviation improvement in teacher VA raises earnings by 1.34 percent in all subjects and grade levels in the calculations that follow.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Teachers teach one class per year.
“All calculations assume that teachers teach one class per year and report mean values for math and English teachers, which are calculated separately.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“To put these observed effects into perspective, Chetty et al. (2014) observe that raising student achievement by 0.2 standard deviations results, on average, in a 2.6% increase in annual lifetime earnings.”
From The effect of school closures on standardised student test outcomes (2022) · cites this paper as Chetty et al. (2014)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“And there is substantial variability in teacher job performance: measured both in the short-run with students' test scores (see Jackson, Rockoff, and Staiger 2014 for a review) and the long-run with students' economic and social success years later as adults (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014).”
From Learning Job Skills from Colleagues at Work: Evidence from a Field Experiment Using Teacher Performance Data (2020) · cites this paper as Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Chetty et al. (2014) estimate that a 1 standard deviation increase in teacher value-added (VA) corresponds with a 0.4 percentage point increase in adult employment.”
From A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends (2023) · cites this paper as Chetty et al. (2014)
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“We addressed the first question in the previous paper in this volume (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014) and concluded that VA measures which control for lagged test scores exhibit little or no bias.”
From Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood (2014) · cites this paper as Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Our first method of estimating teachers' long-term impacts builds on our finding that conditioning on prior test scores and other observables is adequate to obtain unbiased estimates of teachers' causal impacts on test scores (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014).”
From Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood (2014) · cites this paper as Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Our first paper (Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014) showed that existing testscore value-added measures are a good proxy for a teacher's ability to raise students' test scores.”
From Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood (2014) · cites this paper as Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff 2014
In the citing paper
“Additionally, Chetty et al. (2014) observe that increasing student achievement by 0.20 SD results on average in a 2.6 percent increase in annual lifetime earnings (Maldonado & De Witte, 2020).”
From Learning loss during Covid-19: An early systematic review (2022) · cites this paper as Chetty et al. (2014)
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Methodology
“the variation in Δ Q sgt is driven purely by changes in the teaching staff and not by changes in teachers' VA estimates.”
§ Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood † > A. Methodology
“Part of the variation in Δ Q sgt comes from drift.Even for a given teacher, predicted VA will change because our forecast of VA varies across years.Because the degree of drift is small across a single year, drift accounts for 5.5 percent of the variance in Δ Q sgt .”
Citations
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Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Chetty Raj, 2014, American Economic Review. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer., 104, 2633, 10.1257/aer.104.9.2633 · DOI
- Gordon Robert, 2006, The Brookings Institution, Hamilton Project Discussion Paper, 2006
- Hanushek Eric A, 1971, American Economic Review, 61, 280
- 2010, Calendar Year Projections of Information and Withholding Documents for the United States and IRS Campuses, 2010
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Metadata
- Authors
- Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., & Rockoff, J. E.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- ORCID
- Chetty, Raj
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2014-09-01
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 2633-2679
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1976049077
- Cited by
- 1,717
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 116 · 2025: 169 · 2024: 146 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 181 · 2021: 153 · 2020: 142 · 2019: 145 · 2018: 134 · 2017: 92 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 73 · 2014: 32
- FWCI
- 584.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Education › Teacher Education and Assessments
- Keywords
- teacher value-added, teacher quality, student outcomes, college attendance, adult earnings, teenage childbearing, lifetime income, teacher assignment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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