The DOI matches its Crossref record; 96 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 1 are not checked yet; 15 of the 87 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
Open accessAbstract
Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy. (JEL D72, F14, J15, L82, R23)
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In the paper
“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Pierce and Schott 2016 source
- Supportedcites Acemoglu et al. 2016 source
The Concluding Discussion (p. 44) reports that U.S. manufacturing industries heavily exposed to Chinese import competition experienced rapid, differential employment declines. The Estimates section (p. 40) also attributes substantial job losses in trade-exposed industries to increased import competition from China. These passages support the employment-contraction portion of the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.94)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 5.1 (p. 15) finds that plant death is more likely in industries with greater exposure to imports from low-wage countries. Section 3 (p. 9) includes China among those countries, but the reported result is for the group, not for exposure to trade with China specifically. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
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In the paper
“The concentrated impact of the China shock on specific industries and regions makes the economic consequences of trade acutely recognizable and therefore politically salient (Margalit 2011; Di Tella and Rodrik 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Margalit 2011 source
- Partly supportedcites Di Tella and Rodrik 2019 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction links trade-related job losses to manufacturing, discusses China's trade shock, and says shocks to local labor markets can produce political reactions. It does not say that the China shock's concentration in particular industries and regions makes its consequences more recognizable or explains its political salience. The indexed passages provide section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesEvery source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“We isolate the component of growth in US imports from China that is driven by export-supply growth in China, rather than US product-demand shocks, following the identification strategy in Autor et al. (2014) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Autor et al. 2014 source
The Introduction says the study instruments for growth in U.S. imports from China using import growth in other high-income countries to account for U.S. demand and productivity shocks. Section 7, “Alternative Specifications,” explicitly describes this as identifying Chinese supply shocks rather than destination-market demand shocks, and also presents a gravity-based measure that removes variation associated with import-demand shocks. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Supportedcites Acemoglu et al. 2016 source
Section 3.1 (p. 13) says the paper instruments for US trade exposure using growth in other high-income countries’ imports from China to capture the supply-driven component and avoid contamination from US industry import-demand shocks. This supports the identification strategy attributed to Acemoglu et al. (2016). (LLM, conf=0.94)
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Supported
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In the paper
“Industries more exposed to trade with China have seen higher exit of plants (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2006), larger contractions in employment (Pierce and Schott 2016; Acemoglu et al. 2016), and lower incomes for affected workers (Autor et al. 2014; Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017; Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019; Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Autor et al. 2014 source
The Conclusion reports that workers initially employed in industries subsequently exposed to greater import competition from China had lower cumulative earnings and lower earnings per year worked over 1992–2007. This directly supports the lower-incomes portion of the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.94)
- Partly supportedcites Galle, Rodríguez-Clare, and Yi 2017 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.2 reports that groups more exposed to the China shock experienced a relative decline in average earnings. The analysis measures income for groups of workers across all employment, not specifically workers in more-exposed industries; its manufacturing-worker income estimate was negative but not statistically significant. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro 2019 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Supported
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In the paper
“Because right-wing populist movements tend to arise during times of economic hardship (Hutchings and Valentino 2004; Inglehart and Norris 2016; Algan et al. 2017), a related explanation for the co-occurrence of heightened animus toward both foreign trading partners and foreign-born individuals stems from political opportunism.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hutchings and Valentino 2004 source
- Partly supportedcites Inglehart and Norris 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The analysis of European populist voting (p. 28) finds that experience of unemployment was positively linked with populist support. But it describes the evidence across economic-insecurity measures as mixed and does not establish that right-wing populist movements tend to arise during periods of economic hardship. (LLM, conf=0.82)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Algan et al. 2017 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Dippel et al. 2017 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.2 says import exposure increased the extreme right’s vote share in the paper’s German data, and Section 3 identifies the trade studied as Germany’s trade with China and Eastern Europe. The cited clause also includes French regions, but this paper’s analysis does not cover France. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Malgouyres 2017 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“The loss of manufacturing jobs has represented a major contraction in high-wage earning opportunities, especially for less-educated males (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Employment and Earnings section (page unavailable) reports large declines in manufacturing employment and finds that manufacturing trade shocks reduced young men's employment and earnings, with the largest relative earnings losses among low earners. It does not establish that the lost jobs were high-wage opportunities or specifically show a greater contraction for less-educated men; low earnings are not the same as low education. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 47
- It may state two separate claims as one. 93
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
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In the paper
“This occurs despite the fact that the net impact of the China shock on the Republican vote share in Congressional elections is small, and in some years even negative, as is the case in a county-level vote share analysis by Che et al. (2016).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Che et al. 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Conclusion reports a county-level increase of 1.5 percentage points in the Democratic Congressional vote share with greater exposure to the China trade-policy change. That is consistent with a modest effect unfavorable to Republicans, but the paper does not establish the claimed year-by-year pattern in Republican vote share; it also describes its estimated effect as economically significant. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Introducing social-identity theory into an otherwise standard trade model, Grossman and Helpman (2018) shows how adverse economic shocks, due to, e.g., globalization, may precipitate both a psychological response that strengthens one's identification with a particular social group (e.g., the White working class) and a material interest in stronger trade protection.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Grossman and Helpman 2018 source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Intensified foreign competition (or other adverse shocks) may thus increase the political salience of racial and ethnic identities among voters, along with support for nationalist economic policies.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Grossman and Helpman 2018 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Conclusion (section 8; page unavailable) says globalization can widen income inequality, prompting a class-based populist shift and greater demand for protectionism. The Introduction (section 1; page unavailable) separately finds that heightened racial or ethnic salience can produce higher tariffs under certain conditions. The paper does not say that intensified foreign competition increases the salience of racial or ethnic identities; the claim joins two distinct pathways. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“During the Great Depression, far-right movements had greater success in European countries that had more prolonged downturns (de Bromhead, Eichengreen, and O'Rourke 2013).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Supportedcites de Bromhead, Eichengreen, and O'Rourke 2013 source
The Regression Results report that lower cumulative growth was associated with a higher fascist vote. They also find that growth over a prolonged period—three years or more—mattered more than growth over the preceding year alone. This supports the claim about greater far-right electoral success amid prolonged downturns. (LLM, conf=0.91)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These results are broadly in line with Che et al. (2016), which documents vote share gains for Democrats in counties with greater exposure to Chinese import competition from 2002 to 2010.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Che et al. (2016) source
The Conclusion reports that counties more exposed to Chinese import competition saw increases in the Democratic vote share in Congressional elections. The Election Results and Demographics section identifies county-level election data through 2010, and the paper examines changes after the 2000 trade-policy change, consistent with the cited 2002–2010 period. (LLM, conf=0.92)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although shocks increase campaign contributions from both liberal and conservative donors, across all districts the net beneficiaries in terms of electoral results are Republican candidates, and the most conservative candidates in particular.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that the GOP was especially successful in increasing its vote share in competitive districts, while the Democratic party gained vote shares but not congressional seats in noncompetitive districts.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A consistent finding woven among the many threads of evidence we examine is that the rightward shifts in ideological affiliation and voting patterns are more concentrated among or driven by non-Hispanic Whites, with small, zero, or countervailing effects evident among Hispanics and non-Whites.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the share of contributions by conservative (third tercile) donors rises to 0.42 in 2010, a level maintained through 2016”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The initial mean CF score for GOP congressional legislators was 0.40 ( σ = 0.20 ), whereas that for Democrats was -0.23 ( σ = 0.26 ).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In all years, Fox News is the dominant network.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Changes in Cable News Viewing Habits of Households
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fraction of participants whose ideology was mostly or strongly conservative (Pew score of 3 to 10) rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 26.9 percent in 2015, with most of this change occurring by 2011.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Changes in Voter Beliefs on Political Issues
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over 2002 to 2016, donations by individuals remained roughly stable at around one-half of all contributions”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over time, the share of moderates in contributions by type fell for both corporations and individuals, while it rose from low levels among noncorporate organizations.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Share of contributions by donor ideology
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“Its ratings rose from 1.36 percent in 2004 to 2.04 percent in 2016, while its share of cable news viewers declined modestly from 57.5 percent in 2004 to 52.8 percent in 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Changes in Cable News Viewing Habits of Households
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Democrats have become more liberal, with average CF scores falling by 0. 14 from 1992 to 2002 and by 0.02 from 2002 to in 2016”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While centrist donors dominate among corporations, perhaps reflecting the desire of business to remain in the good graces of whichever party is in control of Congress, liberals and conservatives dominate among individual and noncorporate donors.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Share of contributions by donor ideology
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the share of contributions by centrist donors has declined over time, dropping to 0.23 in 2010 and remaining at that level through 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Republican legislators have become more conservative in terms of the donors that support their elections, with their average CF score rising by 0.10 from 1992 to 2002 and by 0.10 again from 2002 to 2016, with the total 1992-2016 change equal to 1 ( [0.60 -0.40]/0.20 ) standard deviation of the Republican CF score in the initial year.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the share of contributions by liberal (first tercile) donors first rises to 0.42 in 2008 and then declines to 0.35 in 2010, a level maintained through 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Panels B and C of Table 1 documents that both levels of and changes in political beliefs vary markedly by race and ethnicity.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Changes in Voter Beliefs on Political Issues
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The 2004 to 2016 Fox News gain in ratings is large among households headed by non-Hispanic Whites and negligible among households headed by non-Whites, relatively few of which are Fox viewers.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Changes in Cable News Viewing Habits of Households
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The data show both a rightward shift and a strong polarization in participant political beliefs over the 2000s.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Changes in Voter Beliefs on Political Issues
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coefficient estimates increase substantially in magnitude and become significant in the 2002-2008 period, and remain comparable in subsequent periods apart from a dip in 2014.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the coefficient estimate doubles in magnitude and remains marginally significant.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“They are small in the first two periods, roughly double in magnitude value in the middle three periods, 2002-2008, 2002-2010, and 2002-2012, and increase further in the final two periods.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The full impact of the 2002-2010 China trade shock was yet to be felt during 2002-2004 and 2002-2006, and China's reform-driven export boom was largely complete from 2002-2008 onward.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“greater trade exposure increases contributions by left-leaning donors, defined as the sum of contributions by donors whose CF scores fall within the first tercile (most liberal) of 2002 CF scores.This impact is positive and precisely estimated in all 2SLS specifications.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Turning to the 2SLS regression in column 2, the trade-shock coefficient estimate doubles in magnitude and becomes more precisely estimated ( t = 2.12 ).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results in Table 2 are fully replicated for these alternative horizons.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
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In the paper
“even though cable news viewership does rise in the aggregate across CZs during the sample period.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
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In the paper
“This demographic split is, not surprisingly, correlated with the political affiliation of elected representatives.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These impacts are positive and precisely estimated in each time period.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“Averaging over these elections, 1 out of every 6 districts with boundary changes (15.7 percent) switched parties, while only 1 out of every 26 districts without boundary change (3.8 percent) did so.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Adjusting for Redistricting
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In the paper
“In trade-exposed majority-minority areas, Republicans achieved some gains until the 2002-2008 period, but faced small and imprecisely estimated losses in 2002-2010 or any subsequent period, shown in panel B of Figure 5.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This effect is significant at the 10 percent level in 2002-2010 ( t = 1.88 ), 2002-2012 ( t = 1.88 ), 2002-2014 ( t = 1.95 ), and 2002-2016 ( t = 1.72 ) for which the coefficient magnitude falls in the narrow range of 29.9 to 26.8.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
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In the paper
“we indeed find that greater trade exposure has a positive impact on the likelihood that Republicans win an election with a relatively narrow GOP vote margin of up to 20 percent, while reducing the likelihood of a dominant GOP victory with a margin exceeding 20 percent.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The impacts are marginally significant for 2002-2010, 2002-2012, and 2002-2014 ( t-values t = 1.8 , 1.82, and 1.93, respectively) and slightly less precise for 2002-2016 ( t = 1.61 ).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
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In the paper
“In districts dominated by Whites, the political beneficiaries of these economic forces are Republicans, particularly from the far right, whereas minority-dominated districts experience shifts to the left end of the spectrum.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
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In the paper
“panel B shows that the trade-exposure impact on the GOP vote share is small, negative, and highly imprecisely estimated, as is the case for 2002 to 2006, 2008, and 2010.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
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In the paper
“The results from this analysis qualitatively align with those from Section IIIA on cable news market shares, but they lack precision because the survey data contain only a small number of individual-level observations per CZ.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over 2000 to 2010, China's annual growth rate in manufacturing exports was 11.5 percentage points (p.p.) faster than the world as a whole; over 2010 to 2016, its growth advantage was just 2.8 p.p.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
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In the paper
“Electoral gains for the GOP emerge in the 2010 mid-term election, which brought many Tea Party Republicans into Congress, and persist thereafter.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moderate Republicans suffer small declines in election probability in each period of the analysis, and thus underperform relative to conservatives in their party, while liberal Democrats' similarly small declines outperform the much larger losses suffered by moderate Democrats.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“over the 2002-2012, 2002-2014, and 2002-2016 time periods, greater trade exposure had positive and precisely estimated impacts on the incremental probability that a GOP candidate won the election, where the coefficient magnitudes for these later-ending periods are similar to those for 2002-2010.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With either classification, a majority of the gains for conservative Republicans come at the expense of moderate Democrats, and within either party, moderates perform worse than non-moderates.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the column 6 regression with full controls, we see that the impact of import competition on the Fox News market share has a slightly smaller magnitude and remains precisely estimated when we include non-presidential-election months in the analysis.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both majority-White and majority-minority locations, however, these polarizing ideological shifts come primarily at the electoral expense of moderate Democrats, meaning that the net gain in seats accrues primarily to the Republican Party.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For 2002-2010, the shock-induced decline in election probability for moderate Democrats is 52.3 percent ( -15.6/29.9 ) of the gain for GOP conservatives, a fraction that reaches 85.9 percent ( -23.1/26.8 ) for 2002-2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| Δ2004-2015 | 0.71 | 0.1 | -13.0 | 12.9 |”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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In the paper
“| ΔCZ import penetration × [t = 2012] | -0.18 | -0.10 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.16 | 0.03 |”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ΔCZ import penetration × [t = 2012] | -0.51 | -1.28 | -6.51 | -5.37 | -4.34 | -4.20 |”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ΔCZ import penetration × [t = 2012] | -2.34 | -4.58 | 1.42 | -1.95 | -3.98 | -6.28 |”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both periods, the impact of trade shocks on the change in GOP win probability increases in magnitude with the addition of industry and occupation controls and census division dummies, and becomes precisely estimated once the latter geographic variables are included.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A sizable rightward shift among the GOP and a modest leftward shift among Democrats has left few centrists in either party.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence, although the ideological composition of political donations appears to polarize in trade-exposed districts, the net electoral benefits accrue to the GOP.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“These trends are also reflected in, and amplified by, popular media (DellaVigna and Kaplan 2007; Levendusky 2013; Martin and Yurukoglu 2017).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Mian, Sufi, and Trebbi (2014) finds that while congressional voting patterns become more polarized following financial crises, these movements are temporary.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Mian, Sufi, and Trebbi 2014 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
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In the paper
“The local labor markets that are home to more-exposed industries have endured greater job loss and larger increases in unemployment, nonparticipation in the labor force, uptake of government transfers (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a, 2019), and declines in tax revenues and housing prices (Feler and Senses 2015).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a, 2019
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When studying the extended 2002-2016 period, we exclude electoral outcomes across the intermediate 2010-2012 redistricting seam, except for the small number of districts that did not change boundaries.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
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In the paper
“The local labor markets that are home to more-exposed industries have endured greater job loss and larger increases in unemployment, nonparticipation in the labor force, uptake of government transfers (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a, 2019), and declines in tax revenues and housing prices (Feler and Senses 2015).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Feler and Senses 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Although the widening ideological divide in Congress tracks rising US income inequality (McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016; Voorheis, McCarty, and Shor 2016), the coincidence of these two phenomena does not reveal which underlying shocks intensify partisanship.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Voorheis, McCarty, and Shor 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Among voters, ideological cleavages by race and education have also widened, as seen most notably in a realignment of less-educated Whites with the GOP (Pew Research Center 2017).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Pew Research Center 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Moderate Democrats have become increasingly rare in Congress, while Tea Party and like-minded conservatives have risen to prominence in the GOP (Madestam et al. 2013).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Madestam et al. 2013 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The twenty-first century has also seen greater polarization in the policy preferences and media viewing habits of the American public.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Pew Research Center 2014a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Gentzkow 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“In the 1990s and early 2000s, roughly one-half of respondents took moderate positions on prominent political issues; by the late 2000s the centrist share had shrunk to under 40 percent, as individuals adopted more strident views on the left or right (Pew Research Center 2014a; Gentzkow 2016).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Pew Research Center 2014a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Gentzkow 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Even controlling for legislator party affiliation, CF scores for members of Congress are strongly positively correlated with the likelihood that a representative voted in favor of legislation deemed as conservative (e.g., stronger immigration enforcement) and strongly negatively correlated with the likelihood that a representative supported legislation deemed liberal (e.g., the Affordable Care Act”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bonica 2019 source
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They estimate that import competition raises support for protectionist trade bills by an equal extent in safe Democratic and safe Republican districts, and about twice as much in competitive districts.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Feigenbaum and Hall 2015 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our work differs from existing literature by documenting an ideological realignment that manifests itself in a wide range of outcomes beyond vote shares, and includes patterns of polarization rather than a uniform shift in ideology.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the evidence we find across multiple domains supports the inference that the China trade shock was a causal contributor to the post-2000 ideological realignment, it would be premature to view this evidence as dispositive.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Based on the documented connection between Fox News and conservative politics (DellaVigna and Kaplan 2007; Martin and Yurukoglu 2017), we use viewership of the channel as an indication of household demand for partisan media content.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Changes in Cable News Viewing Habits of Households
What the sources say
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“As this occurs, the losers from globalization become more protectionist and reduce their demands for redistribution.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gennaioli and Tabellini 2019 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Adverse economic shocks in this setting can heighten cultural identity at the expense of class identity, or vice versa, with potentially unconventional effects on policy.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gennaioli and Tabellini 2019 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The broad body of evidence that we evaluate suggests that trade shocks favored conservative views and politicians overall, where these gains came at the expense of centrist rather than left-wing forces, and reflected an ideological repositioning of majority-White versus majority-non-White regions.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Basic versions of CF scores assume that a politician's ideology is time-invariant even over a decades-long tenure in Congress, which is unappealing for our analysis that studies changes in ideology over time.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Changes in the Ideology of Campaign Contributors and Congress Members
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Although we cannot definitively separate resource-based versus identity-based explanations for the political outcomes we observe, both the Gennaioli-Tabellini and Grossman-Helpman frameworks make a prediction that is not directly addressed by resource-based approaches, which is that trade shocks increase support for protectionism, an implication strongly confirmed by Feigenbaum and Hall (2015).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Feigenbaum and Hall 2015 source
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Extending this reasoning outside the (exclusive) realm of trade policy, Gennaioli and Tabellini (2019) studies the interplay between economic and social policy in a setting where low-and high-income voters may shift allegiances between either a class-based identity, where taxation and redistribution are salient, or a culture-based identity, where nationalist and tribal sentiments are foregrounded.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gennaioli and Tabellini 2019 source
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In concert, rightward and leftward shifts in aggregate contributions by individual donors have combined with a rightward shift in noncorporate donors and a decline in (relatively moderate) corporate donations to generate the polarization of campaign finance seen in Figure 2.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Share of contributions by donor ideology
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Because adverse trade shocks increase local uptake of government transfers (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a) and reduce local tax revenues (Feler and Senses 2015), they are likely to intensify competition for government funds.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Feler and Senses 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“When analyzing 2002 to 2010, we study a period that spans the primary force of the China trade shock (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2016; Brandt et al. 2017), and within which district boundaries are largely stable.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > II. Measuring Local Economic and Political Change
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2016; Brandt et al. 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“In a break with long-standing convention in network TV programming, Fox News, since its launch in 1996, has openly supported Republican politicians and viewpoints and opposed Democratic ones.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Changes in Cable News Viewing Habits of Households
What the sources say
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Glaeser, Ponzetto, and Shapiro (2005) formalizes this intuition in a model where politicians deploy strategic extremism (e.g., inflaming wedge issues) to amplify cultural identification and thereby raise turnout among core supporters.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Glaeser, Ponzetto, and Shapiro 2005 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Gennaioli and Tabellini (2019) illustrates one scenario where, as globalization accelerates, the locus of group identity switches from class conflict to nationalist versus cosmopolitan (cultural) conflict.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gennaioli and Tabellini 2019 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To purge the considerable noise caused by redistricting, we compute changes in outcome variables that omit any two-year period during which a district changed its boundaries.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > C. Adjusting for Redistricting
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because China's market-oriented reforms accelerated with its WTO accession in 2001 and had largely run their course by the end of the 2000s, we define our measure of the China trade shock in (1) and our instrument for this shock in (2) to span the period 2002 to 2010.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“China's lowering of trade barriers (Bai, Krishna, and Ma 2017), dismantling of the constraints associated with central planning (Naughton 2007; Hsieh and Song 2015), and accession to the WTO (Pierce and Schott 2016; Handley and Limão 2017) have contributed to an immense increase in the country's manufacturing productivity and a concomitant rise in the country's manufacturing exports (Hsieh and Oss”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bai, Krishna, and Ma 2017; Naughton 2007; Hsieh and Song 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In our main specifications, we control for the start-of-period manufacturing share within CZs so as to focus on variation in exposure to trade arising from differences in industry mix within local manufacturing.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In all outcomes we have considered, these rightward shifts are concentrated among non-Hispanic Whites, with small, zero, or countervailing effects among Hispanics and non-Whites.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We control for CZ, age-race group and time-period main effects ( γ j , γ g , γ t ) and interact the age-race-group indicators with the time dummy ( γ g × 1[t = t 2 ] ) to allow for time trends in TV preferences within these groups.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“implies that they must diminish market shares for CNN and (or) MSNBC”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our evidence on the ideological composition of campaign donors supports the inference that a broad political realignment occurred in trade-exposed locations in the first decade of the 2000s, as trade pressure was rising, and that it persisted through 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“CNN and MSNBC viewers favored the Democratic over the GOP presidential candidate by 32 percent and 28 percent, respectively, in 2004, and by the wider margins of 47 percent and 70 percent, respectively, in 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites FiveThirtyEight.com
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the percentage of Fox News viewers who voted for the GOP presidential candidate exceeded the percentage of viewers who voted for the Democratic candidate by the stunning margins of 62 percent in 2004 and 66 percent in 2016.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > III. Impact of Trade Shocks on Political Expression
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites FiveThirtyEight.com
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An issue for the estimation is that realized US imports from China in (1) may be correlated with industry import-demand shocks.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Local Labor Market Exposure to Trade
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The periods ending in 2012, 2014, and 2016 include elections based on congressional districts whose boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 Census.Because of the need to match county-congressional-district cells to CZs across periods of redistricting, as discussed in Section IIC, outcomes for these later time periods may be measured with more noise.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These patterns manifest in a rightward shift of the media-viewing habits of US adults, greater polarization in the ideological orientation of campaign contributors, and net gains in the number of conservative GOP representatives, which come largely at the cost of moderate Democrats.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While it would be unwarranted based on this evidence to conclude that the China trade shock is the original or fundamental cause of three decades of growing US political polarization, our analysis of the China trade shock highlights a nuance masked by aggregate trends: the connection between economic and political polarization may arise not entirely from overarching secular changes in the US”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: There is a paucity of previous evidence that substantiates a causal impact of specific economic shocks on political polarization.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A side benefit of examining voting in presidential contests is that the time-varying geographic structure of congressional districts does not apply to presidential elections.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > V. Impact of Trade Shocks on Presidential Elections
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We repeat the caveat that splitting on subcategories raises the risk of false positives.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The net result is that although more ideologically extreme members of both parties gain office, it is the GOP that gains seats.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in locations with a majority non-White and Hispanic electorate, liberal Democrats pull support from moderates of their own party, meaning that wins by liberal Democrats do not increase Democrat win rates overall”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These results align with the noted demise of moderate congressional legislators in recent decades (e.g., Layman et al. 2006).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Layman et al. 2006 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This notional exercise highlights the relevance of a trade-induced shift in party vote shares in presidential elections, which are more closely contested than most congressional elections.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > V. Impact of Trade Shocks on Presidential Elections
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the 1990s and especially the 2000s, greater polarization is also evident in the content of political speech used by Democratic and Republican legislators (Gentzkow, Shapiro, and Taddy 2019).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gentzkow, Shapiro, and Taddy 2019 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in locations with a White non-Hispanic majority voter pool, GOP conservatives who gain at moderates' expense pull support across party lines and thereby increase the likelihood of a GOP win”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Bonica (2016) shows that whereas corporate political action committees tend to have moderate CF scores, the scores of corporate executives and directors are decidedly more ideological, with a strong majority of these elites giving to GOP candidates and having relatively high (i.e., conservative) CF scores.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bonica 2016 source
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In all regressions we include the full set of controls for initial economic conditions, political conditions, and demographic characteristics, matching the specification in column 5 of Table 3.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This finding is consistent with the classic quiescence hypothesis in political science(Edelman 1971), which views low voter turnout as indicative of voter satisfaction, and conversely, implies that rising voter dissatisfaction will spur turnout.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Edelman 1971
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The rise in political polarization appears causally unrelated to the structure of primary elections, rule changes in Congress, gerrymandering, or immigration(Gelman 2009; McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2009, 2016;Barber and McCarty 2015).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Gelman 2009
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2009, 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber and McCarty 2015 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across a broad range of outcomes, growing import competition from China has contributed either to a shift to the political right, or to a polarization where both liberal and conservative forces gain relative to moderates.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: There is a paucity of previous evidence that substantiates a causal impact of specific economic shocks on political polarization.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The paradox of converging popular beliefs about the source of economic challenges accompanied by diverging beliefs about appropriate political responses is consistent with theoretical models that connect economic adversity to in-group/ out-group identification, as motivated in part by group-based resource competition or opportunistic use of political extremism by political entrepreneurs.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Observations are weighted by a county-district cell's share in the total year-2000 voting age population of a district, so that each district has a total weight of 1.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Presidential elections by contrast provide a setting in which all localities simultaneously choose among the same set of candidates.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > V. Impact of Trade Shocks on Presidential Elections
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Standard errors are two-way clustered on CZs and congressional districts.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Campaign Donors
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We read our evidence above as supporting the interpretation that trade shocks have intensified political partisanship: raising both voter turnout and individual-level campaign contributions, and spurring majority-and minority-dominated areas to respond in ideologically opposing directions, seen both in campaign contributions and votes for non-centrist candidates.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > B. Ideology of Congressional Election Winners
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In summary, greater trade exposure leads to sizable increases in the likelihood of GOP victory in majority-White non-Hispanic congressional districts from 2002-2010 forward but not in majority-minority districts.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > A. Campaign Competitiveness, Party Vote Shares, and Party Win Percentages
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Other factors related to polarization include intensified media partisanship (DellaVigna and Kaplan 2007; Levendusky 2013; Prior 2013) and stronger ideological sorting of voters by party(Levendusky 2009).”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Charles and Stephens (2013) shows that US counties with lower growth of employment and wages experience greater electoral turnout.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Charles and Stephens 2013 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Feigenbaum and Hall (2015) reports that through the Congress elected in 2008, trade-exposed districts had no greater likelihood of a contested primary, no greater likelihood of a loss by the incumbent candidate, and no lower vote share for the incumbent candidate.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Feigenbaum and Hall 2015 source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“the authors observe that elected legislators did not systematically adjust their voting behavior in Congress apart from greater support for protectionist bills.”
§ Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure > VI. Concluding Remarks
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Feigenbaum and Hall 2015 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
China's share of world manufacturing exports surged from 4.8 percent in 2000 to 15.1 percent in 2010.
“China's share of world manufacturing exports surged from 4.8 percent in 2000 to 15.1 percent in 2010.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Majority White non-Hispanic districts vastly outnumber majority-minority districts.
“Of course, majority White non-Hispanic districts vastly outnumber majority-minority districts.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The non-US import exposure instrument affects local US political outcomes only through its effect on US import exposure.
“To identify the causal effect of rising Chinese import exposure on local-level political outcomes, we employ an instrumental-variables strategy that accounts for the potential endogeneity of US trade exposure.”
“we instrument the measured import-exposure variable ΔI P jτ cu with a non-US exposure variable ΔI P jτ co that is constructed using data on industry-level growth of Chinese exports to other high-income markets:”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Higher campaign donations indicate more fiercely contested campaigns.
“If higher donations indicate more fiercely contested campaigns, then these results suggest that greater trade exposure increases campaign intensity.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The China trade shock had almost entirely unfolded by 2008.
“by which point the China trade shock itself had almost entirely unfolded.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The full impact of the 2002-2010 China trade shock was yet to be felt during 2002-2004 and 2002-2006, and China's reform-driven export boom was largely complete from 2002-2008 onward.
“During 2002-2004 and 2002-2006, the full impact of the 2002-2010 China trade shock is yet to be felt; for the 2002-2008 and 2002-2010 periods forward, China's reform-driven export boom is largely complete.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Wedge issues in the United States divide voters along racial and ethnic lines.
“Under the plausible supposition that wedge issues in the United States divide voters along racial and ethnic lines”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is a paucity of previous evidence that substantiates a causal impact of specific economic shocks on political polarization.
“Yet, there is a paucity of previous evidence that substantiates a causal impact of specific economic shocks on political polarization.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the 2000s and 2010s, nearly all senior executives and directors of Fortune 500 companies gave to political campaigns.
“In the 2000s and 2010s, nearly all senior executives and directors of Fortune 500 companies gave to political campaigns.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.
“To a first approximation, China's economic growth during the 1990s and 2000s generated a substantial shock to the supply of US imports but only a modest change in the demand for US exports.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Autor et al. (2020) and Colantone and Stanig (2018 a ) establish a causal link between the China (import competition) shock and (i) a rise of political polarization in the U.S.”
From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Autor et al. (2020)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Party-specific CF-score standard deviations are reversed
MinorThe text assigns the 1992 standard deviations of 0.20 to Republicans and 0.26 to Democrats; Figure 3's note assigns those values to the opposite parties.
“The initial mean CF score for GOP congressional legislators was 0.40 ( σ = 0.20 ), whereas that for Democrats was -0.23 ( σ = 0.26 ).”
“The initial mean CF score for congressional legislators was 0.40 ( σ = 0.26 ) and -0.23 ( σ = 0.20 ) for Republicans and Democrats, respectively, in 1992.”
Fox News estimate is attributed to the wrong table column
MinorThe text assigns a roughly 10.5-point Fox News estimate to column 5 of Table 2, but column 5 reports 8.32. The roughly 10.5-point estimate appears in column 6.
“Once we include the full set of controls for economic and political conditions in column 5, the trade-shock impact rises to 10.5 percentage points ( t = 2.00 )”
“| ΔCZ import penetration × [t = 2012] | 2.86 | 5.87 | 5.09 | 7.31 | 8.32 | 10.48 |”
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Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset
Alesina, A., Furceri, D., Ostry, J. D., Papageorgiou, C., & Quinn, D. P. (2023) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvad075 · Cited by 41
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““Brexit” in the UK, Trump’s victory in the US, and the contemporaneous rise of right-wing nativist populism in the European “North” and left-wing redistributionist populism in the European “South” can all be viewed through the same prism of a populist backlash against the “straitjacket” of economic globalization and p…”
BackgroundThe Political Economy of Deep Integration
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“…both old and new, for example, in Latin America (Dornbusch and Edwards 1990; Edwards 2019) and the Trump administration and Brexit (Dent 2020; Autor et al. 2020)—this article demonstrates that populism does not necessarily culminate in macroeconomic imbalances and trade protectionism (the…”
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Lange, M. (2021) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2020.12.005 · Cited by 38
Does globalisation alleviate polarisation?
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“Furthermore, Autor et al. (2020) show that rising Chinese import penetration is associated with increasing market share for the Fox News channel, stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions, and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress.”
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Milner, H. V. (2021) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqab056 · Cited by 35
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Rebechi, A., & Rohde, N. (2022) · Review of Income and Wealth · doi:10.1111/roiw.12599 · Cited by 34
“Economic insecurity has also been found to exacerbate social problems or amplify pre-existing cultural fractures, for example anti-immigration backlash due to the “China shock” (Autor et al. , 2020; Cerrato et al. , 2018; Colantone & Stanig, 2018a).”
BackgroundWhen Rural and Urban Become “Us” versus “Them”: How a Growing Divide is Reshaping American Politics
Brown, T. E., Mettler, S. B., & Puzzi, S. (2021) · The Forum · doi:10.1515/for-2021-2029 · Cited by 34
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Calderon, A., Fouka, V., & Tabellini, M. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28965 · Cited by 32
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Anderson, K. (2022) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12726 · Cited by 32
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Baccini, L., Osgood, I., & Weymouth, S. J. (2019) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-019-09349-x · Cited by 29
Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war
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Steiner, N. D., & Harms, P. (2021) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2021.2002925 · Cited by 36
“…consequences of (Chinese) import competition, our study is innovative in at least three important respects: First, while previous research (Autor et al., 2020; Colantone & Stanig, 2018a, 2018b; Dippel et al., 2015; Malgouyres, 2017) provides compelling evidence that local import shocks…”
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“Instead of globalisation in general, economists engage in testing the local labour-mar-ket effects of trade exposure from foreigners on populism (Autor et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialMobile Internet and Political PolarizationPreprint
Melnikov, N. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3937760 · Cited by 34
“, 2019; Guess, 2021); that the increase in polarization can partly be explained by factors unrelated to the internet (Autor et al., 2020; Boxell, 2020); that the ideological gap increased primarily among individuals who are less likely to be active internet users (Boxell, Gentzkow and Shapiro, 2017); that exposure to…”
BackgroundBaltz, M. J. (2022) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2021.2022322 · Cited by 29
“winning swing states that were once major manufacturing hubs can be traced to these declines (Rodrik, 2018), a political response that has been building over several decades (Dorn et al., 2020).”
BackgroundLocal Effects of Global Capital Flows: A China Shock in the U.S. Housing Market
Li, Z., Shen, L. S., & Zhang, C. (2023) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhad067 · Cited by 34
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Self-citationService Firms in the Politics of US Trade Policy
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“Aggregate shocks can have spatially heterogeneous effects (Autor et al. 2020).”
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Stiglitz, J. E., & Kanbur, R. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198799580.003.0023 · Cited by 25
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“The literature on the China Shock has documented both the economic impact (Autor, Dorn and Hanson 2016, De Lyon and Pessoa 2021) and the political reaction (Autor, Dorn, Hanson and Majlesi 2020, Colatone and Staig 2018).”
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BackgroundInfluentialIndustrial Policy for the Sustainable Development Goals
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Dahl, G. B., Lu, R., & Mullins, W. (2022) · American Economic Review Insights · doi:10.1257/aeri.20210485 · Cited by 23
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Hoen, M. F., Markussen, S., & Røed, K. (2021) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-021-00851-4 · Cited by 18
The ‘China Shock’ revisited: insights from value added trade flows
Jakubik, A., & Stolzenburg, V. (2020) · Journal of Economic Geography · doi:10.1093/jeg/lbaa029 · Cited by 18
Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes
Bez, C., Bosetti, V., Colantone, I., & Zanardi, M. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01789-z · Cited by 21
Betrayed by the Elites: How Corruption Amplifies the Political Effects of Recessions
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“…extreme-right parties (Halla et al., 2017), of globalization on polarization in the US and on the vote for extreme parties in Europe (Funke et al., 2016; Autor et al., 2020; Dippel et al., 2021), and of austerity on the vote for far-right parties (Galofré-Vilà et al., 2021; Dal Bó et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialDonald Trump and the Lessons of East-Central European Populism
Deegan‐Krause, K. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108692793.004 · Cited by 18
Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade LiberalizationPreprint
Ogeda, P. M., Ornelas, E., & Soares, R. R. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3969574 · Cited by 18
“Many other studies in the literature that explore the link between trade shocks and electoral outcomes include similar variables (Autor et al., 2020; Che et al., 2020; Dippel et al., 2021).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialTwitter’s Role in Digital Democracy, Post-Truth, and Political Polarization
Yeğen, C., Ayhan, B., & Demir, Y. (2022) · Romanian Journal of Communication and Public Relations · doi:10.21018/rjcpr.2022.2.343 · Cited by 21
Misinformation, Economic Threat, and Public Support for International Trade
Flynn, D. J., Horiuchi, Y., & Zhang, D. (2018) · Review of International Political Economy · doi:10.1080/09692290.2020.1824931 · Cited by 17
“For instance, trade integration – especially trade with China – has exerted a large impact on U.S. labor markets, roll-call behavior in Congress, and legislative elections (D. H. Autor et al., 2013; D. Autor et al., 2020; Feigenbaum & Hall, 2015).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G., & Majlesi, K.
- Affiliations
- Pew Research Center (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Center for Economic and Policy Research (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2020-10-01
- Volume
- 110
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 3139-3183
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2522247035
- Semantic Scholar
- fecb985ed39b8237b84a31a1489b73955f130190
- Cited by
- 1,063
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 193 · 2024: 202 · 2023: 168 · 2022: 120 · 2021: 135 · 2020: 61
- FWCI
- 420.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1227334)
- Russell Sage Foundation
- Smith Richardson Foundation
- Sid W. Richardson Foundation
- Sage Foundation
- Accenture
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (155804, 154446)
- Russian Science Foundation
- University of California, San Diego
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
- Keywords
- political polarization, import competition, trade exposure, ideological realignment, US presidential election, congressional elections, Fox News, campaign contributions, China trade, local labor markets, commuting zones, political economy of trade
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