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Cited by 196

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

Jones, Charles I.·2022·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.20201605
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Abstract

In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy. (JEL I12, J11, J13, O41)

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Citations

Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Christiaans Thomas, 2011, Economics Bulletin, 31, 2667
  2. Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  3. Jones, Charles I. 2003. "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth." In Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, edited by Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Woodford, 498-521. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  4. Jones, Charles I. 2022b. "Replication Data for: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population." American Economic Association [publisher], Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. https://doi.org/10.3886/E176683V1. · DOI
  5. 10.1016/j.red.2009.12.002 · DOI
  6. Segerstrom Paul, 1998, American Economic Review, 88, 1290

Cited by

See all 196

Metadata

Authors
Jones, C. I.
Affiliations
Stanford University, Graduate School of Business and NBER (email: )
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2022-11-01
Volume
112
Issue
11
Pages
3489-3527
ISSN
0002-8282
DOI
10.1257/aer.20201605
Cited by
196
References
48
Language
en

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