The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity
Abstract
Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)
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Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Maestas, Nicole, Kathleen J. Mullen, and David Powell. 2023. "Replication data for The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity." American Economic Association [publisher], Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. https://doi.org/10.38886/E173781V1. · DOI
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Cao, M., Zhao, S., Ma, Y., & Lv, H. (2024) · Asia Pacific Journal of Human Resources · doi:10.1111/1744-7941.12410 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Impact of Investment on Labour Productivity in Azerbaijan's Chemical and Petrochemical Industry
Ismayilov, V., Gafarov, N., & Valiyeva, S. (2024) · Qubahan Academic Journal · doi:10.48161/qaj.v4n2a211 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Özbek, S., & Özbek, B. (2024) · Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi · doi:10.24181/tarekoder.1472242 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Liu, Y., Wang, Y., Guo, G., et al. (2025) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1495608 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
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Hosoya, K. (2023) · Journal of Macroeconomics · doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103506 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
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Debt Sustainability in the Context of Population Ageing: A Risk Management Approach
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How does internet use affect the sense of gain in older adults? A moderated mediation model
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Extracting Structured Labor Market Information from Job Postings with Generative AI
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Population Aging and Bank Risk-takingPreprint
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Demographic Aging and the New Keynesian Phillips CurvePreprint
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Minimum wage, labor productivity, and employment promotion
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Assessment of Demographic Profile of European Union Countries
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Do Patents Drive Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Selected Economies
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The effect of population ageing on the shadow economy: evidence from China
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Population aging and robot adoption: evidence from China
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What Education Cannot Equalize: Segregated Social Networks and Media in Stratified Reproduction
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How population aging impacts the perception of national security and military spending
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- Authors
- Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., & Powell, D.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Oregon (US)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2023-04-01
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 306-332
- ISSN
- 1945-7707 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-7715
- OpenAlex
- W3148575479
- Cited by
- 318
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 75 · 2025: 129 · 2024: 81 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 65.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Journal Macroeconomics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Demography › Retirement, Disability, and Employment
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- population aging, economic growth, GDP per capita, labor productivity, labor force growth, job creation, labor compensation, wages
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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