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Cited by 1,794Family Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition

Lesthaeghe, Ron·2010·Population and Development Review
DOI 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
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Abstract

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.

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Authors
Lesthaeghe, R.
Venue
Population and Development Review
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2010-06
Volume
36
Issue
2
Pages
211-251
ISSN
  • 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
  • 1728-4457
DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
OpenAlex
W2044668978
Cited by
1,794
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 107 · 2025: 164 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 161 · 2020: 145 · 2019: 109 · 2018: 166 · 2017: 105 · 2016: 128 · 2015: 98 · 2014: 94 · 2013: 58 · 2012: 49
FWCI
131.07
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 15 d)
Locations
  • Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords
second demographic transition, fertility postponement, total fertility rate, fertility restoration, delayed marriage, cohabitation, values orientation, European fertility trends, Southern Europe
MeSH terms
Cultural Characteristics, Demography, Family Characteristics, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Public Health, Social Change, Social Mobility, Population Groups, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century

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