Cited by 305Air Quality and Health ImpactsAtmospheric chemistry and aerosolsIndoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure

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Updated Global Estimates of Respiratory Mortality in Adults ≥30Years of Age Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure

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Malley, Christopher S., Henze, Daven K., Kuylenstierna, Johan C.I., Vallack, Harry W., Davila, Yanko, Anenberg, Susan C., Turner, Michelle C., Ashmore, Mike R.·2017·Environmental Health Perspectives

DOI 10.1289/ehp1390PMC PMC5880233

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Abstract

Background: Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3) exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been used to estimate global O3-attributable mortality in adults. Updated relative risk estimates are now available for the same cohort based on an expanded study population with longer follow-up. Objectives: We estimated the global burden and spatial distribution of respiratory mortality attributable to long-term O3 exposure in adults ≥30y of age using updated effect estimates from the ACS CPS-II cohort. Methods: We used GEOS-Chem simulations (2×2.5º grid resolution) to estimate annual O3 exposures, and estimated total respiratory deaths in 2010 that were attributable to long-term annual O3 exposure based on the updated relative risk estimates and minimum risk thresholds set at the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the most recent CPS-II analysis. These estimates were compared with attributable mortality based on the earlier CPS-II analysis, using 6-mo average exposures and risk thresholds corresponding to the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the earlier study population. Results: We estimated 1.04–1.23 million respiratory deaths in adults attributable to O3 exposures using the updated relative risk estimate and exposure parameters, compared with 0.40–0.55 million respiratory deaths attributable to O3 exposures based on the earlier CPS-II risk estimate and parameters. Increases in estimated attributable mortality were larger in northern India, southeast China, and Pakistan than in Europe, eastern United States, and northeast China. Conclusions: These findings suggest that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation policies, and health implications of climate change-driven changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously thought. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1390

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“High O3 concentration harms human health (Jerrett et al 2009, Malley et al 2017) and reduces crop yields (Yue et al 2017, Mills et al 2018).”
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Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh
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“…premature deaths attributable to air pollution exposure may also be underestimated in this study because exposure to other pollutants (e.g. ozone, (Malley et al., 2017a) was not taken into account, or non-fatal health outcomes associated with air pollution exposure (Anenberg et al., 2018; Malley…”
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“Tropospheric ozone can also affect human health and agricultural yields (Kampa and Castanas, 2008), and was recently suggested to cause 1.2 million premature deaths per year (Malley et al., 2017).”
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Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China
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“For this study, a log-linear exposure-response function (figure S8) was selected since it is most commonly applied in health impact assessments (e.g. Anenberg et al 2010, Silva et al 2013, Silva et al 2016, Malley et al 2017, Shindell et al 2018).”
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Sex Differences in Pulmonary Eicosanoids and Specialized Pro-Resolving Mediators in Response to Ozone Exposure
Yaeger, M. J., Reece, S. W., Kilburg-Basnyat, B. J., Hodge, M. X., Pal, A., Dunigan, K., Luo, B., You, D. J., Bonner, J. C., Spangenburg, E. E., et al. (2021) · Toxicological Sciences · doi:10.1093/toxsci/kfab081 · Cited by 57
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“As shown in sensitivity analysis in earlier studies (Malley et al 2017), ozone health effects are highly sensitive to the threshold levels assumed: e.g. 10, 25, 27.7, 31.1, 33.3, 35, 41.9 ppb.”
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Impacts of global NO x inversions on NO 2 and ozone simulations
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“Tropospheric ozone (O3) is an important atmospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas (Monks et al., 2015) and is estimated to be responsible for over one million respiratory deaths annually (Malley et al., 2017).”
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Impact of halogen chemistry on summertime air quality in coastal and continental Europe: application of the CMAQ model and implications for regulation
Li, Q., Borge, R., Sarwar, G., de la Paz, D., Gantt, B., Domingo, J., Cuevas, C. A., & Saiz‐Lopez, A. (2019) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-19-15321-2019 · Cited by 49
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Planetary Health
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“O3 is a strong oxidant and air pollutant damaging human health (Brunekreef and Holgate, 2002; Jerrett et al., 2009; Malley et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2016), ecosystems and agricultural crops (Fowler et al., 2009; Maas and Grennfelt, 2016; Mills et al., 2011; Pleijel et al., 2018), whilst also…”
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Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015
Seltzer, K. M., Shindell, D. T., Kasibhatla, P. S., & Malley, C. S. (2020) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020 · Cited by 45
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“‘Though only a fraction of 1% of China’s total population, this number of avoided premature deaths is a significant fraction (onequarter to one-third) of the estimated total number of annual premature deaths attributed to ozone in present-day worldwide (1.04–1.23 million) in Malley et al (2017).”
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Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging
Chen, L., Liao, H., Zhu, J., Li, K., Bai, Y., Yue, X., Yang, Y., Hu, J., & Zhang, M. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159972 · Cited by 42
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Authors: Malley, C. S., Henze, D. K., Kuylenstierna, J. C. I., Vallack, H. W., Davila, Y., Anenberg, S. C., Turner, M. C., & Ashmore, M. R.
Affiliations: Stockholm Environment Institute (GB)
University of Colorado Boulder (US)
Environmental Health Analytics, LLC., Washington, District of Columbia, USA
University of Ottawa (CA)
Corresponding author: Malley, Christopher S.
ORCID: Malley, Christopher S.
Henze, Daven K.
Vallack, Harry W.
Davila, Yanko
Anenberg, Susan C.
Turner, Michelle C.
Ashmore, Mike R.
Venue: Environmental Health Perspectives
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Published: 2017-08-16
Volume: 125
Issue: 8
Pages: 087021-087021
ISSN: 0091-6765 (ISSN-L)
1552-9924
DOI: 10.1289/ehp1390
PMC: PMC5880233
OpenAlex: W2752961258
Cited by: 305
References: 55
Citations by year: 2026: 16 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 1
FWCI: 12.24
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: public-domain
Locations: Environmental Health Perspectives (publishedVersion, public-domain)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion)
RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
Funders: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AQ26G)
Stockholm Environment Institute
Canadian Institutes of Health Research
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
Keywords: ozone exposure, respiratory mortality, attributable mortality, long-term air pollution, GEOS-Chem, spatial distribution of mortality, air quality policy, health co-benefits
MeSH terms: Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Air Pollutants, Environmental Exposure, Humans, Middle Aged, Ozone, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Risk, Global Health

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Updated Global Estimates of Respiratory Mortality in Adults ≥30Years of Age Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure

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