Evaluation of excess significance bias in animal studies of neurological diseases
Open accessAbstract
Animal studies generate valuable hypotheses that lead to the conduct of preventive or therapeutic clinical trials. We assessed whether there is evidence for excess statistical significance in results of animal studies on neurological disorders, suggesting biases. We used data from meta-analyses of interventions deposited in Collaborative Approach to Meta-Analysis and Review of Animal Data in Experimental Studies (CAMARADES). The number of observed studies with statistically significant results (O) was compared with the expected number (E), based on the statistical power of each study under different assumptions for the plausible effect size. We assessed 4,445 datasets synthesized in 160 meta-analyses on Alzheimer disease (n = 2), experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (n = 34), focal ischemia (n = 16), intracerebral hemorrhage (n = 61), Parkinson disease (n = 45), and spinal cord injury (n = 2). 112 meta-analyses (70%) found nominally (p≤0.05) statistically significant summary fixed effects. Assuming the effect size in the most precise study to be a plausible effect, 919 out of 4,445 nominally significant results were expected versus 1,719 observed (p<10⁻⁹). Excess significance was present across all neurological disorders, in all subgroups defined by methodological characteristics, and also according to alternative plausible effects. Asymmetry tests also showed evidence of small-study effects in 74 (46%) meta-analyses. Significantly effective interventions with more than 500 animals, and no hints of bias were seen in eight (5%) meta-analyses. Overall, there are too many animal studies with statistically significant results in the literature of neurological disorders. This observation suggests strong biases, with selective analysis and outcome reporting biases being plausible explanations, and provides novel evidence on how these biases might influence the whole research domain of neurological animal literature.
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Analysing the data using different methods and selectively reporting those with statistically significant results constitutes p-hacking and introduces bias in the literature.
“Analysing the data using different methods and selectively reporting those with statistically significant results constitutes p-hacking and introduces bias in the literature [90,94].”
From Reporting animal research: Explanation and elaboration for the ARRIVE guidelines 2.0 (2020) · cites this paper as [90]
Failure to disclose all the outcomes that were measured introduces bias in the literature, as positive outcomes are reported more often.
“Failure to disclose all the outcomes that were measured introduces bias in the literature, as positive outcomes (e.g., those statistically significant) are reported more often [88–91].”
From Reporting animal research: Explanation and elaboration for the ARRIVE guidelines 2.0 (2020) · cites this paper as [90]
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- Authors
- Tsilidis, K. K., Panagiotou, O. A., Sena, E. S., Aretouli, E., Evangelou, E., Howells, D. W., Salman, R. A.-S., Macleod, M. R., & Ioannidis, J. P. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Ioannina (GR)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Universidad de Deusto (ES)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Stanford Medicine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ioannidis, John P. A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLoS Biology
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-07-16
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e1001609
- ISSN
- 1544-9173 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-7885
- PMC
- PMC3712913
- OpenAlex
- W2136462620
- Cited by
- 295
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 31 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 10
- FWCI
- 39.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC/K000659/1, NC/L000970/1)
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Health Sciences › Veterinary › Small Animals › Animal testing and alternatives
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Academic integrity and plagiarism
- Keywords
- animal studies, neurological disorders, statistical power, selective reporting, small-study effects, Alzheimer's disease, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, focal cerebral ischemia, intracerebral hemorrhage, Parkinson's disease, spinal cord injury
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Disease Models, Animal, Nervous System Diseases, Research Design, Bias
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