Cited by 1,052Meta-analysis and systematic reviewsStatistical Methods in Epidemiologyscientometrics and bibliometrics research

The appropriateness of asymmetry tests for publication bias in meta-analyses: A large survey

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Ioannidis, J. P.A., Trikalinos, T. A.·2007·Canadian Medical Association Journal

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Statistical tests for funnel-plot asymmetry are common in meta-analyses. Inappropriate application can generate misleading inferences about publication bias. We aimed to measure, in a survey of meta-analyses, how frequently the application of these tests would be not meaningful or inappropriate. METHODS: We evaluated all meta-analyses of binary outcomes with é 3 studies in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2003, issue 2). A separate, restricted analysis was confined to the largest meta-analysis in each of the review articles. In each meta-analysis, we assessed whether criteria to apply asymmetry tests were met: no significant heterogeneity, I2 < 50%, é 10 studies (with statistically significant results in at least 1) and ratio of the maximal to minimal variance across studies > 4. We performed a correlation and 2 regression asymmetry tests and evaluated their concordance. Finally, we sampled 60 meta-analyses from print journals in 2005 that cited use of the standard regression test. RESULTS: A total of 366 of 6873 (5%) and 98 of 846 meta-analyses (12%) in the wider and restricted Cochrane data set, respectively, would have qualified for use of asymmetry tests. Asymmetry test results were significant in 7%-18% of the meta-analyses. Concordance between the 3 tests was modest (estimated k 0.33-0.66). Of the 60 journal meta-analyses, 7 (12%) would qualify for asymmetry tests; all 11 claims for identification of publication bias were made in the face of large and significant heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION: Statistical conditions for employing asymmetry tests for publication bias are absent from most meta-analyses; yet, in medical journals these tests are performed often and interpreted erroneously.

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  • Publication bias tests might be problematic for intranasal oxytocin studies due to small sample sizes resulting in insufficient statistical power and sample size variability for the tests to yield reliable and significant results.

    “However, publication bias tests might be problematic for IN-OT studies due to small sample sizes resulting in insufficient statistical power and sample size variability for the tests to yield reliable and significant results (26).”

    From Statistical and Methodological Considerations for the Interpretation of Intranasal Oxytocin Studies (2016) · cites this paper as [26]

    The Abstract says asymmetry tests have low power when a meta-analysis includes few studies and are not meaningful when studies have similar precision. The Interpretation likewise identifies too few studies and too little difference between study sizes as problems. The paper does not examine intranasal oxytocin studies or establish that their sample sizes have these characteristics; it also distinguishes few studies from small samples within studies. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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  • The small number of studies and significant heterogeneity precluded formal testing for publication bias.

    “The small number of studies and presence of significant heterogeneity precluded formal testing for publication bias[35].”

    From Daily Sitting Time and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis (2013) · cites this paper as [35]

  • Of 60 meta-analyses in 24 articles published in 2005 in which formal assessments were reported, most were based on fewer than ten studies; most displayed statistically significant heterogeneity; and many reviewers misinterpreted the results of the tests employed.

    “Of 60 meta-analyses in 24 articles published in 2005 in which formal assessments were reported, most were based on fewer than ten studies; most displayed statistically significant heterogeneity; and many reviewers misinterpreted the results of the tests employed [123].”
  • Evidence that smaller studies had larger estimated effects may suggest possible bias, but misinterpretation of such data is common.

    “Although evidence that smaller studies had larger estimated effects than large ones may suggest the possibility that the available evidence is biased, misinterpretation of such data is common [123].”

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Authors
Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Trikalinos, T. A.
Affiliations
Tufts University (US)
Venue
Canadian Medical Association Journal
Published
2007-04-10
Volume
176
Issue
8
Pages
1091-1096
ISSN
  • 0820-3946 (ISSN-L)
  • 1488-2329
OpenAlex
W2164093802
Cited by
1,052
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 49 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 81 · 2021: 73 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 62 · 2015: 64 · 2014: 68 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 39
FWCI
31.66
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Canadian Medical Association Journal (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
Keywords
publication bias, funnel plot asymmetry, meta-analysis, heterogeneity, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, binary outcomes, test concordance
MeSH terms
Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Periodicals as Topic, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Databases, Bibliographic, Publication Bias

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