CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 134Obesity, Physical Activity, DietGlobal Public Health Policies and EpidemiologyEconomic and Fiscal Studies

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

Open access
Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Zepeda-Tello, Rodrigo, Rodrigues, Eliane R., Colchero-Aragonés, Arantxa, Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba, Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo, Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio, Rivera-Dommarco, Juan +1 more·2017·PLoS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0176336PMC PMC5435164
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

STUDY QUESTION: What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? METHODS: Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0176336

Cites

50 of 50 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Voluntary agreements with industry to reduce sugar consumption have failed.

    “Voluntary agreements with industry to reduce sugar consumption have failed .100- 102”

    From Ending the neglect of global oral health: time for radical action. (2019) · cites this paper as [101]

    The Discussion and Conclusion address the effects of Mexico’s sugar-sweetened beverage tax, not voluntary agreements with industry. Searches for voluntary agreements and industry self-regulation found no passage assessing whether such agreements reduced sugar consumption or failed. (LLM, conf=0.75)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 52 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. [8]Cervera SB, Campos-Nonato I, Rojas R, Rivera-Dommarco J. Obesidad en México: epidemiología y políticas de salud para su control y prevención. Órgano Of la Acad Nac Med México, AC 2010; 146: 397– 407. 21384636

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Barrientos-Gutierrez, T., Zepeda-Tello, R., Rodrigues, E. R., Colchero-Aragonés, A., Rojas-Martínez, R., Lazcano-Ponce, E., Hernández-Ávila, M., Rivera-Dommarco, J., & Meza, R.
Affiliations
  • Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
  • Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
  • University of Michigan (US)
ORCID
Venue
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2017-05-17
Volume
12
Issue
5
Pages
e0176336
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0176336
PMC
PMC5435164
OpenAlex
W2615078013
Cited by
134
References
52
Citations by year
2026: 7 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 3
FWCI
10.53
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2018-01-11)
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • Bloomberg Family Foundation (P30DK092926)
  • Michigan Center for Translational Research (P30DK092926)
  • Harvard University (US) (Lown Scholarship)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Fiscal Studies
Keywords
sugar-sweetened beverage tax, obesity prevalence, body mass index, diabetes incidence, diabetes prevention, socioeconomic disparities, age-period-cohort model, microsimulation
MeSH terms
Adult, Aged, Body Weight, Carbonated Beverages, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Taxes, Models, Statistical, Dietary Sucrose

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review