Updating beliefs under perceived threat
Open accessAbstract
Humans are better at integrating desirable information into their beliefs than undesirable information. This asymmetry poses an evolutionary puzzle, as it can lead to an underestimation of risk and thus failure to take precautionary action. Here, we suggest a mechanism that can speak to this conundrum. In particular, we show that the bias vanishes in response to perceived threat in the environment. We report that an improvement in participants9 tendency to incorporate bad news into their beliefs is associated with physiological arousal in response to threat indexed by galvanic skin response and self-reported anxiety. This pattern of results was observed in a controlled laboratory setting (Experiment I), where perceived threat was manipulated, and in firefighters on duty (Experiment II), where it naturally varied. Such flexibility in how individuals integrate information may enhance the likelihood of responding to warnings with caution in environments rife with threat, while maintaining a positivity bias otherwise, a strategy that can increase well-being. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The human tendency to be overly optimistic has mystified scholars and lay people for decades: How could biased beliefs have been selected over unbiased beliefs? Scholars have suggested that although the optimism bias can lead to negative outcomes, including financial collapse and war, it can also facilitate health and productivity. Here, we demonstrate that a mechanism generating the optimism bias, namely asymmetric information integration, evaporates under threat. Such flexibility could result in enhanced caution in dangerous environments while supporting an optimism bias otherwise, potentially increasing well-being.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The optimism bias disappears when subjects perceive a threatening environment.
“This mech anism, also known as optimism bias, disappears when subjects perceive a threatening environment (Garrett et al., 2018).”
From Predictive coding in neuropsychiatric disorders: a systematic transdiagnostic review. (2025) · cites this paper as Garrett et al., 2018
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction
Sutton, R. S., & Barto, A. G. (1998) · IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks · doi:10.1109/tnn.1998.712192 · Cited by 27,225 · see citing works
Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction
Sutton, R. S., & Barto, A. (2005) · IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks · doi:10.1109/tnn.2004.842673 · Cited by 25,263 · see citing works
A neural substrate of prediction and reward
Schultz, W., Dayan, P., & Montague, P. R. (1997) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1593 · Cited by 9,388 · see citing works
Human agency in social cognitive theory.
Bandura, A. (1989) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.44.9.1175 · Cited by 8,263 · see citing works
Influence of life stress on depression: moderation by a polymorphism in the 5-HTT gene
Caspi, A., Sugden, K., Moffitt, T. E., Taylor, A., Craig, I. W., Harrington, H., McClay, J., Mill, J., Martin, J., Braithwaite, A., et al. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1083968 · Cited by 8,120 · see citing works
Illusion and well‐being: A social psychological perspective on mental health
Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. D. (1988) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193 · Cited by 7,814 · see citing works
Marteau, T. M., & Bekker, H. (1992) · British Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.2044-8260.1992.tb00997.x · Cited by 3,238 · see citing works
The neurobiology of stress and development.
Gunnar, M., & Quevedo, K. (2007) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.58.110405.085605 · Cited by 2,011 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Change in cortisol, which is suggested to reflect the HPA axis component of the stress response (Gunnar and Quevedo, 2007), did not relate to information integration for bad news (F(1,16) 0.”
BackgroundInfluentialBy Carrot or by Stick: Cognitive Reinforcement Learning in Parkinsonism
Frank, M. J., Seeberger, L. C., & O'Reilly, R. C. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1102941 · Cited by 1,964 · see citing works
Bechara, A., Tranel, D., Damasio, H., & Damasio, A. R. (1996) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/6.2.215 · Cited by 1,179 · see citing works
Cognitive bias and affective state
Harding, E. J., Paul, E. S., & Mendl, M. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/427312a · Cited by 835 · see citing works
How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality
Sharot, T., Korn, C. W., & Dolan, R. J. (2011) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2949 · Cited by 729 · see citing works
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)
Leigh, H. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56782-2_9129-1 · Cited by 706 · see citing works
The Good News-Bad News Effect: Asymmetric Processing of Objective Information about Yourself
Eil, D., & Rao, J. M. (2011) · American Economic Journal Microeconomics · doi:10.1257/mic.3.2.114 · Cited by 666 · see citing works
The evolution of overconfidence
JOHNSON, D. D. P., & Fowler, J. H. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10384 · Cited by 609 · see citing works
Cognitive Mechanisms of Treatment in Depression
Roiser, J. P., Elliott, R., & Sahakian, B. J. (2012) · Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1038/npp.2011.183 · Cited by 535 · see citing works
On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction.
Sherman, S. J. (1980) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.2.211 · Cited by 525 · see citing works
McKay, R. T., & Dennett, D. C. (2009) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x09990975 · Cited by 474 · see citing works
Working-memory capacity protects model-based learning from stress
Otto, A. R., Raio, C. M., Chiang, A., Phelps, E. A., & Daw, N. D. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312011110 · Cited by 472 · see citing works
Forming beliefs: Why valence matters
Sharot, T., & Garrett, N. (2016) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2015.11.002 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
Korn, C. W., Sharot, T., Walter, H., Heekeren, H. R., & Dolan, R. J. (2014) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291713001074 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events
Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J. (2006) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2005.07.001 · Cited by 307 · see citing works
Severe stress switches CRF action in the nucleus accumbens from appetitive to aversive
Lemos, J. C., Wanat, M. J., Smith, J. S., Reyes, B. A. S., Hollon, N. G., Bockstaele, E. J. V., Chavkin, C., & Phillips, P. E. M. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11436 · Cited by 304 · see citing works
Behavioural and neural characterization of optimistic reinforcement learning
Lefebvre, G., Lebreton, M. P., Meyniel, F., Bourgeois‐Gironde, S., & Palminteri, S. (2017) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0067 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
The Trier Social Stress Test protocol for inducing psychological stress.
Birkett, M. (2011) · Journal of Visualized Experiments · doi:10.3791/3238 · Cited by 285 · see citing works
Using skin conductance in judgment and decision making research
Figner, B., Murphy, R. O., Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M., Kühberger, A., & Ranyard, R. (2011) · UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Matheson, S. M., Asher, L., & Melissa Bateson, B. (2007) · Applied Animal Behaviour Science · doi:10.1016/j.applanim.2007.03.007 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Tiger, L. (1979) · DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence
Möbius, M., Niederle, M., Niehaus, P., & Rosenblat, T. (2011) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w17014 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?
Wiswall, M., & Zafar, B. (2015) · Journal of Human Capital · doi:10.1086/681542 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
How Dopamine Enhances an Optimism Bias in Humans
Sharot, T., Guitart‐Masip, M., Korn, C. W., Chowdhury, R., & Dolan, R. J. (2012) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2012.05.053 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Positively Biased Processing of Self-Relevant Social Feedback
Korn, C. W., Prehn, K., Park, S. Q., Walter, H., & Heekeren, H. R. (2012) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3016-12.2012 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Selectively altering belief formation in the human brain
Sharot, T., Ryota Kanai, C., Marston, D., Korn, C. W., Rees, G. E., & Dolan, R. J. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1205828109 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Stress alters personal moral decision making
Youssef, F. F., Dookeeram, K., Basdeo, V., Francis, E., Doman, M., Mamed, D., Maloo, S., Degannes, J., Dobo, L., Ditshotlo, P., et al. (2011) · Psychoneuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2011.07.017 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Stress potentiates decision biases: A stress induced deliberation-to-intuition (SIDI) model
Yu, R. (2016) · Neurobiology of Stress · doi:10.1016/j.ynstr.2015.12.006 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Losing the rose tinted glasses: neural substrates of unbiased belief updating in depression
Garrett, N., Sharot, T., Faulkner, P., Korn, C. W., Roiser, J. P., & Dolan, R. J. (2014) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2014.00639 · Cited by 174 · cited 10× · see citing works
“Threat eliminates asymmetric information integration Our results show that the acute threat manipulation eliminated the well established asymmetry in information integration (Sharot et al., 2011; Moutsiana et al., 2013; Garrett et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialTrait Pessimism Predicts Vulnerability to Stress-Induced Anhedonia in Rats
Ryguła, R., Hinchcliffe, J. K., & Popik, P. (2013) · Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1038/npp.2013.116 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Optimistic update bias holds firm: three tests of robustness following Shah et al
Garrett, N., & Sharot, T. (2017) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2016.10.013 · Cited by 123 · cited 3× · see citing works
“…self-reported anxiety significantly explained the variance in information integration parameters for bad news, B (F(1,22) 10.52, p 0.004, p 2 0.32, bi 0.05; Table 4), an effect that remained significant if estimation errors are also controlled for (F(1,21) 9.79, p 0.005; Garrett and Sharot, 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationHuman development of the ability to learn from bad news
Moutsiana, C., Garrett, N., Clarke, R. C., Lotto, R. B., Blakemore, S.-J., & Sharot, T. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1305631110 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Chlan, L. L., Savik, K., & Weinert, C. (2003) · Journal of Nursing Measurement · doi:10.1891/jnum.11.3.283.61269 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Age-dependent diet choice in an avian top predator
Rutz, C., Whittingham, M. J., & Newton, I. (2005) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3353 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental EvidencePreprint
Möbius, M., Niederle, M., Niehaus, P., & Rosenblat, T. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2285056 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Optimistic update bias increases in older age
Chowdhury, R., Sharot, T., Wolfe, T., Düzel, E., & Dolan, R. J. (2013) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291713002602 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Stress modulates reinforcement learning in younger and older adults.
Lighthall, N. R., Gorlick, M. A., Schoeke, A., Frank, M. J., & Mather, M. (2012) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0029823 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
The role of the neural reward circuitry in self-referential optimistic belief updates
Kuzmanovic, B., Jefferson, A., & Vogeley, K. T. (2016) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2016.02.014 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Stress increases aversive prediction error signal in the ventral striatum
Robinson, O. J., Overstreet, C. M., Charney, D. R., Vytal, K. E., & Grillon, C. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1213923110 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Social stress reactivity alters reward and punishment learning
Cavanagh, J. F., Frank, M. J., & Allen, J. J. B. (2010) · Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience · doi:10.1093/scan/nsq041 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Self‐specific Optimism Bias in Belief Updating Is Associated with High Trait Optimism
Kuzmanovic, B., Jefferson, A., & Vogeley, K. T. (2014) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.1849 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Chronic and Acute Stress Promote Overexploitation in Serial Decision Making
Lenow, J., Constantino, S., Daw, N., & Phelps, E. (2017) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3618-16.2017 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Adaptive learning of host preference in a herbivorous arthropod
Egas, M., & Sabelis, M. W. (2001) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00219.x · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Human Frontal–Subcortical Circuit and Asymmetric Belief Updating
Moutsiana, C., Charpentier, C. J., Garrett, N., Cohen, M. X., & Sharot, T. (2015) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1120-15.2015 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation
Kuzmanovic, B., & Rigoux, L. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01087 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
The Glass is Half-Full: Overestimating the Quality of a Novel Environment is Advantageous
Berger‐Tal, O., & Avgar, T. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0034578 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
How Robust Is the Optimistic Update Bias for Estimating Self-Risk and Population Base Rates?
Garrett, N., & Sharot, T. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0098848 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism
Kappes, A., Faber, N. S., Kahane, G., Savulescu, J., & Crockett, M. J. (2018) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797617737129 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
HOW PSYCHOLOGICAL PITFALLS GENERATED THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Shefrin, H. (2009) · doi:10.4324/9781315780931-29 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
The effect of stress on salivary cortisol in panic disorder patients
Stones, A., Groóme, D., Perry, D., Hucklebridge, F. H., & Evans, P. (1999) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/s0165-0327(98)00058-5 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
How Psychological Pitfalls Generated the Global Financial CrisisPreprint
Shefrin, H. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1523931 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious OptimismPreprint
Kappes, A., Crockett, M. J., Faber, N. S., Savulescu, J., & Kahane, G. (2018) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/na9db · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
When Beliefs Face Reality: An Integrative Review of Belief Updating in Mental Health and Illness
Κube, T., & Rozenkrantz, L. (2020) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691620931496 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Akesson, J., Ashworth-Hayes, S., Hahn, R. W., Metcalfe, R., & Rasooly, I. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27245 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Inattentive responding can induce spurious associations between task behaviour and symptom measures
Zorowitz, S., Solis, J., Niv, Y., & Bennett, D. (2023) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-023-01640-7 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic
Akesson, J., Ashworth-Hayes, S., Hahn, R. W., Metcalfe, R., & Rasooly, I. (2022) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1007/s11166-022-09375-y · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Rethinking post-traumatic stress disorder – A predictive processing perspective
Κube, T., Berg, M., Kleim, B., & Herzog, P. (2020) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2020.04.014 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Kube, T., Rozenkrantz, L., Rief, W., & Barsky, A. (2020) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2020.101829 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Sharot, T., Rollwage, M., Sunstein, C. R., & Fleming, S. M. (2022) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916221082967 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Bromberg-Martin, E. S., & Sharot, T. (2020) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2020.05.001 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Enhanced rationality in autism spectrum disorder
Rozenkrantz, L., D’Mello, A. M., & Gabrieli, J. D. E. (2021) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2021.05.004 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Anxiety increases information-seeking in response to large changes
Charpentier, C. J., Dezza, I. C., Vellani, V., Globig, L. K., Gädeke, M., & Sharot, T. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-10813-9 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Trudel, N., Scholl, J., Klein-Flügge, M. C., Fouragnan, E., Tankelevitch, L., Wittmann, M. K., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0929-3 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Socially Optimal Mistakes? Debiasing COVID-19 Mortality Risk Perceptions and Prosocial Behavior
Abel, M., Byker, T., & Carpenter, J. P. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.01.007 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Bottemanne, H., Morlaàs, O., Claret, A., Sharot, T., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2022) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.2996 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Everything is connected: Inference and attractors in delusions
Adams, R. A., Vincent, P., Benrimoh, D. A., Friston, K. J., & Parr, T. (2021) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2021.07.032 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Biased belief updating and suboptimal choice in foraging decisions
Garrett, N., & Daw, N. (2019) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16964-5 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Does the Coronavirus Epidemic Take Advantage of Human Optimism Bias?
Bottemanne, H., Morlaàs, O., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.02001 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Threat Prediction from Schemas as a Source of Bias in Pain Perception
Lim, M., O'Grady, C. B., Cane, D. B., Goyal, A., Lynch, M. E., Beyea, S., & Hashmi, J. A. (2020) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2104-19.2019 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Κube, T., Kirchner, L., Rief, W., Gärtner, T., & Glombiewski, J. A. (2019) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2019.103509 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution
Drobner, C. (2022) · American Economic Review Insights · doi:10.1257/aeri.20200829 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Rahardjo, W., Qomariyah, N. U., Mulyani, I., & Andriani, I. (2020) · Jurnal Psikologi Sosial · doi:10.7454/jps.2021.16 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Evidence accumulation is biased by motivation: A computational account
Gęsiarz, F., Cahill, D., & Sharot, T. (2019) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007089 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Is depression associated with reduced optimistic belief updating?
Hobbs, C., Vozarova, P., Sabharwal, A., Shah, P., & Button, K. (2022) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.190814 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
The (un)learning of social functions and its significance for mental health
Flechsenhar, A., Kanske, P., Krach, S., Korn, C. W., & Bertsch, K. (2022) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2022.102204 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Predictive coding in neuropsychiatric disorders: a systematic transdiagnostic review.
Qela, B., Damiani, S., De Santis, S., Groppi, F., Pichiecchio, A., Asteggiano, C., Brondino, N., Monteleone, A. M., Grassi, L., Politi, P., et al. (2025) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2025.106020 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Belief updating in bipolar disorder predicts time of recurrence
Ossola, P., Garrett, N., Sharot, T., & Marchesi, C. (2020) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.58891 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Neurocomputational mechanisms of affected beliefs
Müller‐Pinzler, L., Czekalla, N., Mayer, A. V., Schröder, A., Stolz, D. S., Paulus, F. M., & Krach, S. (2022) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-022-04165-3 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene
Polasky, S., Crépin, A., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., Peterson, G., Scheffer, M., Barrett, S. A., Daily, G. C., Ehrlich, P. R., et al. (2020) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biaa115 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-beneficial belief updating as a coping mechanism for stress-induced negative affect
Czekalla, N., Stierand, J., Stolz, D. S., Mayer, A. V., Voges, J. F., Rademacher, L., Paulus, F. M., Krach, S., & Müller‐Pinzler, L. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96264-0 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Optimism where there is none: Asymmetric belief updating observed with valence-neutral life events.
Burton, J. W., Harris, A., Shah, P., & Hahn, U. (2021) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104939 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
A guideline and cautionary Note: How to use the belief update task correctly
Sharot, T., & Garrett, N. (2022) · Methods in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.metip.2022.100091 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Gagne, C., Agai, S., Ramiro, C., Dayan, P., & Bishop, S. J. (2022) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010176 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Sympathetic involvement in time-constrained sequential foraging
Dundon, N. M., Garrett, N., Babenko, V., Cieslak, M., Daw, N. D., & Grafton, S. T. (2020) · Cognitive Affective & Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3758/s13415-020-00799-0 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Shared social identity and media transmission of trauma
Relihan, D. P., Jones, N. M., Holman, E. A., & Silver, R. C. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-33898-2 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Coronavirus : cerveau prédictif et gestion de la terreur
Bottemanne, H., Morlaàs, O., Schmidt, L., & Fossati, P. (2020) · L Encéphale · doi:10.1016/j.encep.2020.05.012 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Food safety in the aging population: Qualitative findings on what to communicate and how
Berger, N., Koch, S., Jungnickel, K., & Böl, G. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14069 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Κube, T., Wullenkord, M. C., Rozenkrantz, L., Krämer, P., Lieb, S., & Menzel, C. (2023) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12920 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Under Threat, Weaker Evidence Is Required to Reach Undesirable Conclusions
Globig, L. K., Witte, K., Feng, G., & Sharot, T. (2021) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.3194-20.2021 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Negative mood and optimism bias: An experimental investigation of sadness and belief updating
Karnick, A. T., Bauer, B. W., & Capron, D. W. (2023) · Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2023.101910 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Maftei, A., & Petroi, C. E. (2022) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1019298 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Brookes, O., Brown, C., Tarrant, C., Archer, J., Buckley, D., Buckley, L.-M., Clement, I., Evison, F., Smith, F. G., Gibbins, C., et al. (2019) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030679 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Luo, Y., Nian, J., Wei, B. A. O., ZHANG, J., Shouying, Z. H. A. O., Yun, P. A. N., Shuang, X. U., & ZHANG, Y. (2019) · Acta Psychologica Sinica · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1041.2020.00026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
A corticostriatal pathway mediating self-efficacy enhancement
Shany, O., Gurevitch, G., Gilam, G., Dunsky, N., Balter, S. R., Greental, A., Nutkevitch, N., Eldar, E., & Hendler, T. (2022) · npj Mental Health Research · doi:10.1038/s44184-022-00006-7 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Molins, F., Paz, M., Rozman, L., Hassen, N. B., & Serrano, M. Á. (2022) · Physiology & Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.physbeh.2022.113953 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Kirchner, L., Κube, T., D’Astolfo, L., Strahler, J., Herbstreit, R., & Rief, W. (2023) · Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2023.101859 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Bion, J., Brookes, O., Brown, C., Tarrant, C., Archer, J., Buckley, D., Buckley, L.-M., Clement, I., Evison, F., Smith, F., et al. (2020) · Health Services and Delivery Research · doi:10.3310/hsdr08320 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Beyond Belief Updating: A Framework for Self-Belief FormationPreprint
Krach, S., Müller‐Pinzler, L., Czekalla, N., Schröder, A., Wilhelm, I., Luebber, F., Rademacher, L., Stolz, D. S., Paulus, F. M., & Mayer, A. V. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/2y5tv · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Beuthin, O., Bhui, K. S., Yu, L., Shahid, S., Almidani, L., Bilalaga, M. M., Hussein, R., Harba, A., & Nasser, Y. (2023) · JMIR Research Protocols · doi:10.2196/47627 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Kube, T., Huhn, J., & Menzel, C. (2025) · British Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjso.12905 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Looking on the (B)right Side of Life: Cognitive Ability and Miscalibrated Financial Expectations
Dawson, C. (2023) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672231209400 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Mise à jour des croyances et congruence à l'humeur dans le trouble dépressif
Bottemanne, H., Frileux, S., Guesdon, A., & Fossati, P. (2021) · L Encéphale · doi:10.1016/j.encep.2021.06.015 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Henss, L., & Pinquart, M. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1127328 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Horowitz, J. B. (2021) · Journal of Institutional Economics · doi:10.1017/s1744137421000102 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Peng, X.-R., Bundil, I., Schulreich, S., & Li, S. (2023) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2023.120327 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Elucidating the role of the posterior medial frontal cortex in social conflict processing
Wake, S., Aoki, R., Nakahara, K., & Izuma, K. (2019) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2019.107124 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Dundon, N. M., Stuber, A., Bullock, T., Garcia, J. O., Babenko, V., Rizor, E. J., Yang, D., Giesbrecht, B., & Grafton, S. T. (2024) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2008-23.2024 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Herzog, P., Willems, H., Wirkner, J., Κube, T., Nazarenus, E., Glombiewski, J. A., Brakemeier, E., McNally, R. J., & Richter, J. H. (2025) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2025.104690 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Bottemanne, H., Morlaàs, O., Claret, A., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/zx5vr · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Beyond Pigou: Disclosure and the green transition of marketsPreprint
Manili, J. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4529222 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Laurin, A., Bottemanne, H., Bulteau, S., Haj, M. E., Sauvaget, A., & Deschamps, T. (2026) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2026.106546 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Karnick, A. T., & Brick, L. A. D. (2024) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2024.101937 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Zigdon, A., Lavenda, O., & Lewin, E. (2025) · Journal of Safety Science and Resilience · doi:10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.100228 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Islam, M., & Drobner, C. (2026) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/ueag026 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Talking the talk, not walking the walk: The coevolution of overconfidence and loss aversion
Dawson, C., & de Meza, D. (2026) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000644 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Expected exponential discounting in inter-temporal decision making
Rosenström, T. H., & Houston, A. I. (2025) · Journal of Mathematical Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jmp.2025.102927 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Large environmental changes reduce valence-dependent belief updating
Berón, J. C., Solovey, G., Ferrelli, I. A., Pedreira, M. E., & Fernández, R. S. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-61207-y · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Financial scarcity and financial avoidance: an eye-tracking and behavioral experiment
Hilbert, L. P., Noordewier, M., Seck, L., & van Dijk, W. V. (2024) · Psychological Research · doi:10.1007/s00426-024-02019-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Computational Mechanisms of Information-Seeking in Anxiety
Chou, K.-P., & Smith, R. S. (2024) · Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · doi:10.1007/7854_2024_552 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
On bias and balance: Updating agentic and communal self-beliefs in social anxiety and depression
Klein, Z., Zabag, R., Hay, D. E., Levy‐Gigi, E., & Gilboa‐Schechtman, E. (2025) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2025.104905 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Kushnirovich, N., & Lissitsa, S. (2024) · Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.3390/bs14030232 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Anxiety selectively increases information-seeking in response to large changesPreprint
Charpentier, C. J., Dezza, I. C., Vellani, V., Globig, L. K., Gädeke, M., & Sharot, T. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/n2puk · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Effects of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic on optimistically biased belief updatingPreprint
Khalid, I., Morlaàs, O., Bottemanne, H., Thonon, L., Costa, T. D., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.101157 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Lhardy, S., Guillet‐Descas, E., & Martinent, G. (2025) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire8040147 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Birkeland, M. S., Ormhaug, S. M., Hayes, A. M., & Jensen, T. K. (2025) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2025.104910 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ho, S. S., Jin, J., Ou, M., & Huang, N. M. (2026) · Online Information Review · doi:10.1108/oir-03-2025-0183 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Marciano, H., Kimhi, S., Eshel, Y., & Adini, B. B. (2026) · International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.ijchp.2026.100679 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Effects of cognitive load during lying and personal characteristics on attention
Goto, R., & Hakoda, Y. (2020) · Journal of Human Environmental Studies · doi:10.4189/shes.18.99 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Forecasting Honesty: An Investigation of the Middle Eastern Bicultural Mind
Pilotti, M., & Alaoui, K. E. (2023) · Knowledge · doi:10.3390/knowledge3010009 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Dricu, M., Bührer, S., Moser, D., & Aue, T. (2021) · International Review of Social Psychology · doi:10.5334/irsp.647
Right Frontal Gamma Transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation Modulates Optimism Biases
Yao, Z.-Q., Wei, J., Huang, G., Li, L.-L., Liang, Z., Zhang, L., Wu, H.-Y., Yuan, T.-F., Zhang, Z.-G., & Hu, X.-Q. (2024) · Neuroscience Bulletin · doi:10.1007/s12264-024-01307-x · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Garrett, N., & Sharot, T. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/hj9p2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Solovey, G., Usaj, A. R., Picco, S., Sued, M., Noste, M. E. S., Bavassi, L., Pedreira, M. E., & Fernández, R. S. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/at4r2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Effects of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic on optimistically biased belief updatingPreprint
Khalid, I., Morlaàs, O., Bottemanne, H., Thonon, L., Costa, T. D., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.101157.1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sympathetic and parasympathetic involvement in time constrained sequential foragingPreprint
Dundon, N. M., Garrett, N., Babenko, V., Cieslak, M., Daw, N. D., & Grafton, S. T. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/752493
Impact de la pandémie COVID-19 sur le raisonnement clinique des médecins
Du, T., Hanoul, C., Kemdem, A., Lemaitre, F., & Diawara, L. (2021) · Médecine Intensive Réanimation · doi:10.37051/mir-00066
Model sharing in the human medial temporal lobePreprint
Glitz, L., Juechems, K., Summerfield, C., & Garrett, N. (2021) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2021.06.23.449588
News Exposure and Psychological Adjustment
Glavač, T., Polhl, N., & Musil, B. (2022) · Psihologijske teme · doi:10.31820/pt.31.1.5
van Haeringen, E. S., Liistro, G., & Gerritsen, C. (2022) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-18192-4_33
Julianti, M. (2022) · Journal of Indonesian Psychological Science (JIPS) · doi:10.18860/jips.v3i2.18065
Effects of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic on optimistically biased belief updating
Khalid, I., Morlaàs, O., Bottemanne, H., Thonon, L., DaCosta, T., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.101157.3
Unraveling of Clean Technology: The Information Economics of Green TransitionsPreprint
Manili, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5035202
Trait-anxiety and belief updating: Exploring the role of negativity bias and contrast avoidance
Solovey, G., Usaj, A. R., Picco, S., Berón, J. C., Sued, M., Noste, M. E. S., Bavassi, L., Pedreira, M. E., & Fernández, R. S. (2025) · Cognitive Affective & Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3758/s13415-025-01282-4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Selektive Integration überzeugungskongruenter Informationen
Κube, T. (2025) · Psychologische Rundschau · doi:10.1026/0033-3042/a000714
Healing or Concealing: Educational Anxiety, Reflexivity, and Alternative Parenting Strategies
Jun, Z. (2024) · Chinese Education & Society · doi:10.1080/10611932.2025.2451990
Effects of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic on optimistically biased belief updatingPreprint
Khalid, I., Morlaàs, O., Bottemanne, H., Thonon, L., Costa, T. D., Fossati, P., & Schmidt, L. (2025) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.101157.2
Beliefs to Behavior or Behavior to Beliefs? On What Makes Intentions Reality
Moè, A. (2025) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2025.2482358
Morstead, T., Loo, N., Sin, N. L., & DeLongis, A. (2025) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127630
Huang, S., Mai, Y., Wu, X., Yang, R., Li, H., Zhong, H., Huang, W., & Zhao, J. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120608
Karnick, A. T., Fergerson, A. K., Buerke, M. L., Bauer, B. W., Howd, C., Iyer, R. K., Hughes, C. D., Brick, L. A. D., & Capron, D. W. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120857
Vrinzen, S., Everaert, J., & Salemink, E. (2026) · The Behavior Therapist · doi:10.1016/j.beth.2026.01.004
Schreiber, R. A., Grichnik, D., Shepherd, D. A., Wincent, J., Tobler, P. N., & Gvozdanovic, G. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6210581
- Authors
- Garrett, N., González-Garzón, A. M., Foulkes, L., Levita, L., & Sharot, T.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- University College London (GB)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Garrett, Neil
- Sharot, Tali
- Venue
- The Journal of Neuroscience
- Publisher
- Society for Neuroscience
- Published
- 2018-08-06
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 36
- Pages
- 7901-7911
- ISSN
- 0270-6474 (ISSN-L)
- 1529-2401
- PMC
- PMC6125815
- OpenAlex
- W2885599406
- Cited by
- 109
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 6
- FWCI
- 7.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Journal of Neuroscience (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
- Keywords
- optimism bias, positivity bias, threat perception, risk underestimation, skin conductance, physiological arousal, anxiety, firefighters, belief updating, precautionary behavior
- MeSH terms
- Optimism, Adult, Anxiety, Arousal, Female, Galvanic Skin Response, Humans, Male, Stress, Psychological, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
