Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events

Strunk, Daniel R.; Lopez, Howard; DeRubeis, Robert J.

doi:10.1016/j.brat.2005.07.001

Cited by 307Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive ProcessesOptimism, Hope, and Well-beingDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events

Strunk, Daniel R., Lopez, Howard, DeRubeis, Robert J.·2006·Behaviour Research and Therapy

DOI 10.1016/j.brat.2005.07.001

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Abstract

This study examined the relationship between depressive symptoms and bias in the prediction of future life events. Responding to internet announcements, 153 participants varying widely in self-reported depression symptom severity estimated the probability of 40 events occurring over the succeeding 30 days. After the 30-day period, participants reported which events occurred. Optimistic/pessimistic biases were related to level of depressive symptoms. A non-significant optimistic bias characterized participants with low depressive symptoms whereas a significant pessimistic bias characterized participants with high depressive symptoms. Those reporting mild symptoms did not exhibit a systematic pessimistic or optimistic bias. General imprecision in predictions for undesirable events was associated with depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that depression is associated with pessimistic bias rather than accuracy in judgment.

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“In other words, the more depressed the individual, the more likely they were to estimate their chances of encountering aversive events as greater (also see Strunk et al., 2006).”
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Authors: Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J.
Affiliations: University of Pennsylvania (US)
Corresponding author: Strunk, Daniel R.
ORCID: Strunk, Daniel R.
DeRubeis, Robert J.
Venue: Behaviour Research and Therapy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2006-06
Volume: 44
Issue: 6
Pages: 861-882
ISSN: 0005-7967 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.brat.2005.07.001
OpenAlex: W2083254456
Cited by: 307
References: 39
Citations by year: 2026: 15 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 12
FWCI: 3.02
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Behaviour Research and Therapy (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Keywords: depressive symptoms, pessimistic bias, optimism bias, prediction of future events, judgment accuracy, negative life events, probability estimation
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Depression, Female, Humans, Internal-External Control, Judgment, Life Change Events, Male, Middle Aged, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Psychometrics, Set, Psychology

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Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events

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